Mattress Mac McInVale has publically stated he will wager from $2 - $4 million on Essential Quality to win the Kentucky Derby Sat. The bet is in connection with a promise to make mattress purchases free if EQ wins the Derby. Such is the reality of a promoter.
So if Mac is hedging his mattress promotion it stands to reason he will also hedge the $2+M win bet, albeit not publically. Looking to lose as little of it as possible. What would be the preferred hedge strategy of his accountants?
Secondly, given that he is planning to place the win bet on-site @ CD and reportedly won\'t bet early and cause a 1/9 flash what effect is this likely to have on the AI syndicates?
Where and what opportunities, if any, are potentialities? ...other than a free mattress.
Oh never mind, keeping it simple I wasn\'t going to bet EQ to win anyway.
These are the types of questions I LOVE to ponder - on any week but Derby Week or Breeder\'s Cup Week, but it does present itself with some interesting scenarios.
How is Mac putting the bet in? Is he doing it in $500k increments spread out, or is it going to be one bet?
The reason I asked is EQ is currently 3/5 with $609k in the win pool on him of $1.248 million. This suggests that someone put a $400-500,000 bet on him already.
He was actually 5/1 earlier along with Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World - looks like a half million came in on one chunk.
Not sure how he is placing those bets - he did say he was cognizant of not driving the price down late so maybe it was him.
Gotta love saying \"500k increments\".
TGJB Wrote:
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> Gotta love saying \"500k increments\".
That\'s also how he buys Runhappy sponsorships.
I can almost guarantee he\'s doing it wrong.
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> I can almost guarantee he\'s doing it wrong.
lmao Boscar...yeah, not much sense getting into \"The Mattresses\" foray into the Sport.
We\'ve come here to bury Ceasar, not praise him. One day they\'ll figure it out, but No, No, No...Not Today!
Only referring to his giant win bet on the horse . No opinion on the other stuff .
Per the Horse Racing Nation website, someone bet $500k for him at Churchill today. Mac has wired $4 mill to Churchill, so more to come tomorrow.
Mac’s promotion is for the derby favorite to win. With his 500k on Essential Quality, he made EQ the favorite, if you take out his bet, Rock your World would be early favorite on the tote by almost 100k. If he was betting the favorite, should he not wait till the public sets the odds to find out who the favorite will be? In this case he is making EQ the favorite. If RYW would / have been the favorite and with Mac’s money, RYW might be a super huge live overlay.
Let me restate, the entire field will be overlaid
That seems doubtful to me.
I hadn\'t paid much attention to this until the last few days.
His site does say \'the favorite\' without naming a horse. Some reports I read name Essential Quality , as if favoritism was assured.
Interesting.
The bet itself seems to be the hedge against the 3,000 free mattress offer. To break even he must expect to sell a lot of Posturpedics.
I read an interview with him and he said he had some “experts†helping him with the betting aspect. In addition to the win betting, he also mentioned both horizontal and vertical bets. He was conscious of impacting the pools, so was taking that into account as to how he was going to be sending it in.
Yeah, I see where he intends to spread it around a bit. The guy is no dummy .
Should create some fireworks on the tote .
Any idea what the usual win pool is on the derby ?
If he only bets 2 million to win , I dont\' expect you\'ll be getting all that big a pop on the other runners . Maybe a 5-10% bonus. Not bad , but won\'t make anyone rich.
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
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> Only referring to his giant win bet on the horse .
> No opinion on the other stuff .
Theres a lot of money in mattresses.
Bought a King a couple years back. When your woman has a clingy cat, a King is a necessity. Hybrid mattress of sorts...kinda like a horse bred for distance top and bred for speed bottom. 1,000 springs and Foam support. As well as, Memory Foam outter layer to caress and cuddle the cat. Heat wicking final layer. Its a one-way mattress, kinda like a horse that has to have the lead. You can\'t turn the mattress over because the layers are dedicated. You can spin the mattress headboard to baseboard, but thats all.
The dang thing is basically cloth, pillow foam and chambered springs. It probably cost about 200 dollars to make. Not gonna say what the cost was, but there were far more expensive mattresses out there made of the same common materials.
Yeah, theres a lot of money in mattresses. So much so one can invest imprudently in Horses. One can bet millions on baseball, football and NCAA basketball without concern the well is gonna run dry. The mattresses keep pumping and the Economic Wagering Wheel keeps turning.
Old Eddie Mush Mac, did have one nice horse, but commonly, the only things that paid for themselves over the years were the Mattresses.
Eddie Mush Mac is getting involved in the pools as an Addict\'s Gimmick. What would be Poetic Justice would be for Eddie Mush to plunge on Essential Quality and another horse go off as favorite and crush his Stop Loss scheme.
I have a wager. Mattress Mac Mush files for bankruptcy within 3!
He wired 4 million to CD. He bet 500K to win on EQ on Friday
I seem to recall that back in the early 1980’s the owners of Perrault (DQ’s out of a SA Handicap win against John Henry) used to bet large amounts to win on his horses early, so the first tick showed extremely low odds. He reasoned that this drove the value players to longer odds horses and in theory raised the odds on his bet. Seems to be working so far here are some of the others are getting more money than Essential Quality right now (or it could be people are just waiting to see what happens for him).
Per Mac himself, he already bet 1.7 million on EQ, with another 500k coming in.
Roman Wrote:
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> Per Mac himself, he already bet 1.7 million on EQ,
> with another 500k coming in.
How is this horse still 5/2 after all this? Good price if you ask me.
There\'s over $30 million in the win pool, he has less than 6% of it.
Right, but shouldn\'t this horse have odds lower than 3-1?