Runhappy must have covered a lot of mares!
https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/33211981/texas-salesman-mattress-mack-places-45-million-bet-cincinnati-bengals-spring-super-bowl-lvi-upset
I think he bet on a winner. Joe Burrow looks like the real deal.
Bad bets win sometimes.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m expecting to take a (very) small % of Mack\'s money when Caesars pays off my Rams -3.5 bet. I also got a free bet before the conference championshp that pays +210 on the Rams winning the Super Bowl.
People are really underestimating the huge advantage the Rams have sitting home at nights in the Super Bowl city & never having to travel. That\'s 3 weeks at home (they last traveled for the Tampa game)versus no home games for the Bengals this postseason. While the crowd won\'t provide a typical home field advantage, just the far less hectic 2 weeks before the game for the 2nd straight home team in the Super Bowl will make the Rams very tough to beat.
Last year I thought Tampa was a lock for the same reasons & I didn\'t bet the game. I\'m not making that mistake 2 years in a row.
The Bengals coaching staff formed a new defensive game plan at halftime against the Chiefs and almost completely shut them down. They\'ve got a big edge in coaching. They should win.
100%
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m expecting to take a (very) small % of Mack\'s
> money when Caesars pays off my Rams -3.5 bet. I
> also got a free bet before the conference
> championshp that pays +210 on the Rams winning the
> Super Bowl.
> People are really underestimating the huge
> advantage the Rams have sitting home at nights in
> the Super Bowl city & never having to travel.
> That\'s 3 weeks at home (they last traveled for the
> Tampa game)versus no home games for the Bengals
> this postseason. While the crowd won\'t provide a
> typical home field advantage, just the far less
> hectic 2 weeks before the game for the 2nd
> straight home team in the Super Bowl will make the
> Rams very tough to beat.
> Last year I thought Tampa was a lock for the same
> reasons & I didn\'t bet the game. I\'m not making
> that mistake 2 years in a row.
TB won because the KC OL was a mess.
Being at home is nice, but teams lose all the time playing at home. Its a 2 week break from the last game, Cincinnati will get to LA in plenty of time. Travel will be a non-issue.
Travel didn\'t bother them last week in KC, in fact they dominated the 2H.
SF played 6 of 8 games on the road going into the LAR game. Travel didn\'t really affect them either.
confused Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Bengals coaching staff formed a new defensive
> game plan at halftime against the Chiefs and
> almost completely shut them down. They\'ve got a
> big edge in coaching. They should win.
Super Bowl teams that have won fewer games than their opponents are 13-2 ATS since 2001.
The 2 losses were the Oakland meltdown in SD when their center went AWOL and the other coach knew their signals (I was there, that entire week for me is a story in itself), and Atlanta who blew the biggest lead in SB history.
9 of the past 12 have gone Under, 5 of the last 6 with the lone Over being the Atlanta meltdown which went Over in OT
Go RAMS! Very exciting in Los Angeles these days. Both coaching staffs are young and aggressive. Neither will be caught flat-footed in the second half.
I took 10-1 for decent money on the Rams about a month before the end of the season, based on the premise that they were built to beat top QBs (they can get pressure without having to blitz). As it turned out they didn't have to deal with Rogers or Mahones, and Brady had no weapons. And all of these playoff games have really been coin tosses anyway. So I'm not claiming to have been right.
Anyway, it's an easy hedge from here if I want it.
Full disclosure— took a little Titans back then too.
McVay can't possibly have that bad a game again... right?
I know a "bungles" fan who took them @ 150-1 before the season
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I took 10-1 for decent money on the Rams about a
> month before the end of the season, based on the
> premise that they were built to beat top QBs (they
> can get pressure without having to blitz). As it
> turned out they didn't have to deal with Rogers
> or Mahones, and Brady had no weapons. And all of
> these playoff games have really been coin tosses
> anyway. So I'm not claiming to have been right.
>
> Anyway, it's an easy hedge from here if I want
> it.
>
> Full discourse— took a little Titans back then
> too.
>
> McVay can't possibly have that bad a game
> again... right?
Horses......and coaches...can be perplexing........even with the best data.
Decent money sounds like hedge time.
If you do hedge, do you grab +175 or +4.5 for a possible scoop??
I've had that conversation with some friends. I'm inclined to bet less and take it as a straight up hedge. In general,I don't like points, I try to find occasional dogs that I think have a good chance yo win outright. Which has the obvious benefit of limiting the number of games I bet.
And the guy who never uses visual observation with horses does 90% that with football.
I know you like and watch basketball. Do you ever bet?
I barely even watch it any more, pretty much just March Madness and the playoffs.
LA Rams by 3, so i will be betting Cincinnati +4.5, passing on the money line due to LA being -200, will probably parlay Cincinnati and the over at 48.5. Will be a good game regardless, Cincinnati is playing lights out, Burrows is a stud, and LA has a ton of talent and playmakers. Good luck to all!
The public bets with their eyes, that's why they lose.
For me it's all about data and situational plays.
I agree. Here\'s how I see it. The Rams are likely to put up in the neighborhood of 31 points. Yes,I know what the Bengals defense did in the second half last week but it doesn\'t take away from the fact that it\'s an average defense at best.
So if you think Joe Burrow & Co. can put up 27 or more with that O-line vs that pass rush then have at it.
Good Luck,
Joe B
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I barely even watch it any more, pretty much just
> March Madness and the playoffs.
I haven\'t followed, or watched, much of any sports for years.
I just turned on the Pro Bowl and can\'t believe what I\'m seeing. They\'re playing touch football!
How long has this been going on?
I suspect Butkus will have something to say about this on his favorite new social media platform. :-)
prist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I barely even watch it any more, pretty much
> just
> > March Madness and the playoffs.
>
> I haven\'t followed, or watched, much of any sports
> for years.
>
> I just turned on the Pro Bowl and can\'t believe
> what I\'m seeing. They\'re playing touch football!
>
> How long has this been going on?
>
> I suspect Butkus will have something to say about
> this on his favorite new social media platform.
> :-)
Other than Sean Taylor destroying a punter, its been this way for years
Not sure if they sold but Prop Swap had Bengals 300/1 ticket listed. Craziest Super Bowl odds ever. Burrow is a stud but they're terrible upfront. That's an issue vs this Rams team. I think both teams might have a hard time moving the ball. I like the under. And probably will take the points though I like the Rams to win a close lower scoring game. MVP props spreading money on the Rams defensive players is something I'll mess around with as well. Should be a good game regardless.
Ja\'Marr Chase \"IS\" the Real Deal.
\"
'F it, Ja'Marr's down there somewhere, I'm just gonna throw it up to him and he's gonna make a play.\'"
Reminds me of a young moss
He has a much bigger route tree than Moss
Bad beat for both Mack & me. Mack loses at the end of the game, I don\'t cover because of a missed extra point.
I\'m going back to racing. I suggest Mack does the same.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bad beat for both Mack & me. Mack loses at the
> end of the game, I don\'t cover because of a missed
> extra point.
>
> I\'m going back to racing. I suggest Mack does the
> same.
How do you handicap for penalty flags?
It should have been Rams 4th & goal with just under 2:00 to play. But for some reason the ref throws a flag at #55 after \"letting them play\" for the entire game.
There\'s a million ways to get screwed in a horse race, but how can you bet on something that can be so heavily influenced by penalty flags?
Agree especially on the same play the whole offensive line moved prior to the snap.
Bengals got away with one on there TD as well with the face mask.
Agree on your point though.
I think there were six flags thrown for the entire game. Half of those came with less than two minutes to play. Ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as the halftime show ... almost. :-)
prist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> how can you bet on something that can be
> so heavily influenced by penalty flags?
Flags, fouls, balls/strikes, etc.. will go for and against you. Shit happens in every form of competition.
Some wins and losses are directly influenced by a call, its part of the deal.
You bet on situations that are +EV, you\'ll win.
That\'s two disastrous SB coaching jobs by McVay. His defense and defensive coordinators bailed him out. Continuing to run the ball in the second half = the definition of insanity.
The pass TO Stafford was schoolyard level.
Despite that, it took a missed PAT for the Bengals to cover. Don\'t want to hear about the nonsense at the end. The no call OPI at the start of the second half was the \"sawed off at the start.\"
As I posted earlier last week, even bad bets win sometimes.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That\'s two disastrous SB coaching jobs by McVay.
> His defense and defensive coordinators bailed him
> out. Continuing to run the ball in the second half
> = the definition of insanity.
>
> The pass TO Stafford was schoolyard level.
>
> Despite that, it took a missed PAT for the Bengals
> to cover. Don\'t want to hear about the nonsense at
> the end. The no call OPI at the start of the
> second half was the \"sawed off at the start.\"
>
> As I posted earlier last week, even bad bets win
> sometimes.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Cincinnati was far from a bad bet. There were several situational data points that pointed to Cincinnati as a play.
They matched them on the stat sheet except for 2 TOs. They each got a gift that turned into a TD.
They sacked Burrow 7 times and were still life and death to hold on and win.
Cincinnati backers collected the money from their good bet
Yes, the arbitrary penalty flags and missed extra points, etc., makes it so that even with all its faults, I still pretty much limit my wagering to four-legged athletes over the two-legged ones.
It became a better bet when OBJ went down. They had no answer for him. McVay then insisted on running the ball on 2nd/3rd down short situations most likely because he felt that was the better option. Carrying that strategy into the 4th quarter? Again, the definition of insanity.
Not sure if one of the situational data points included the guy who was on his way to winning the game\'s MVP going down in the second quarter.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It became a better bet when OBJ went down. They
> had no answer for him. McVay then insisted on
> running the ball on 2nd/3rd down short situations
> most likely because he felt that was the better
> option. Carrying that strategy into the 4th
> quarter? Again, the definition of insanity.
>
> Not sure if one of the situational data points
> included the guy who was on his way to winning the
> game\'s MVP going down in the second quarter.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
To assume that OBJ was going to continue to do that is ridiculous. You must have missed the KC game....but I\'ll wait for you to tell me how bad of a coach Andy Reid is too.
Lots of situational data pointed to Cinn covering if not an outright win. You trying to sound smarter than the winning coach doesn\'t change that
It was a great bet before, during, and after the game.
I understand why the flags came in at the end of the game & not before: With the Bengals up by 4, a FG wasn\'t enough, so the Rams had to go for the TD. Since the Rams were running out of time the Bengals decided the best strategy was to hold on every play with the intent of doing everything necessary to stop the Rams from getting the TD. Since they were obviously grabbing jerseys (all the replays showed the fabric stretching in the hand of the defensive players) the refs understood the Bengals strategy & could no longer just let them play. They had to call the penalties.
I\'m a Bills fan & I can give you two examples from this season. In the Bills Tampa game the Bucs held Diggs in the endzone & no call was made in the final part of regulation. Bills fans went nuts because it was obvious that Tampa got away with a strategic penalty, which in that case wasn\'t even called. In the famous 13 second KC playoff game the Bills coaches were criticized for not taking holding penalties at the line of scrimage at the end of regulation.
Years ago I was at a Bills game vs the 49ers. It was at the end of the 1st half & the 49ers just kept getting pass interference calls until there was only enough time left for the Bills to kick a field goal before halftime.
Since everyone knows this strategy late in games/halves is deployed to keep the opponent from getting a TD, the refs have to respond with greater vigilance at that point in the game. That\'s exactly what they did & it was the right thing to do. The Rams overcame it with a quick pass because they figured out what Cincy was doing too.
Congrats on being right P-Dub. Now you\'re only one behind a broken watch.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I understand why the flags came in at the end of
> the game & not before: With the Bengals up by 4, a
> FG wasn\'t enough, so the Rams had to go for the
> TD. Since the Rams were running out of time the
> Bengals decided the best strategy was to hold on
> every play with the intent of doing everything
> necessary to stop the Rams from getting the TD.
> Since they were obviously grabbing jerseys (all
> the replays showed the fabric stretching in the
> hand of the defensive players) the refs understood
> the Bengals strategy & could no longer just let
> them play. They had to call the penalties.
>
> I\'m a Bills fan & I can give you two examples from
> this season. In the Bills Tampa game the Bucs
> held Diggs in the endzone & no call was made in
> the final part of regulation. Bills fans went
> nuts because it was obvious that Tampa got away
> with a strategic penalty, which in that case
> wasn\'t even called. In the famous 13 second KC
> playoff game the Bills coaches were criticized for
> not taking holding penalties at the line of
> scrimage at the end of regulation.
>
> Years ago I was at a Bills game vs the 49ers. It
> was at the end of the 1st half & the 49ers just
> kept getting pass interference calls until there
> was only enough time left for the Bills to kick a
> field goal before halftime.
>
> Since everyone knows this strategy late in
> games/halves is deployed to keep the opponent from
> getting a TD, the refs have to respond with
> greater vigilance at that point in the game.
> That\'s exactly what they did & it was the right
> thing to do. The Rams overcame it with a quick
> pass because they figured out what Cincy was doing
> too.
This strategy only makes sense when you\'re trying to run out the clock.
When you employ this strategy, you don\'t kinda hold or kinda PI. You make it obvious, because the sole intent is to bleed the clock.
Cincinnati wasn\'t in that situation, and the 3rd down call was awful.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Congrats on being right P-Dub. Now you\'re only one
> behind a broken watch.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
I\'m right far more often that you.
I have posted far more winning tickets and winning football plays on this forum than most people.
But go ahead and use that lame and tired broken watch comment. Its so original
On a side note do the refs work as judges at the track in the off-season?