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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jbelfior on March 11, 2022, 07:16:35 PM

Title: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: jbelfior on March 11, 2022, 07:16:35 PM
Grantham is interesting at anything close to his 20-1 ML.

Not a bad pattern and comes out of the 1 1/8 Withers where he middle moved wide vs the runaway Chad horse.

Battles on gamely in the lane with the Rebel bomber.

Could get underneath tomorrow at a big number for Maker with Sammy Macho Camacho aboard.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: Tavasco on March 12, 2022, 07:46:33 AM
Hurricane warnings. Lots of high winds and some heavy rain on and off. I\'m thinking the weather will affect the outcome.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: confused on March 12, 2022, 08:23:13 AM
Shipsational over Happy Boy Rocket, Classic Causeway and Giant Game.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: statuette on March 12, 2022, 02:44:24 PM
Nice call
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: prist on March 12, 2022, 04:13:58 PM
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Grantham is interesting at anything close to his
> 20-1 ML.

Nice handicapping, Joe.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: Gary Irish on March 12, 2022, 07:19:19 PM
Hello Joe

Yeah, the Maker colt helped me. Not in a real time monetary way but I will explain.

Having entered the Hawthorne Spring Stakes Showdown, a free contest with a 20 WP format, and having no contest experience, I missed the fact there were more than one contest on some weeks, so I missed out on an obvious $40 when I selected just one winner (Green Light Go) neglecting to use another mare who won at 1/2.

I moved up at least 200 spots with the $180 place mutuel. Maybe millions of people go by, but they all disappear from view.

Sha bop sha bop.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: statuette on March 12, 2022, 07:59:45 PM
Good luck Gary I moved up as well now 280s having 226
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: Gary Irish on March 13, 2022, 06:54:49 AM
Good luck to you as well!

The email I got from Hawthorne says I am 80th (of 1144) with $328. The leader has $526. Lots of time to make it up.

Say hello if you are in Cicero on a Saturday. I sit in the last row of the cubicle desks with my back facing the track. I am the one with the sheets, which I like to spread out. No one uses anything but the DRF DRP and house Program, so that should make it easy to pick me out.

I still wear my yellow \"Los Angeles\" baseball cap purchased on Venice Beach back in 2012. Yes, it has been washed a few times.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: statuette on March 13, 2022, 08:25:51 AM
I use to go to the Joliet otb I can't travel much.funny story my wife grew up across sportsman had some stories lol
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: jbelfior on March 13, 2022, 10:09:36 AM
Go get \'em Gary.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: prist on March 13, 2022, 05:52:24 PM
I was a little surprised when the Beyer came back a rather pedestrian 84 for this race. I then looked at the pace. Things seem to really slow down after 2f.

Raw Beyers
2f: 73
4f: 48
6f: 63
8f: 81
8.5f: 83

Nice workout for the winner.

I\'m not a figure maker. I only play one at Thoro-Graph. :-)
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: Boscar Obarra on March 13, 2022, 06:14:29 PM
I\'m not, just eyeballing the  other races and the times , and watching.

 No one asked for anything until pretty late in the race.  Cakewalk for the winner, best or not.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: prist on March 14, 2022, 06:36:08 AM
A long time ago I wrote a spreadsheet that combined the Beyer methodology with some of the work done by Huey Mahl and Howard Sartin. Remember turn-time?

Turn-time
4f-6f: 91

FWIW, the turn-time is in line with his Beyer top.

Jay Privman did a little rundown of this race at the Daily Racing Form.

Tampa Bay Derby (https://www.drf.com/news/road-2022-kentucky-derby-tampa-bay-derby-analysis)
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby time
Post by: BitPlayer on March 14, 2022, 07:56:26 AM
Craig Milkowski\'s Twitter feed indicates there were timing issues that affected the race:

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/status/1503073352616972288
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby time
Post by: prist on March 14, 2022, 08:56:13 AM
I would have never known. I try to avoid anything Jack Dorsey is/was associated with.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: prist on March 14, 2022, 05:45:14 PM
I think SPIN WHEEL ran a buried race. I hope to see him spinning his wheels in the winners circle sometime soon. Should be a huge price wherever he turns up.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: Gary Irish on March 20, 2022, 05:01:17 PM
I think I am like a lot of people in that I want to read about the sport I love.

Most interesting (to me) are the human interest posts. Fairmont1 last is a great post. It reads like a story. Cannot get enough.

I hesitated to give an update on my contest status because I consciously try to avoid writing about myself. The ex\'s \"Self-centered jerk\" criticism hit hard because it is of course true. I hope not the jerk part.

With that out of the way I am pleased to say I moved up 27 spots, from 80th to 53rd. Better still is the money gap went from $198 behind to $155.

There were two races this week and thankfully I posted choices in each. I got the best result when the TAP/Irad colt won the Hutchinson, but got blanked when the Gaines filly ran third in the Irish O\'Brien.

Thanks for the up vote Joe. I need all the friends I can get.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: statuette on March 20, 2022, 05:21:36 PM
I was just about to ask how you are doing in the contest  blindly took that #5 trying to beat the fav and got blanked in the Santa Anita race moved up $94 2 weeks ago I was at the bottom now in 242 place lol
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: Gary Irish on March 20, 2022, 06:14:41 PM
This is my first foray (I love using words for the first time) into the contest world. I hold no false hope. But I was sent picks for the (3/19) Anita card by a previous Big Hair winner, and realize I have as much chance as this guy.

I am distraught the LA Derby is not among the three contest races 3/26. I have a vested interest in the outcome, as in qualifying points.

His name rhymes with Battle N Bowl.
Title: Re: Tampa Bay Derby
Post by: statuette on March 20, 2022, 07:19:06 PM
Good luck my first contest as well and good on the points