Anyone think PLAINSMAN has a shot in here?
He was doing some good things leading up to the troubled trip in the Bold Ruler. Throw that race out and he looks interesting at the ML price, IMHO.
Has a competitive top if a couple in here cooperate and bounce (AMERICANREVOLUTION & INDEPENDENCE HALL.)
I haven\'t worked out the odds yet, but something around 9/1 looks about right on PLAINSMAN.
Interesting race.
Any thoughts?
prist Wrote:
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> Anyone think PLAINSMAN has a shot in here?
>
> He was doing some good things leading up to the
> troubled trip in the Bold Ruler. Throw that race
> out and he looks interesting at the ML price,
> IMHO.
>
> Has a competitive top if a couple in here
> cooperate and bounce (AMERICANREVOLUTION &
> INDEPENDENCE HALL.)
>
> I haven\'t worked out the odds yet, but something
> around 9/1 looks about right on PLAINSMAN.
>
> Interesting race.
>
> Any thoughts?
I dont like the race at all. Problem is the short horses don\'t have to bounce. The favorite has never bounced. Scary to give a horse his first bounce. Not saying I would want to bet on him, but scary to throw him out. Independence Hall even more scary. He has now run his top fig a bunch of times -- When he ran it as a 2yo, it was a crazy outlying figure -- at the start of his 4 year old season (which was really 3rd back from layoff) -- you could see a bounce off that -- but he has now come back to it third time....this time he ran it off a secondary top you could have bounced him off of but he moved forward instead of bouncing.....this looks like his level now....there are no Knicks Gos in here who was the horse that beat him in the secondary top. I think he is the horse to beat and is unlikely to run a positive number (i.e. I think you can expect him to run a negative number). I also find the turn back from two turns to one turn and a shorter distance a very powerful angle -- horse definitely liked this configuration in that monster 2yo top.
Realize giving you the two top choices aint so helpful, but even if they falter, there are other horses in here that have license to pop big ones -- Following Sea after hitting dead rail in race after he came back to a very strong top -- very hard to know what to make of Mott\'s horse (low weight and Irad riding) -- even Code of Honor could throw up a big one (unlikely i think, but the crowd thinks so also, so you get paid if he does). The Cox horse you like is certainly very reliable and will fire a number that will but him close at the end, but there are any number of contenders in here that could fire into territory he has not touched and is unlikely to get to. Doesnt mean he wont be value in the exotics, but hard to see him on top. Only thing I feel good about is that the west coast shipper should run up the track. If he is 7-2, at least he will take some money with him.
If you play your horse, I would definitely want to cover with him hitting the exotics but not the top spot.
Going with Mott's horse. Second fastest at the weights with Irad. 10-1 seems more than fair. I do think both AMERICANREVOLUTION and INDEPENDENCE HALL will bounce. AMERICANREVOLUTION off a 5 point top in the slop, which I'm always dubious of slop tops, and INDEPENDENCE HALL coming in off of a paired top which he last ran back in January. Nothing leads me to believe he'll run back to that figure today off of 5 weeks rest. Any of the others have as good a chance to run in the tri. They're a point or so slower than the fastest but they're at least consistent. Of the little bit I've witnessed of Baltas' runners in California, his horses are outrunning their figures. I'm wary of him shipping in for this.
Somebody's going to get hurt up there.
Good call on Plainsman.
Well, that was fun. :-)
Perfect trip for 6 furlongs.
And then it was the final lap at Daytona. What's up with that? That BS Irad pulled with Mo Donegal should get him days. Time he can serve concurrently for riding Moreno into the rail the day before.
From the Paulick Report. I couldn't agree more.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/view-from-the-eighth-pole-irad-ortiz-jr-s-reckless-ride-a-litmus-test-for-stewards/
I agree, I thought there was was enough to take down AmerRev. That ride on Friday has to cost him days, even if over the holidays.
Nice call. A better jock may have made a difference.
The challenge is always trying to figure which figure the Cox horse will run to.
Good Luck,
Joe B