Out!
Pace?
I believe that puts a Dallas bomber in, who also has a promising pattern.
Personally I have never liked so many bombers in a derby before like this one.
GL
(https://i.imgur.com/qhTBWIg.png)
Thanks, Steve. You\'d be surprised at how hard it is to find a clean, up to date list.
Very interesting Derby. Best things about it are the large number of throw-outs, some of whom will take money, and the relatively small number who look like they can win.
Very few total throw-outs in the Oaks.
Writing away...
Anyone have a list with riders for the Oaks?
And no lasix this year, the dynamic of handiguessing continues!
From the Courier review Journal the other day… they noted the “possible†jockeys, but have seen the same lineup other places.
Search Results (Irad Ortiz Jr., Chad Brown)
Travel Column (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox)
Crazy Beautiful (Jose Ortiz, Kenny McPeek)
Pauline’s Pearl (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen)
Malathaat (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher)
Clairiere (Tyler Gaffalione, Steve Asmussen)
Will’s Secret (Jon Court, Dallas Stewart)
Millefeuille (Joel Rosario, Bill Mott)
Moraz (Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy)
Ava’s Grace (David Cohen, Robertino Diodoro)
Pass the Champagne (Javier Castellano, George Weaver)
Maracuja (Kendrick Carmouche, Rob Atras)
Competitive Speed (TBA, Javier Gonzalez)
Coach (Luis Saez, Brad Cox).
Here is a list for the Derby if you want to cut and paste into a document…
Essential Quality (Luis Saez, Brad Cox);
Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat, Doug O\'Neill);
Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen);
Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke, Wesley Ward);
Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr., Todd Pletcher);
Rock Your World (Joel Rosario, John Sadler);
Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche, Todd Pletcher);
Medina Spirit (John Velazquez, Bob Baffert);
Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith, Steve Asmussen);
Mandaloun (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox);
Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano, Chad Brown);
Helium (Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse);
Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione, Mark Casse);
Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher);
Sainthood (CoreyLanerie, Todd Pletcher);
Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano, Vicki Oliver);
O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza, Greg Foley);
King Fury (Brian Hernandez Jr., Kenny McPeek);
Keepmeinmind (David Cohen, Robertino Diodoro);
Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli, Danny Velasquez)
Clean and up to date, only lacking a set of projected odds from the board\'s
Jesuit-trained oddsmaker.
I\'ve dabbled in NONSCIENCE, now I will explore HISTORY (for purposes of both,
Maximum Security was 2019 Derby winner). Since 2013 (current point system), the
Derby winner was in the Top 5 point leaders five of seven years. Both Always
Dreaming and Maximum Security were seventh on points list.
In the last seven years, the Kentucky Derby was won by Florida Derby
winner four times, Santa Anita Derby winner twice and the
Arkansas Derby winner once.
Given recent HISTORY, consider the following questions: (1) Is picking Derby
WINNER really that much of a puzzle? (2) Will there ever be a Giacomo/Mine That
Bird type Derby upset under the current points system? (3) How screwed am I
(based off above) in that I think Known Agenda bounces right out of the
trifecta?
[Maybe the points system could be tweaked so that winners of non pointed races
could be preferred over horses who have not won as a 3YO? Hypothetical: A Cal
bred or NY bred 3YO gets on a roll, winning a couple of state bred stakes
in nice fashion....would rather see a horse like this have an opportunity to go
to Derby than a horse who accumulated prep points but has not won as a 3YO.
Hypothetical also works subbing \"filly\" for \"state bred\".]
Why will KA bounce?
I\'ve put a little thinking into a projected odds attempt. I have some reservations about what will happen and waiting as long as possible although not feeling super confident as in some years. I may give it a shot although not as in tune with the game this year as in the past. And I may say the heck with it as others are all jumping on this attempt on twitter now with plenty of solid guesses out there.
Last year\'s favorite, Tiz the Law, went off at .70-1 in a 15 horse field. You have to go back to 1976 to find a shorter beaten favorite than that, Foolish Pleasure at .40-1. Only a 15 horse field last year but 3 of the top 4 favorites hit the super and it paid $792.58 for 10 cents. Normally the Derby, as this year, has $1 supers. But last year, for obvious reasons, they had dimes. The super paid $15,851.60 for a $2 increment (792.58 for a dime).
If looking to play supers, a top 3 choice has hit the super every single year since and including 2000. The favorite has hit the super the last 9 years. The average $2 super in that time (last 9 years) has paid $53,416.69 and the median was $39,236.40 (for $2 increments). I know these small samples make these meaningless to a true statistics person. But I pass it along if interested. The $1 minimum for a super, with field of more than 14, and often times 19 or 20 is truly a unique opportunity in the wagering year. My approach despite the favorite\'s success lately is to toss EQ (likely favorite although I\'m still not completely sold on that) and play a 7 horse box with the ones that I prefer for $1 at a cost of $840. I see many easy eliminations, I dislike the favorite at the moment (and don\'t see that changing), and I see it as a good bet no matter the result as I have strong opinions on the ones I think will be there and a strong opinion against EQ. The TG read will be interesting.
A few notes in the Derby link below on the heaviest beaten favorites of all time if interested although it has not been updated to include Tiz the Law.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/5-fast-facts-kentucky-derby-shortest-priced-beaten-favorites
Confused
The proper question would be: Why is it my opinion that KA
will bounce?
If JB could open a wagering pool restricted to people who purchased data for
that day, there would be a surprising amount of value. Races are sometimes won
by runners who are not among the fastest, and we all look at data differently.
What was the question?
Bouncing KA:
This is TG board so lets look at TG data. I have already let half the cat out
of the bag regarding KA\'s Thoro-pattern. I will spill it entirely, hoping not
to lose lifetime free admission to TG Spa seminars or lifetime waived entry
fees to the TG (Senior?) Open.
In a small sample (44), one quarter of the runners showing the same pattern as
KA have produced a top in their next race. How large a top? Big enough to win?
The other Thoro-pattern possibilities show that the chances of a pair (not good
enough to win, my opinion) or worse=75%.
There is a TG notation next to his TG # for Florida Derby that I would like to
investigate. I was fast asleep while the race was being run and have not seen a
replay, maybe tonight or tomorrow
Non-Thorographically, the trainer of KA has a Derby record of 2 for 43. I do
not want to hold a lot of TAP\'s early Derby misfires against him, but it is
probably accurate to say that TAP has saddled more Derby bounces than any
trainer in history.
One more point is that my projected Belmont Stakes winner, Dynamic One, also
trained by TAP, is almost as fast as KA on the TGs and will be a much larger
price.
This will be KA\'s second race off Lasix. The only log I will throw on that fire
is to say (opinion) there is nowhere near enough data for me or anyone else to
determine whether regression (if any) will come first or second race OFF?
If you could not tell from NONSCIENCE, I think the two GP preps beat a horse
up. Orb and Always Dreaming were Derby winners who never won again; Max
Security\'s hooves were not touching the ground. Nyquist won both Florida and
Kentucky Derbies, but the Florida Derby was his only prep race at GP.
AJKreider expressed it differently, but I agree: If I go four deep in the Derby
on my horizontal, KA not one of the four. If I go as deep as six, he is
probably one of the six.
Confession Confusion: The whole GP multiple prep/NONSCIENCE thing popped in my
head because of Greatest Honour, who must have had enough Derby qualifying
points after winning the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull that he did not need
to run in Florida Derby in order to be eligible to run in Kentucky Derby.
Bull/Fountain/Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby/No Lasix rather ambitious, would
love to have known Shug\'s take on this...
Medina Spirit is flying low , under the radar. Last race looked clearly like a prep, RYW loose on the lead , and who is this Baffert guy? Only entrant this year, previous loss was to Life is Good , who would probably been favorite for the roses, and with Caddo river out, it will probably be a merry go round with Medina Spirit and Highly Motivated running 1-2, will keep it simple stupid this year and build all tickets around these 2.
richiebee,
“In the last seven years, the Kentucky Derby was won by Florida Derby winner four times, Santa Anita Derby winner twice and the Arkansas Derby winner once.â€
Perhaps another way to say this could be:
“Four of the last seven Kentucky Derbies were won by California based horses that were undefeated in their 3YO season and the other three were won by Florida based horses that were also undefeated in their 3YO season.
Could it be as simple as that in the points era? I doubt it, but certainly narrows the field down quite a bit â€" Rock Your World is the only one that fits.
I was waiting until next week to get the TG numbers, so I do not know what the TG notation that you want to investigate is yet, but I suspect you would likely want to watch the head on of the Florida Derby. Here is a link I found to it â€" it might be worth the time to watch the stretch run.
2021 Florida Derby Head On (https://vimeo.com/541371273)
Is this assuming Rosario chokes his horse and doesn’t get loose with Rock Your World? I have a hard time envisioning a race where Rosario doesn’t find himself on the lead.
Say hello to my little friend
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4p-GsgzkvwE
Thanks for this. OK, I saw a young horse running away from the whip and lugging in once Irad stopped whipping. So?
Looks like a young Mike strutting into the ring.
The hardest thing for me to read about KA\'s sheet is the effect of the equipment change.
If the blinkers moved him up, that\'s not really development. The ability might well have been there as a 2 year-old, and he\'s just now running to his potential. What would have his 2 year-old top have been, had he run that race with blinkers?
That\'s pretty much unknowable, but I can\'t make the assessment of his developing too much too fast (or not) without that info.
His workouts have been pretty meh, but EQ\'s have been even worse, so who knows.
The reason TAP\'s early lack of success in the Derby never bothered me was my feeling that he believed that he had a clientele that wanted results in important races. So he cranked the young horses far too much and got the success he wanted. But this meant that the young horses peaked early, not only in Derby preps. He was a solid \'bet against\' in Louisville for years.
I think he moderated this approach in recent years and maybe even found some owner/investors who approached the business differently, wanting longer term results. If this is the case, KA maybe shouldn\'t be looked at through the same historical prism you might used for TAP Derby candidates in the past.
The blinkers moved this horse up a lot. Enough to win? I don\'t know, but his late run in Florida was the strongest (from my point of view) of any of these. He may have shied from the whipping he got, but he was motoring. Ignore him at your peril.
The other difficulty for me is that KA\'s \"development\" also coincides with his
arrival at GP, where Todd is Godd...what if KA does not like CD as much as he
did GP??
Thanks Molesap for the Florida Derby replay. I watched Florida and Santa Anita
Derbies for first time last night. First impressions:
1) Known Agenda\'s Florida Derby: When I watch a race like this that I didn\'t
bet on, I often wonder to myself \"Why don\'t horses that I bet on ever
get a trip like that??\" Saved ground with cover, tipped out in the lane.
Another perfect trip at CD? I take his weaving a bit through the stretch to be
boredom more than anything. Can not comment on the gallop out until I see
gallop out for all career races.
2) Santa Anita Derby: Did not get the impression that RTW is a need to lead
type, can see him stalking. Got the knowledge I was looking for in post race
commentary. To paraphrase Sadler, RTW was entered in turf races \"to avoid
Baffert monsters\" he would have faced on dirt (I thought the reason might be
that dirt races were not filling). For those still embracing the \"jinx of
Apollo\" note that RTW did not start as a 2YO but made his first start on
January 1. Will not be splitting hairs and will use despite light foundation.
Soupy might be fast enough and head strong enough to complicate things up front for RYW? Unless he doesn’t want/need the lead and prefers to stalk the pace. MS should be up there as well, who’s going to be closer to the pace than in their previous races?
Am I the only one who thinks RTW won’t lead....
I would think Baffert and Johnny V probably send Medina for the lead and hope for the best, no?
Just sayin...
Agree. JV should be upfront IMO. RYW will rate and SS will be there for a bit as well. But if past derbies / CD play true to form, Medina will be tough. Even if the sheets don’t fit. I’m scratching my head with this one. This is one of the more perplexing derbies in recent memory. You have EQ beat HM by a head who got dusted by Weyburn (a Belmont contender IMO) last out. So I’m at witts end trying to figure this particular race out.
JV\'s preferred placement, when he thinks he has a real contender, is on the shoulder of the leader, not going for the lead. Medina Spirit belongs with this group. I think you\'ll see him placed carefully near the front, not in the front.
Not what I can tell from the last work.
I think they want MS to have a target or two.
GoodLuck,
Joe B
bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You have EQ beat HM by a head who got dusted by
> Weyburn (a Belmont contender IMO) last out.
It\'s easy to get dusted when you have a bad trip, though I\'m not so sure that less than two lengths = dusted. HM had a bad trip in the Gotham.
(I\'m still scratching my head over the jock\'s \"no big deal\" comments afterwards.)
“HM had a bad trip in the Gothamâ€
H.M has a tendency to break slow.
Blue:
This is no typical Baffert. Medina Spirit sold at auction as a yearling for $1,000
and resold as a 2YO for $35,000 (TG page does not reflect \"pinhook\"??).
Back to the archives. Going back to 1997 and going through 2019, Baffert has
saddled 45 Derby starters. He has had five Derby winners. As best as I can
reconstruct Silver Charm (52 - 23), War Emblem (1- minus
02) and American Pharaoh (minus 1- minus 32) all moved
forward off their final prep to win. For Real Quiet and Justify a pair was
sufficient.
One of the biggest forward moves by any Baffert trainee in the Derby has been
by Pioneer ofthe Nile, second to Mine That Bird (32 -
03).
Including the above mentioned runners, as best as I can reconstruct, from 45
Baffert Derby starters between 1997-2019, six have moved forward in the Derby
from their final prep, seven have paired their final prep, the others have
offed or xed.
So my conclusion/opinion would be that in order for Medina Spirit to be
competitive, he would have to move forward in the Derby as much as any Baffert
runner has ever moved forward??
Mattress Mac making a 2, 3, or 4 million dollar bet on EQ to cover his latest promotion potentially. . . .projecting odds almost impossible if he does shove in on this.
https://dknation.draftkings.com/2021/4/26/22403828/mattress-mack-kentucky-derby-bet-wager-essential-quality-pick-furniture-promotion-history
Full Disclosure re: Baffert Derby Forward Moves:
Liasion (2012) posted a TG9 in SA Derby, a TG3 in Derby, so he moved forward six
TG points. He finished sixth in both races.
Smart of him to let people know his bet is coming. It encourages others to adjust around him and is likely to improve the odds he will get.
I love that cat, I bet half the real estate in the greater Houston area has his furniture inside in some capacity!
As to MS. BB’s lukewarm at best endorsement of his entrant aside, He hasn’t gone forward in his 3 year old races and I’m not sure if he’s fast enough to get the lead? Forwardly placed for sure, but I don’t think he out runs Soupy or RYW? There’s always a few that contest the pace, or better said, dead send and end up on the front when they haven’t shown that kind of speed/style in their recent preps. Like an Uncle Sigh, or the Palace Malice blinker experience. I think two of the TAP’s could be more forwardly placed along with Like the King. Seven straight winners from the front end is the trend, and I’m not trying to fade it, but it’s tough this year?
FANTASTIC call!
Thanks....again!