Starting to like this colt too much.
Almost as much as I like Dynamic One in the Belmont, even though I have not
heard anything about TAP\'s plans for DO, understandable in that I am not
certain that DO has finished the Derby yet.
I need to digress here and say that Chad Brown is a factor in any stake in NA,
turf or dirt. My problem with his two runners in the Preakness is that they are
coming out of dull efforts in the Wood. The 1-2 finishers in the Wood were non factors in the Derby.
Back to Bourbon:
Since we are in TG territory let\'s discuss patterns. Let\'s take hypothetical
horse A: Here is his hypothetical TG sequence: 10-10-7-7-4-4. I would expect
\"A\" to advance in his next race, moving forward from the 4, and since the
previous forward moves were in 3 point increments, and if A has more
improvement in him, another 3 point move possible?
I looked for the sheet for 2020 Ky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil (can\'t find her
sheet in Archives) who I seem to recall had a similar pattern going into the
Oaks. The point is that MB has a pattern very close to Hypohorse A and
Shedaresthedevil, and the projected forward move would put MB in the thick of
things here.
Trip: Baffert\'s embarrassment of riches hurts him here because I think both of
his entrants will be 1-2 going down the backstretch, with lots of cat and
mouse/moose and squirrel going on between Smith and Johnny V. I would love to
see Irad sitting in third or fourth, not far off front runners.
Pedigree: MB\'s dam has produced four foals, all stakes winners, including La.
Derby winner Girvin. Going back further on the dam side one finds Monique Rene
(twice), a mare who was running in Louisiana when I was there in the early
1980s. Monique was very tough, winning 29 of 46 starts, likely gaining the
approval of Pan Zareta, a mare that was foaled in 1910 and had a lifetime
record of 151/76/31/21. PZ was champion female of 1914 (no JohnnyM I did not
see HER run) and is buried in the Fair Grounds infield.
Other: I am really skeptical of Medina\'s ability to come back in two weeks
without Lasix and to deliver another knockout punch, especially with the
expected pace pressure. I also have the suspicion that ME might have hind end
weaknesses (I am not talking about diaper rash) which may have been the cause
of the controversial overage. Unfortunately my evidence of ME\'s hind problems
ranges from no evidence to speculation to hearsay.
I think my value play here would be to play ME out of the exacta and maybe even
out of the tri...
MIDNIGHT BOURBON could make some noise in Preakness because his top, as it stands now, is competitive, but if he\'s forging the pattern should have produced a new top in the Derby.
Were you expecting this forward move from MIDNIGHT BOURBON in the Derby? Stick with it if that\'s you\'re read, but to me the payoff was in the Derby and the best he could do was pair the 3.
No comment about what he’s about to do, but in the seminar I said it was a great pattern but given the amount of development already, in the short term a pair was more likely than a new top. I also said I think he has a real future down the line.
I told Jeff he’s got Gun Runner written all over him, though I’m not predicting neg 5s for any horse. But if he stays in one pieceâ€" and his pattern is very soundâ€" he’s gonna be a top older horse. He, the Cox horses ad Hot Rod are the 3yos we will be talking about in the fall, along with any new shooters.
But this year the Preakness isn’t in the fall...
Ya done good Prist. You asked an altar boy a question and got an answer from a
Higher Authority. But the altar boy owes you some answers.
I did not have Bourbon on any of my Derby tix.
1) The record of Derby runners coming out of the Louisiana Derby has been less
than stellar. Grindstone in 1996 and Country House (put up) in 2019 have been
only winners in last 25 years.
2) Coming INTO the Derby MB did NOT have the \"Pair, Faster Pair, Even Faster
Pair\" pattern which he (almost) has now.
I think given the fact that MB was not allowed to run up near the lead as he is
accustomed to the Derby pair is nothing to be ashamed of.
Biggest handicapping factor: KARMA. Beta Bob\'s has got to turn bad, at least
for a couple of minutes, and maybe tomorrow is the day. Asmussen on the other
hand has some good karma working for him, being able to secure the services of
one of America\'s top riders for this race.
As it turns out, I finished the Makers Mark during last year\'s derby. My wife said our backyard mint wasn\'t ready this year (for reasons I don\'t understand) so rather than a Mint Julep I had Midnight Bourbon with Helium for Derby Day.
Helium opted to run with Medina Spirit, which thrilled me for a while, then MS just kept going and going while the gas left my ballon flat.
I will dabble with Midnight Bourbon on Sat even though you may have jinxed him (ha). But, logically I share most of your reasoning. I\'m not superstitious but some bad habits I just can\'t rid of.
Apparently, there is a Japanese bred colt @ Old Hilltop Sat. I can\'t resist. Even though I don\'t think this one is in the Sunday Silence family. The memory of being mistaken for Boz Skaggs when in Tokyo in 78\' by a beautiful young Japanese woman, just takes charge of all my reason at times like this.
Consequently, I will use the Samurai with the French? name and some Bourbon chaser.
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The memory of being mistaken for Boz Skaggs when
> in Tokyo in 78\' by a beautiful young Japanese
> woman, just takes charge of all my reason at times
> like this.
A watershed moment for me. FINALLY the reason for Tavasco\'s affinity for Japanese
racing and racehorses revealed.
Good luck tomorrow Tavasco.
There is still a long ways to go and this is not always the best indication of final odds, but currently (11:00 AM Pacific) in every Black Eyed Susan to Preakness daily double probable except one, Midnight Bourbon is the favorite. The only ones where he\'s not the favorite are the Baffert to Baffert ones. It will be interesting to see if that trend holds up and he ends up going off favored in the pool and on the racetrack.
Really difficult race to get conviction for.
Obviously you saw Midnight Bourbon\'s early trouble plus the four \"wides\". He was finishing well in the Derby, perhaps only Keepmeinmind was doing better late. A \"3\"Factors all that, but for the trouble, still can\'t help but think with the stalled momentum you could call it a 2 and a fraction.
The race begins with factoring which horses may keep the Bafferts honest. (My bad, that can\'t legitimately be done) Medina stole the Derby in more than one way. But Chad Brown has a horse with the speed to push it and if Midnight Bourbon is out clean he can be very close to it.
You never know with Baffert, but Medina looks to take the controlling position, being inside, with Concert Tour tracking just off and wide of him or just behind the top two. Like Midnight\'s post. To this eye, it looks rail, just behind the pace setters, perhaps with concert tour to his outside.