• Only six in the Sprint and Juvenile Fillies – never been one Breeders' Cup race with less than seven, let alone two.
• Most will say the Europeans drew poorly in the Juvenile Turf with Modern Games (5/1) on the rail (which I do not mind too much - think Mendelssohn) and Dubawi Legend (4/1) in post 14. It looked like they had predetermined the morning line odds regardless of post, so the 4/1 morning line on Dubawi Legend did not have the post considered into it.
• The two favorites bookend the Juvenile with Jack Christopher (9/5) drawing the rail and then Corniche (5/2) on the extreme outside in post 12.
• In the Juvenile Fillies Turf the four outside fillies likely drew poorly – they are all at fairly medium odds. Haughty (10/1), Malavath (8/1), Mise En Scene (6/1), and California Angel (8/1). I do not mind the rail nearly as much, especially in a turf race, but I know there will be rumblings about the lukewarm morning line favorite of 5/1 on the rail in Pizza Bianca. There are 12 horses between the morning line of 5/1 and 12/1 – that is a LOT of contention.
• Have not seen the TG numbers yet, but was surprised that Albahr was not made the favorite in the Juvenile Turf – the morning line of 6/1 was higher than I thought it would be. Another contentious race as half the field s between 4/1 and 8/1.
• While Echo Zulu (4/5) looks like a beast, I like the draw for Tarabi (12/1) along with a morning line. Not sure why I was surprised Hidden Connection was the co-second choice at 5/2 along with Juju's Map in the Juvenile Fillies.
• It was a bit of a surprise to me that Golden Pal had a morning line of 7/2 as I thought it would be lower for Turf Sprint. Was also a bit surprised that Kimari was as low as 6/1. I guess that is a bit of a tip of the hat to Ward. Fast Bost might be worth a look as 12/1.
• What have been more appropriate if Eight Rings, who drew the number 8 post would have been installed at 8/1 in the morning line. Life is Good will be the heavy favorite at 4/5 (or less).
• Already confusing enough to have two "Love" horses entered the FM Turf but making them both 4/1 in the morning line makes it even tougher. They sandwich the favorite War Like Goddess, who is 7/2. Audarya (5/1) probably got the worst post in number 12 there.
• Bella Sofia (5/2) drew outside Gamine (3/5), which may give her a tactical advantage. Only four others bothered to take them on in this short field of six.
• Thought the favorite Space Blues (3/1) drew well in in post 3 as he was going to have to find a seam anyways in that race. Maybe he gets to sit in the pocket and find a seam late although those European 7f specialist have rarely done well in this race. This is probably the race where a good draw becomes most important, so I would say Ivar and Casa Creed likely got the worst in post 14 and 13 respectively. It may not be so bad for Casa Creed as he was likely going to dip in early and then dip out late but for Ivar it could present some issues.
• Letruska only 8/5 in the distaff? Have to think she will be much closer to even money than 8/5. Thought that was an odd morning line. Private Mission (8/1) was a go from the bell no matter where she drew, but she has to get out and on top from the rail I think.
• While Teona (6/1) did not draw well in the 12 hole, she did better than defending champion Tarnawa (9/5) in the 13 hole. Japan (20/1) drew the worst likely with post 14. Acclimate and Tribhuvan drew right next to each other and will likely assure a fairly quick pace early.
• Jackie's Warrior (6/5) drew the 2 post right outside Following Sea (6/1). Was a bit surprised Special Reserve was as high as 6/1 – those two seem like the two most likely to press the favorite early.
• Not sure posts matter too much in the Classic with only nine entered and a long run to the first turn to sort things out. Thought Knicks Go was going to go to 2/1, but 5/2 makes sense in this field. The 3YO then make up the next lowest odds - Essential Quality (3/1), Medina Spirit (4/1) and Hot Rod Charlie (4/1).
Post mattered at Parx where Medina Spirit scratched b/c of post 9, but draws post 8 and likely there will be no mention of the post by his trainer.
Asmussen on a cold streak like we haven\'t seen and Baffert horses are huge question marks with different rules for him.
No Lasix and one must pay attention to ones that have been successful without it already.
Agree with you about Mendelsohn comparison as a potential rail draw winner and will also point out two outter posts did well in the Juvy Fillies Turf in \'17 running 1st and 3rd at Del Mar.
Looking at the history of the Juvenile Fillies Turf race, Post 14 is 10-0-1-0-1 while Post 1 is 13-0-1-0-0. For the male version of that race, Post 14 is 9-1-0-0-2, while the rail is 14-1-1-1-1. In that race, 4/14 winners came from post 12 or out. Obviously small sample size.
Remember the last BC at Del Mar featured a dead rail where outside posts were better. Lots to play out. Supposedly its all about the tides.
ur kidding right? lol
Chas04 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ur kidding right? lol
From a Chicago newspaper article in 2015 about Del Mar --
Harper said they actually did have an issue once with the slush from the San Dieguito Lagoon creeping up through the dirt. Hall of Fame jockey Chris McCarron rode a horse around the far turn and returned screaming about the muck along the rail.
\"It was like chocolate pudding out there in one spot along the rail,\" Harper said. \"McCarron came back yelling that it was the worst track he ever rode on and that he was packing up and leaving. I went down to the jock\'s room, and we all looked over at Bill Shoemaker, who was putting on his silks like nothing happened. We asked him what he thought, and Shoe suggested putting a big white chalk line around the muck so jockeys would go around it. The next race, Shoe rode the rail and won going right through the muck while all the other jockeys went around it. I told Shoe, \'I don\'t think you\'ll get away with that one again.\'\"
https://magicseaweed.com/Del-Mar-Surf-Report/3707/Tide/
This was mentioned by a clocker on a pod cast as well.
I shall watch and sea
Shoe? He was racing in the 60s LOL. Come on man. The tracks has all modern science can utilize.
But are you looking for? A deadish rail again and posts from the outside do better.
tides are 100% a thing. However near impossible to handicap. Bruno (assuming that was the podcast referenced) is a clown.
bruno sleeps in his car. guys on here are playing and winning the bcbc. come on man big boy pants time. tides mean 0.0. lets get to real stuff.
also playing in the contest and am 25% concerned about the track... but I dont need read tide charts. Just play what the track is doing leading up.
Chas04 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shoe? He was racing in the 60s LOL. Come on man.
> The tracks has all modern science can utilize.
OK \"MAN.\" You sound like Biden.
I am quoting an article from 2015. Not the 60\'s and it was interesting at least to those like me who have been involved in racing and knew these guys unlike I am sure --you.
It's funny not even on a racing site can we do without the politics lol
I did not vote for Biden and yes I didn\'t see Shoe race but you are comparing Del Mars surface in the 1960\'s to the surface next weekend. I think things have changed.
Chas04 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I did not vote for Biden and yes I didn\'t see Shoe
> race but you are comparing Del Mars surface in the
> 1960\'s to the surface next weekend. I think things
> have changed.
But that post was saying the \"muck\" didn\'t mean anything as Shoe ran right through it. So it was supporting your point but you\'re still arguing against it.