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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on April 09, 2022, 02:58:36 PM

Title: Godolphin
Post by: TGJB on April 09, 2022, 02:58:36 PM
Just saying'

You guys can keep worrying about Baffert.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: Roman on April 09, 2022, 05:59:36 PM
Not only do I think you are right about Godolphin, and the Fishman call intercept's indicated that his horses are running unbelievably well due to a program that they are running involving PEDs, open source public information leans towards the Sheik running and financing undetectable PEDs programs on horses and camels.
My wife called Baffert a cheater and I explained to her that he has overages for therapeutic substances, not undetectable PEDs as far as we know. More of a rule infraction from incorrect withdrawal times from listed medicine. Hardly the only trainer that has them. Wesley ward has more than Baffert, and nobody is accusing him of cheating.

Would be very curious to see what the TG numbers show in regards to Goldophins runners and if there are red flags among them!
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: TGJB on April 09, 2022, 10:13:22 PM
Red skyscrapers. Let me know next time one doesn't run a top.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: prist on April 10, 2022, 07:41:49 AM
Well, I\'m still trying to figure out how LONG RANGE TODDY ran so well at Keeneland yesterday. Dallas Stewart ... your buddy.

I bet REINVESTMENT RISK as well. Was getting excited when he was at 9/1 on the board.

With that said, I had to play a exacta with the favorite on top as well. $16? I\'ll take it.

SPEAKER\'S CORNER is a beast.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: wrongly1 on April 10, 2022, 07:45:14 AM
Are you suggesting that Baffy hasn\'t been using EPO?  If you are then I feel very sorry for you.  Yes, this infraction is a joke but the guy is a criminal.  One look at Belmont day 2018.  The day racing died for me.  Note who also won that day!
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: Agastache on April 10, 2022, 04:23:51 PM
Matareya just aired for Godolphin in the Beaumont at Keeneland. I\'m no figure maker but if Radio Daze paired up, then Matareya probably earned a fig that would make her a Ky Oaks contender if they duplicate the route that Bird Town did several years ago. Regardless, Matareya was out of this world today.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: Fairmount1 on April 10, 2022, 04:40:34 PM
I know your posts are referencing more recent results.  But. . .

Charles Appleby, 2021.  18-9-3-1.  $5,818,966.  

I loved the comments I heard on TV and twitter about how Appleby had live runners to bring to the states last year. . . . Guy has quality horses and knows how to train \'em.  McLaughlin could never get those kind of runners when he was training I guess.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: hellersorr on April 10, 2022, 04:53:47 PM
And the trainer of Speaker\'s Corner and Nostalgic is William I. Mott, Esq.

I have no idea what that means - I\'m just mentioning it.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: TGJB on April 10, 2022, 05:35:39 PM
And it's worse than that. Appleby ran a bunch of entries and one of them had to
Lose.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: BitPlayer on April 11, 2022, 06:59:28 AM
Godolphin uses multiple trainers.  Are you seeing jump-ups for all of them?  If so, are they specific to the Godolphin horses or widespread in the trainer\'s barn?
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: TGJB on April 11, 2022, 07:37:24 AM
Specific to the Godolphin horses. Most of the published stats are for trainers, not owners, and that's how the program we worked on with the Jockey club works, as does our data base— we don't store owners, just trainers. But if someone has a way of looking at all their starters for the last 12 months I'd love to see it, just in conventional terms (win %).

Because they use different trainers the water is muddied, each trainers stats contain mostly starters for other owners (other than Appleby). But I would love to see Brendan Wash's numbers with Godolphin compared to with everyone else.

It's worth noting that if the trainers were doing something one would assume it would be with all their horses. Also that Godolphin has history.

I won't know til I do the day, but I think they finally had one not run a top yesterday, in the Top Flight.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: tucker on April 11, 2022, 07:53:22 AM
Frost Point was the Godolphin horse in the Top Flight at AQU yesterday. She broke through the gate prior to the start and had to be reloaded.  So yes she probably wont have a new top. Of course I had a win bet on her.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: BitPlayer on April 12, 2022, 01:05:46 PM
This probably isn\'t exactly what you are looking for, but I found it interesting.

Equibase does provide some owner statistics.  In general, they are hard to deal with because an owner\'s stats are not always lumped together.  Rather, if they own horses in partnership, that partnership\'s horses are accounted for separately.  Godolphin does not, however, seem to be doing a lot of partnering these days.

For 2022, in 118 starts Godolphin runners have posted a win percentage of 18% and an ITM percentage of 46%.  For 2021, the numbers were 479, 18%, and 53%.

Brendan Walsh\'s 2022 overall numbers (I don\'t see a way to break out the Goldophin runners) are similar to Godolphin\'s: 161, 18%, 46%.  Brad Cox has better numbers: 244, 23%, 58%.  Mike Stidham\'s numbers are worse: 90, 9%, 40%.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: confused on April 12, 2022, 02:20:00 PM
Brad Cox is a god....possibly the greatest trainer ever.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: kencbs on April 12, 2022, 02:31:09 PM
According to Godolphin\'s own web site -

894 runs worldwide this year
150 wins - 17%
39 stakes wins
3 G1 wins
20% overall win rate since 1992

I didn\'t see any breakdown by country or by trainer
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: Fairmount1 on April 15, 2022, 07:22:57 PM
JB,

I\'ll send Walsh-Godolphin when I can obtain it but can not just yet.

Bill Mott (who has one in tomorrow at Kee) is 11 for 35 for 31 percent winners the past 5 months with Godolphin horses and 66 percent in the money with a $2.84 ROI.

Over the past 2 months with Godolphin horses, he is 6 for 14 for 43% winners and 71 percent in the money with a $3.83 ROI.  

I actually have believed for many years that certain owners have different protocols with their horses that they force upon trainers.  I do not know this to be true but performance differences within barns by owner has often been something I\'ve noticed for many moons.  A recent example I would be interested in running the numbers on would be Flying P for Morley as compared to his other owners.  

I\'ll send out Walsh when I can but it will require a Walsh entry owned by Godolphin before I can.
Title: Re: Godolphin
Post by: Fairmount1 on April 15, 2022, 07:41:20 PM
As for your exact request of the past year as it relates to Mott:

Mott is 99 for 612 overall for a 16 percent win percentage with all owners including Godolphin.

Mott is 18 for 85 with Godolphin for a 21 percent win percentage the past year.  

Subtracting out those 18 for 85 results in an 81 for 527 record which is a 15.3% win rate the past year for non-Godolphin owned horses.  

The more recent 2 month and 5 month results really point out what you are saying at least with Mott.  

Walsh in the near future as I said.