I’ll preface with saying I did not hit.
I don’t know if others on here use race shapes, but I can’t think of a better example to show their importance than a race like yesterday. No other product had Medina that clear at the first quarter. We all know that on big days, tracks will play fast. Medina cleared the field and took them gate to wire. Should have kept it simple, stupid.
Hats off to a fun weekend.
I agree that the Race Shapes are a good tool, but think the Derby (this Derby perhaps especially) is a bad example.
Consider that Medina Spirit in his last race (SA Derby) did not make the lead, and that the horse that outsprinted him for the lead in the SA Derby was in this race.
The Race Shape takes into account that Rock Your World ran two turf races before the SA Derby, each with 24 1/5 first quarters, and therefore projects Medina Spirit to be 3-4 lengths faster to the first call than Rock Your World, when we know that isn\'t true - or at least, it wasn\'t true the only time they\'ve run a comparable race.
Good Point well made. I have a similar issue with Race 9 at Belmont Turf Sprint. Tomorrow. Horse in Question Hey Its Tati. Predicted race shape time 24.47sec (4th best). However the horse has run on turf only twice. 22.63 Carmouche on 5.5f and Saratoga and 25.28 6f Varglas on Aqua. Normal problem not enough data to predict outcome.... (and once you have enough data the patterns already established so everyone knows anyhow). Then you add Blinkers Off and its a Barrera 1st off switch. So I will have to guess.