Anyone playing Churchill tonight? The feature looks interesting.
The horse to beat is JULIET FOXTROT. Deserves to be favored, but not as much as the M/L suggests. I think her fair odds are around 5/2 in this spot.
The horse I\'m interested in is listed at 20/1 on the M/L: LASHARA. What do you guys think of the O-2 pattern she\'s on? I\'m positive on it and I\'m looking for her to at least pair her top. You guys think it\'s possible, or is the development from 3yo to 4yo too much for a return to her top? I think she\'s worth 6/1 in here if she can do it.
There should be a couple (maybe three) scratches in here and I\'ll tweak the odds if necessary when that happens.
DOMINGA and SISTER HANAN scratched in favor of a easier spot tomorrow, but I am a little surprised CRYSTAL BALL is still in. Guessing game how she\'ll handle the turf.
I\'ll keep the odds as is even after the CRYSTAL \"CURVE\" BALL.
IMHO - Juliet\'s Foxtrot sure does look the one to beat. Her success seems to revolve around running the competition off their feet early. Somewhat unusual for good turf horses who most often have a withering stretch run. Add top Jock & Trainer and I\'ll concentrate on trying to fill in the 2nd and 3rd spots.
The scratch of Dominga leaves only Lashara & She\'sonthewarpath to run with Juliet Foxtrot early. Of those two I forecast the latter to fade in the stretch.
Those with strong late running ability seem to be #1 Mintd and maybe Crystal Ball.
My simple solution is 2 / 1,5,9 /1,5,9
Complications - Tuned (Graham Motion) an improvement suspect. Vezpa (Pablo Lobo) this Uraguan import c/b anything? just having won @ CD is credible!
I\'m not sure what CDN is doing scheduling their card vs the nightly news. But I suppose as long as they think they know what they\'re doing that\'s probably all that counts to them.
So watched the new release \"Dream Horse\" Toni Collette & Damian Lewis. I watched it with my wife who is auditory and listens to movies rather than watching them. Since the film takes place in Wales with actors from the neighborhood even Ireland it took her a whi;e to understand the plot & relationship details.
Damian Lewis was terrific not at all the kind of role we\'ve grown accustomed to him playing. He does excitement as well as about any I\'ve seen on the silver screen. Then I fell asleep CDN and missed the entire CD card.
I woke up to discover the world had changed again. \"Crystall Ball\" scratched and simplified the race somewhat. Enough at least to pound the favorite\'s price down to 1/2, often a worrisome proposition when going all the way around, on the turf, traffic, and probably at least one horse or jockey without a clue what they are doing. e.g Pedroza & Flash n Dance who ended up beating only the scratches which I doubt surprised anyone. Maybe it was a another language issue.
Image for a moment, Jockey Gaffalione aboard the the favorite went say a neck or a head to fast to keep the clueless one in sight. In the end, just the little detail that may have caused so much disappointment and a little satisfaction.
All in all, I thought the top two finishers were the top two before the gate opened, but not in that order. If awake I would have played a 2/1 exacta and maybe the #1 to win @ the price. Who knows My ? horses Lashara, Tuned & Vezpa all flopped. In the stretch She\'sonthewarpath couldn\'t run with the top two late which I was confident about. That she got 3rd surprises me some but great for those who used her.
Well that was a buzz kill.
No response to my question about the O-2 pattern on the bulletin board, but I see the Thoro-Graph analysis suggested her as the play. We disagree on the price, but that will happen.
The question now becomes: How do you like LASHARA off the O-2-X?
Maybe the question is: How do you like LASHARA now that she\'s back on lasix? I don\'t know. I\'m grasping at straws at this point.
I guess we just turn the page and move forward.