For a number of reasons— short fields, few dirt races at GP, sometimes only one two turn dirt race on the day, etc.— it was tough making figures this winter. (In general, the less data points you have, the tougher it is). I keep a list of the tricky races— the problem is you can't know whether you need to change it until several have run back.
I went through the Derby horses, and a few came out of the races on that list. You're going to see some changed numbers, so that's what it's about. We do that all the time, but it's not usually with GI horses so few people notice.
Derby/Oaks probables will be available late this week or the beginning of next week.
Thanks JB
thanks JB. Between the open length winners at Aqueduct and the limited races / small sample at GP, I have been scratching my head all winter/ spring at some of these dirt races across all figures. This is not an easy time for any figure maker and I don\'t envy the job.
Random question. In the simplest form, what is one to do with a lower to mid level horse that wins by open lengths? Upgrade the winner? Downgrade the field behind the horse? Or question how the track is playing? It feels like I have seen more outlier figures than ever, across all figure platforms, this last few months.
Disregard the lengths and look at the figures/ Most of those horses are running tops and are underpays the next time.
I would think that the FG horses have looked better as they\'ve fanned out to other tracks. The Holy Bull also looks like a key race.
When you go back and change the variant for a race, do you then review the races in which horses from that race ran back (to see if those variants should also be changed)?
If it's another race that's in doubt I do, yes. Otherwise no.
Holy Bull is a tricky one because you had Simplification blow the break and a poor ride by Irad (by his own admission). White Abarrio has looked good enough but I\'m not convinced he wants all of 10F.
I don\'t recall a derby in the last 8 years that I\'ve had more questions than answers at this stage.