With all due respect what a crappy ROTW.
Yes, Mystic Guide is by far the fastest by a lot but after those efforts he took off 3 months. For rest or injury?? I suspect injury. And you\'d bet that horse?
Think Happy Saver will run a new top by a few points. If he does react a few points that\'s a pattern for a new top next out.
Absolutely agree with Happy Saver, I also think he runs a top here.
Max Player is the only horse that can add value to anything.
HS wins and MP in a box trying to beat MG. From a wagering standpoint this race gets a few bucks for some action.
Any value in the pick 3 4 5 with those 2?
Some of my thoughts:
I also agree that The pattern of Happy Saver is a positive one and a new top would not surprise me. Since his trainer is TAP and his 4 y/o campaign started as well as one could hope for, what\'s not to like? I assume TAP has some other trainees that he could have entered and chose this guy. The only oddity, for me, is the late start to his career and there are many potential inconsequential reasons for that. Add the top rider. My Top pick.
With regard to Mystic Guide, I am leery of trainer Stidman. wasn\'t he down and out a couple of years ago. Wasn\'t there a cloud of suspicion over him for PED\'s at one point? TG says ground loss should not be a concern and that\'s probably true but this one is habitually wide. One could consider his race two back as being the end of the development road and his next race c/b a collapse or a pause in a downward spiral. It seems his likely price doesn\'t support any doubts and I have some.
As for value, I have no argument with Max Player, however, I\'d look to the second Pletcher trainee (Morretti - who gets weight) first, then the mid-Atlantic iron horse Informative. Because I am one of the 1%r\'s who thinks he could duplicate the ridiculous 0 he ran last out?
Confident one of the TAP entrants will win.
Airing on Fox is curious who will the announcers be?
It’s on FS1 day at the races which airs I believe 3 days a week on FS2 fri-sun
With the forecasted rain, I expect the maintrack at Bel to be off tomorrow and that is a big consideration. Mystic Guide ran a huge race off a layoff and in the slop â€" conditions that mirror what he will get Saturday. I also think he is better suited to 10f than the rest of the field. As far as the layoff is concerned, it seems like trainers tend to give their charges a bit more time off coming back from Dubai, so I do not see three months off as a big deal in this case. He took six weeks off the World Cup race, worked three times in May and then has worked pretty much every week for the last five weeks. I respect Happy Saver but just call me “Chalky†as I think this is a much better spot for Mystic Guide. Mystic Guide will likely be 4/5ish, so I will look to single in multi-race wagers if I can find some decent odds horses in the other legs â€" always tough to figure if the turf stakes go in the expected wet conditions or it comes off. With the NYRABets promotion (bet at least $25 on the Suburban and if you win, get $20 extra), you can get 8/5 or so on a $25 win bet.
Tavasco
Moretti comes out of the mistimed Lone Rock 1 12/ Belmont Day.??
I say that because the on track time was 2:25 and change. Being on track, peering through my Warby Parkers, I alerted my fellow foursome of punters that Lone Rock just ran a faster than every Belmont winner not named Secretariat.
Didn\'t finish all that well (at least visually) but the adjusted time of 2;28.4 still has the last 1/4 run in 24.2 (surely race horse time).
Actually think Prat will send Moretti in this spot. Not much pace.
Good Luck today.
Hail to the true believers i.e. the winners - well done TG ROTW
Bad trip for Mystic Guide. The rail was not the place to be today and getting pinned in tight by Moretti on the far turn did him no favors.
Nice job for those that cashed - and TG for the ROW. \"Since he’s only four, it’s
also not impossible he has another forward move in him, which would
give him an outside shot at the whole thing... But the value in the race is Max
Player, who could get a piece of this at a price.\"
Nice job TG!!!!
I read it but thanks and I cashed the race better than if MG had won. I still think MG got a bad trip so his defeat is questionable. The rail path was a detriment.
On to manana. Are you going to be on the turf there tomorrow (today)?
Jerry, great job in finding that kind of value in what most thought was a useless betting race.
And nice to see this ROTW advertised on national tv.