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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: sekrah on May 01, 2021, 03:14:38 PM

Title: Ky Derby
Post by: sekrah on May 01, 2021, 03:14:38 PM
A: 12, 17
B: 1, 8, 10, 14, 15
C: 6, 9, 11. 19

Good luck everyone.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: jerry on May 01, 2021, 03:53:04 PM
The 12 is a bit unorthodox
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: sekrah on May 01, 2021, 04:11:55 PM
Anyone come up with the 7?  Yikes.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: Boscar Obarra on May 01, 2021, 04:17:58 PM
Why so shocked, all good races and development , one X off what looks like a top on the cheap #s

and COX


BAFFERT /COX exacta


who cudda thunk it .  Hey , I know theres a Wrong Chad club, is there a wrong Cox club too ?
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: sekrah on May 01, 2021, 04:19:32 PM
I shouldn\'t be shocked because it is Cox, but I still couldn\'t get past the X or the sire. That\'s much more \"impressive\" than what Baffert did.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: Bet Twice on May 01, 2021, 04:21:04 PM
I didn’t use the 7, but was discussed amongst my group.  If you could overlook his last he was in it.  I read his last as not wanting the distance.  Not impossible IMO.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: statuette on May 01, 2021, 04:23:15 PM
Richiebee picked him
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: Tavasco on May 01, 2021, 04:30:52 PM
Richie didn\'t believe the \"Fake News\" that #7 bled in La. Derby.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: TGJB on May 01, 2021, 04:40:02 PM
On the contrary. At least for me.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: prist on May 01, 2021, 04:51:26 PM
Curious to see what Jerry\'s opinion was on the race. The second and third fastest horses in race were both coming off what I thought were nice patterns. I was looking for a pair-up, or new top from both of them. Bad read, or did others see it the same way?
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: TGJB on May 01, 2021, 04:54:50 PM
The seminar will be up for red boarding shortly.

I had a friend who had access to 10c supers off shore, I made a little on the race. Made a big prop bet on Known Agenda vs Rock, I cashed but I ain’t bragging.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: richiebee on May 01, 2021, 05:08:36 PM
Cox again race 13 CD at 13/1. No attempt to save ground, Geroux goes around field
on turn like a freight train going by a hobo...,.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: Roman on May 01, 2021, 05:39:06 PM
I liked Bafferts horse a ton. Didn’t see a replay , but definitely thought MS would clear and be on the lead.  Horse never gets past in his races so far. Singled whitemore in the pick 3 and four, and a back up ticket on the 10 thru 12 sequence the dead heater split the pool, only ticket cashed on the day. Didn’t put a cent a the nose of MS. Woulda coulda shoulda as my old friend Dave Feldman used tell me when I was a kid. Not really a win bettor, I mostly play vertically and horizontally .
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: jerry on May 01, 2021, 06:26:05 PM
The winner wasn’t as much of a surprise as the dull effort turned in by Known Agenda. He was never involved in the race after reportedly working well. Was it the post?
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: MonmouthGuy on May 01, 2021, 06:42:56 PM
I thought the seminar was greatâ€" led me to the tri in the oaks and the exacta in the Derby.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: prist on May 01, 2021, 08:42:25 PM
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
> I thought the seminar was great

I just watched it (Derby) and I agree.

It also illustrates how good Jerry is at ticket construction with an opinion like that.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: TGJB on May 01, 2021, 10:17:17 PM
Could only be done if you could find smaller denomination supers.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: boardedup on May 02, 2021, 12:04:55 AM
Looked like he broke well enough and then Irad “choked” him back and it was pretty much a done deal after that, never really got into the race.  Shocking I know, who woulda suspected that TAP’s stable wouldn’t fire in the derby???  At least his Filly did what was expected.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: Chas04 on May 02, 2021, 04:14:43 AM
Teflon Bob strikes again. This time with a horse bought for like a 1,000 bucks early on. He’s truly a piece of work. His two other horses Concert Tour & Life is Good would have won the Derby by 10 lengths. Insanity this guy. He’s literally destroyed playing the Derby.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: johnnym on May 02, 2021, 05:17:13 AM
I was done at the break. Maybe the worse feeling as a gambler.
I Keyed  the 15
Wheeled the 14-17 underneath.

Regarding the race itself when RYW did not break it was over.

Moving forward, is one a idiot not to just key Baffert and sit back and watch?
As was mentioned that was his third string horse and look what he does.

Now M.S goes to the Preakness does Concert Tour run?

On a side note I did set a new personal record on the amount of $ I lost on a race card. Not the best records to break.

Really enjoyed the board action over the past few days

GL
John
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: confused on May 02, 2021, 05:46:21 AM
Perfect view of Irad\'s ride....if the horse had any chance he blew it in the first sixteenth....my guess is that the break was so clean for him that he decided he didn\'t have to gun the horse....then the sky fell in on him.  Compare this to JV\'s strategy on the winner.  Or should we say BB\'s strategy?  The other BB, Belichick,
would be proud: play the strength you have.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: billk5300s on May 02, 2021, 05:47:55 AM
I feel your pain. Once Irad blew the break I knew I had no chance.  I used him with MS and EQ in 90% of my tickets.  The seminar was spot on and JB knew that EQ would be caught wide which he was.  Although MS went fast nobody really challenged him for the lead and everyone in front hung around.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: johnnym on May 02, 2021, 05:59:40 AM
One more thought, the new gate made a difference Irad had clean sailing but decided to drop back.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: jbelfior on May 02, 2021, 06:15:03 AM
Or maybe Known Agenda ran one of his bad ones.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Ky Derby
Post by: mistermoose on May 02, 2021, 06:45:55 AM
First off a big thanks to TGJB for another informative seminar. Totally tossing
RYW was big, and I actually moved medina up to an A. I loved Malathat going in,
she looks like a colt in the flesh.Question for MATHCAPPER if he is lurking?
Is there a way of calculating the late pick 5, if the 5 wins instead of the dead
heat? Thanks Moose