Thanks for the sheets, Jerry. Much appreciated.
Looks like Slim Pickens in the Malibu. Probably best to pass, but ...
The only potential value I see comes from the two horses that last raced at Mahoning Valley.
TIMELESS BOUNTY looks like he\'s going to bounce to the moon, but you never know. That last race is buried and has to be worth something. What\'s it worth? I landed on 12/1. Maybe 15/1.
BABY YODA has the big number three back and is coming off a tough trip. He may rebound and could offer value if the price drifts up off the two poor efforts. The ML is accurate on this one at 6/1.
Merry Christmas.
prist Wrote:
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> Thanks for the sheets, Jerry. Much appreciated.
>
> Looks like Slim Pickens in the Malibu. Probably
> best to pass, but ...
>
> The only potential value I see comes from the two
> horses that last raced at Mahoning Valley.
>
> TIMELESS BOUNTY looks like he\'s going to bounce to
> the moon, but you never know. That last race is
> buried and has to be worth something. What\'s it
> worth? I landed on 12/1. Maybe 15/1.
>
> BABY YODA has the big number three back and is
> coming off a tough trip. He may rebound and could
> offer value if the price drifts up off the two
> poor efforts. The ML is accurate on this one at
> 6/1.
>
> Merry Christmas.
Is Baby Yoda the ultimate horse for a course? He has 6 races, 2 at the SPA and 4 elsewhere. In ALL 4 elsewhere races, this horse has had issues at the start (at least one trouble designation if not more). His only meaningful forward moves have been the two races at the SPA. His worst race at the SPA is significantly better than his best race anywhere else. His only win that was not at the SPA, was against 10k maiden claimers (prices, OK, i.e. that is not a typo).
It seems to me that this horse needs to run at Saratoga or places like Saratoga (Oaklawn, Keeneland). Beauty of running this horse at Oaklawn is I think he gets lasix in the stakes races (his two Saratoga races were lasix races). In the Malibu, he does not get Lasix, and he is running against monsters with whom he cannot afford any antics at the start. My take on this horse is that he will probably disappoint on Sunday, but hopefully the connections will not lose faith and will send him to Oaklawn and his form may be concealed enough by then that a good price can be had when he is spotted correctly.
What would we saying about Baby Yoda\'s Saratoga number if it wasn\'t Mott?
Merry Christmas to all of the Thorograph world.
May life\'s photo finishes all go your way.
Thank you TGJB & team for another wonderful gift!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> What would we saying about Baby Yoda\'s Saratoga
> number if it wasn\'t Mott?
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Your question sure does give me pause. My first thought was to consider the ownership before I even realized Mott was the current trainer. IMO, Wachtel can occasionally be optimistic in the placement of their stakes horses and or young developing horses. I figured it was a function of a bad figure here or there and consequent pattern distortion.
Generally, the owners\' are astute with more experienced horses where they have a bigger data set to rely on. Isn\'t Mott a new addition to the owner\'s team? It Beg\'s the question who is calling the shots? We don\'t expect Mott to misplace entries very often, certainly not away from New York.
Consequently, I read the entry of Baby Yoda as a positive. I don\'t think the Owners nor the Trainer would risk expense money without confidence in a profit.
I\'ll toss Baby Yoda\'s last two races. In the Voburg he was just in too deep and I figured him to regress. At Mahoning Valley, too many horses, too crowded, and an unfamiliar place didn\'t help the colt. Unable to control the race and then trouble in the crowd.
Now, SoCal. Field size probably won\'t cause any problem so I think we can see him get back to his best. Even that is somewhat problematic. The competition; Flightline obviously presents a MAJOR problem. But. one doesn\'t have to win to make a profit. With a $300K purse, I\'d want to be confident of 2nd or third to ship (unless there is some long game I\'m unaware of?)
So it seems, can one expect to beat Dr. Schivel (who is fast and consistent) and A Baffert that is who knows how good? plus a couple of others that are not Tomato Cans
Bottom Line - The connections may know something that gives them a positive financial expectation but @ 6/1 early line I\'ll be damned if I can see anything for the Bettor? C/B Flightline goes to 1/5 and Baby Yoda to 20/1. The favorite goes wrong and BY gets into a crazy exacta or trifecta payoff. Yeah, I rarely buy Powerball tickets rarely and not for any more than $4.
Edit - I did not realize Baby Yoda\'s best was as fast as it evidently is. So obviously a repeat of his top makes him a contender. But I won\'t be on him.
Edit #2 - Conclusion - Bill Mott knows what he\'s doing. The owners know what they are doing by hiring Bill Mott.
Merry Christmas and as always TY for the gift.
GL to all.
Says Flightline is a major bet-against:
https://twitter.com/goofonroof/status/1475105210301399051
Wish I had a nickel for every person on Twitter who didn\'t think Hot Rod Charlie could lose or that Flighline could win.
Good Luck,
Joe B
GP and SA analysis each had a big BB winner today.
GP5: BB5th Turf-Bipartisanship is developing nicely & is in capable hands. Bipartisanship to win/place @ 8-1 & up.
$40 winner
SA 11: BB11th Turf. Play against Going Global who posted big jump up in last. Queen Goddess to win at 8-1 or better. 3H exacta box adding Ivy League and
Fluffy Socks. Dirt-Closing Remarks
At 14-1 played Queen Goddess on the dirt.
$31.20 winner
Well done and thank you. Took the sting out of losing the NYG/Phil and Pitt/KC Unders today
Fractional Times: 22.01 44.48 1:08.72 Final Time: 1:21.37
Split Times: (22:47) (24:24) (12:65)
Did the Beyer come out yet?
11.5 lengths is worth around 24 points on the Beyer scale at 7f.
The Beyer could come back in the mid 120\'s if BABY YODA and STILLETO BOY ran around a 100BSF.
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