I thought the M/L was pretty accurate for the Black-eyed Susans. Not so much for the Preakness.
The Derby winner deserves to be favored, but I\'m nowhere near the M/L price. Same goes for CONCERT TOUR .... nowhere near the M/L odds. Both seem to be horses you want to bet against.
The two horses I\'m interested in are the two Chad Brown horses. Both have competitive tops and have plenty of time since those tops. I think they\'re both worth something around 7/1.
Good betting race.
My current thinking holds that Diodoro or Asmussen have a better shot at an upset, if you can call it an upset. Whatever happened to the former\'s runner in the two races preceding the Derby was pretty much offset by his relatively good run at Churchill....if Mandaloun could get back on track in the Derby after a clunker (by whatever means necessary) so did Keepmeinmind.
And if my original read of Midnight Bourbon was correct, this one is only going to get better with age and experience (by whatever means necessary).
If you have any doubts about Robber-tino, check out his winning percentage. It\'s about twice as good as Shug or, for that matter, Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons and other legendary trainers.
Diordino and Shug in same sentence? Yes you are confused.
According to DRF, RD has a 6% strike rate in graded stakes. According to my
memory, Shug once won six graded stakes on a single day at Belmont in the 1990s.
Records show Shug has won 240 graded stakes in his Hall of Fame career.
I agree with Midnight Bourbon though. Let Irad sit behind the two Bafferts as
Johnny V and Iron Mike cat and mouse it up front, maybe the import drags Rosario
to the front and creates more chaos.
M.S has the best TG # and Baffert two week turn around record speaks for itself.
C.T has a pair pattern coming in, may be sitting on go
M.B new jock with a pair pattern coming in as well
Those three may all be in the lead pack and definitely could be some pace..
Chads getting lots of talk don’t like the fact they both backed up last out..
A horse with a nice progressing pattern who may be sitting right behind the lead group, I’ll take a shot with Rombauer.
Been pointing to this spot since the bluegrass and finished a solid 3rd, behind the derby favorite and the Chad A team horse.
Now to really get on the conspiracy bandwagon.
Does the Coach horse get the treatment, take the heat of his buddy?
Due to today’s times, I am forced to think like this.
GL
Robber has somewhere around a 27% win percentage right now and has had meets where he strikes over 30%. The last guy who showed up with ridiculous numbers was Servis at Gulfstream a couple of years ago with 50%. That lit up the scoreboard and I thought it was just a matter of time. It was. And I was urging my pals to bet Navarro without handicapping for the same reason, for years.
Shug had a big day in the 1990\'s? Tell me when he won 30% over an extended period...at any track.
I get the point. If I have a graded stakes quality horse I will give him to RD and
not Shug. Makes perfect sense to me.
The Racing Hall of Fame on Union Avenue in Saratoga...Shug has already been
inducted. I am pretty certain the only way RD gets in is the same way I do. By
paying admission.
OK --
You Google Shug and you get:
Travers wins 4
Jockey Club Gold Cup wins 3
Breeders Cup wins 9
Kentucky Derby wins 1
Belmont wins 1
You Google Diodoro and you get:
Fined for medication violations
Fined for trio of positives
Begins serving suspension for medication positives
These posts relate to the topic how?
The topic was Diodoro vs Shug
Where is the pace in this race? A few years ago Oxbow and Gary Stevens stole the race. A few years after that Dale Romans horse almost pulled it off. I don’t see any pace other than Baffert’s two horses. This one doesn’t look that competitive on paper. Disappointing.
Well, we go in circles here - sometimes. The real point was to identify possible upsets in the Preakness. I\'m seeing possibilities with Midnight Bourbon - for obvious reasons and Keepmeinmind - because of his \'wakeup\' in the Derby. I could be wrong, but these two seem to be trending in a better direction than they were going into the Derby. That\'s all.
You don’t think C.T, M.S and M.B will create pace?
Word was Asmussen wanted him on the pace in the derby.
Have to think Irad is gonna put him right up there.
M.S has never been passed and I don’t not recall him passing anyone either.
C.T was rated in the Ark Derby got third think they are going.
G.L
I think MS and CT will make the pace but I don’t see two Baffert horses dueling each other into defeat. It’ll probably be the exacta.
I feel like if CT is gonna run a big one it’ll be here. As you pointed out his last wasn’t as over the top awful as everyone seems to think. He was BB’s “second string†which is usually pretty strong, ie Justify etc.(not saying CT is Justify though, just that BB’s other is normally legit). But he has a pretty solid pattern coming in, and there’s no reason to think BB won’t have MS ready to run, same as every other derby winner. Especially with all that’s going on, I just can’t see him running up the track really at all.
Rambauer figures to get a good trip as should Coach’s jump up special. I don’t think the BB’s duel each other into submission at all, so I see a milder pace scenario. With that in mind I definitely don’t want anyone that’s trying to close or come from off the pace. But I could see it unfolding kind of “turfy†in the stretch.
I will say I planned on throwing out the two Chad’s completely. But I can’t help but remember a few years back when I was loud and proud on here about doing the same thing with Cloud Computing, despite TGJB giving him as the most likely winner. Pretty sure I was the only one ripping up tickets while everyone else soaked up that 9-1 or whatever. I’m not gonna lie, I’m a bit nervous, thinking I’m making the same mistake again?
But hey, I love pain, and obviously a slow learner, hell I bet TAP in the derby AGAIN, like it was mystifying to watch DO fight the jock and decide he wasn’t interested and KA break great, choke back and come up completely and totally empty with a rail trip. Shocking stuff I know, who coulda foresaw TAP’s not fire the first Sunday in May?? I mean really?
I’m conflicted but as of tonight I’ll use CT & Rambauer and mix in the other derby starters in supers based on post time odds.
Cloud Computing had a much more competitive sheet going into the Preakness that year.
The two that I think could make some noise at big prices are Lukas’ RAM and Diodoro’s KEEPMEINMIND.
RAM reminds me a little bit of another Lukas TC horse by the name of Charismatic although Charismatic had a competitive top going into that year’s derby. RAM would have to make another big move forward. I believe Lukas also had OXBOW in the Preakness.
KEEPMEINMIND had good two year old figures and the small new top in the derby could mean this horse is ready to move forward again. The only problem is the lack of pace.