Essential Quality obviously goes as your Derby fav. I think he gets beat for reasons I won\'t post now.
I expect Rock Your World to take a LOT of money and deservedly so.
Super Stock with a rail ride in Ark Derby that may not get a big TG number but one I will use pending post position draw.
Those are the two that interest me the most for the win spot rn
Hoping Caddo River goes to help spice up the pace, which is something recent runnings have sorely missed. Very interested to see numbers for Hot Rod Charlie, Highly Motivated, Known Agenda and even Super Stock now. Think all will benefit from a faster than par pace.
Think Super Stock gets a good fig. Would expect something only a couple of points worse than what By My Standards will get.
From what I gather, Beyer and Timeform have it slower than By My Standards by a touch and way slower than Following Sea fwiw (Following Sea was a Baffert Runhappy sired horse for his new fav client Spendthrift in a MSW 6f race run 5 hours earlier).
That latter race was a sprint that, time wise, stacks up well against the CZ Rocket race. Not really comparable to the two turn races.
TG will likely have a bigger gap between BMS and the Arky winner, because of weight and trip, but the former is a quality older stakes horse.
Standards was wide, Asmussens 3yo saved ground. Trips about 3 points different.
Second/third 3yos figure to be 4ish, so winner should be 3ish.
Is anyone willing to give CT another shot? Had a nice progressing pattern coming in, if he won he’d likely been second choice, now he’ll be left for dead. Neither Baffert’s ran their A race today. I don’t know, I’m not completely jumping ship yet, even though you could make the argument that he’s yet to run “fast†and gave up the ghost in deep stretch.
As of today I’m not interested in the “champ†at all. Charlie and TAP’s A team impressed. BB’s haven’t for the most part but feel like they’ll be their “rebraking†selves once they get to KY.
I would be very surprised if Concert Tour was in the gate on May 1.
Ditto Caddo River.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I can’t see a Derby without a Baffert entry.
I had Caddo River in the race thought he ran hard and came back on C.T.
Could he have a move forward in him?
My top two are the same as Fairmont1
With Known Agenda nipping on there heals.
Looking for the underneath bombers.
GL and nice to see some action on the board.
Johnnym what do you make of Midnight Bourbon chances?
Did I miss something? Medina Spirit will be there, no? But he can\'t beat any of the contenders. Of BB\'s contenders only Life is Good ran fast....the others not so fast.
Medina Spirit?
Thinking he\'s running, no?
Good Luck,
Joe B
Forgot about him
But he seems to run his best race on the lead and not stalking.
First thought,I would like to see better late pace figures.
He seems more of a forward placed horse.
But pace is not really discussed in these parts.
Side note: I wonder how much these horses have been babied with the lasix issue.
Now they are being tightened going further with more weight.
GL
\"GL and nice to see some action on the board.\"
Even the most hardened of horse players that see where drugs have taken the game, can still get some Derby fever! Especially when BB doesn\'t have them over a barrel. Although last year\'s \"training job\" with getting a horse that couldn\'t run the Haskell distance to stretch out to the Derby distance and win always makes one nervous of the rabbits he can pull out of a hat. Generally, everyone can see whatever he does works best when sent hard to the lead just like Arrogate at the Travers several years back. MS and CT weren\'t able to or didn\'t do that in their last preps.
All that being said, I don\'t think Baffert can win with MS or CT (if he even runs CT which I doubt) and thus it makes it a more attractive betting race for me if I have any other strong opinions besides that one.
Not me, if he even runs.
Can we assume that Essential Quality\'s Blue Grass was slow because it was a normal regression from his best races or did it signal something else? As I see things now, Known Agenda, Midnight Bourbon, and O Besos all have a right to move forward from races that were slower, but were improvements to their previous runs. If so, they will be formidable challengers unless EQ gets all the way back to his best.
No?
BRIS (102 prior top 101 in BC) DRF (97 up from 96 in the SW & 95 in the BC) and Rags (6.25 from paired 7.75s)) all gave Essential Quality his fastest figure in the Bluegrass. Timeform US had EQ pairing his Southwest & Bluegrass (118) Since EQ\'s TG was -.5 in the Southwest, unless Jerry saw the race different than the others, I\'d expect a forward move further into the negatives figures, at least a -1.
Since EQ has been winning all his stakes races all the figures shown have been released for free by the original source: BRIS in their free Derby PPs, DRF in their Kentucky Derby watches, Rags from their Twitter page and TG from the Redboard Room,and TimeformUS from their Journey to the 2021 Triple Crown therefore no unreleased proprietary data was used in this post.
Well Done! Concert Tour is out of the Derby: https://www.drf.com/news/concert-tour-miss-kentucky-derby-targets-preakness
I think that he will get a \"0\". Moving him back a little from the negative 1/2 he got in the Southwest.
Thanks for this, particularly those other than BRIS. However, BRIS makes no ground loss adjustment and EQ\'s Southwest and BC Juvenile both included significant ground loss. To me, at least, that points to those being much faster races for him. Of course, there was no ground loss for EQ in the Blue Grass and he was all out to win. A regression to me.
As King Fury draws closer to entry, I\'ll be using him also possibly if he draws in.
Well according to DRF you are getting pretty close:
1-Essential Quality
2-Hot Rod Charlie
3-Super Stock
4-Like the King
5-Known Agenda
6-Rock Your World
7-Bourbonic
8-Medina Spirit
9-Midnight Bourbon
10-Mandaloun
11-Caddo River
12-Highly Motivated
13-Helium
14-Soup and Sandwich
15-Dynamic One
16-Sainthood
17-Hidden Stash
18-Dream Shake
19-O Besos
20-Get Her Number
21-King Fury
22-Keepmeinmind
Decision on Dream Shake (Pay Day Mile?) puts Fury in or keeps him out it appears.
On another West Coast decision note, Rock Your World is going to be heavily, heavily bet with the move of Rosario taking the mount now. Even possible he is just a tick below EQ for Favoritism? Dare I say it is possible he could go favored with the 100 Beyer sticking out on the page and also an undefeated record including turf starts bringing to mind Barbaro and Big Brown as undefeated, favored, Derby winners with turf beginnings?
Interesting race this year.
His stride reminds me of Barbaro.
Looked at the derby special today,interesting indeed.
Two weeks in early spring to keep twenty 3Y0 healthy? There may be more defections, but perhaps not purposeful. How many times has someone stubbed their toe going into this race? Thousand Words (although that would be of no help to the AE’s at that point), King Guillermo, Finnick the Fierce, Art Collector, Omaha Beach, and Haikal all fairly recently. Plus some past significant scratches such as Uncle Mo, I Want Revenge, and AP Indy. There are a ton I did not mention or forgot I am sure as well.
Seems like this year the mood is not the typical I have enough points and I am running scenario with a number of apparently healthy horses waiting for the Preakness or going in a different spot. I think it is better than even money that King Fury has a chance to go if he wants - even if it means getting in from the AE list.
Rock Your World certainly has the talent. Would be interested in the stats on a runner trying dirt for the second time after previously running on turf only. Have never been a fan of coming back with them. Certainly not at 4/1 in a 20 horse field.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I would lean towards a move forward, since the first time on it was a positive result. Grass horses tend to run good at the downs as well.
Highly Motivated second time around two turns, does he move forward?
Very interesting derby #s wise.
GL
Very interesting indeed, both the Derby and Oaks. I’ve started to put together the seminar, and there is no shortage of pure sheets related handicapping things to talk about.
Yes interesting a good word.
First could we stop talking about Rock Your World as a \"turf horse?\" Two starts
turf, one dirt. One stakes win on each surface. My biggest concern if I liked
him would be his relative lack of foundation. If I fancied him I would probably
want to see him have two longer works before Derby preferably at CD.
Maybe later I will search archives (free to all) to investigate history of
Derby runners who broke maiden on turf? Not expecting to find much. The truth
is that the only way we will see what might be considered a \"turf horse\"
running in the Derby is if a Euro turfer or North American runner with strictly
grass 2YO form runs 1-2 in a 100 point prep.
Barbaro and Sea Hero both had 2YO turf form but both (like Rock Your World)
also won major dirt races prior to winning their Derbies. Barbaro won the Holy
Bull and Florida Derby, Sea Hero won the Champagne and campaigned strictly on
dirt as a 3YO prepping for Derby.
Trivia uncovered: (a) Animal Kingdom is the only Kentucky Derby winner to win a
Grade I race at age 5? (b) Paul Mellon, owner of Sea Hero, only owner to win
Kentucky Derby, Epsom Derby (aka The Derby) and Prix Arc de Triomphe.
Looking over the past derby seminars, the variance of tops to Xs being run between 2 preps 3 preps and 4 preps speak for themselves.
Wonder what the data says for 1 prep?
As far as preps go, I am assuming any race run as a three year old prior to the derby is considered a prep?
Pletcher has won Derbies with a two prep horse and a three prep horse.
O’Neil won both of his with two prep horses.
Looking forward to the seminar..
Big Brown is another who broke his maiden on turf. Also one that lacked foundation.
Finished up the career with a pretty fast turf win, if memory serves.
I wondered about one prep horses as well. Looking at one prep going into the Derby did not yield anything too interesting as far as I was concerned. Since the archives go back to 1997, I used that as a starting date and looked through to find any starters with one prep. There were only seven horses that had one prep. Two were from Saeed bin Suroor, four were from Aidan O’Brien and one was from William Currin. Most were foreign horses and a couple had won the UAE Derby. Analysis was difficult as there a couple of horses that had no 2YO foreign figures. I have summarized their performances below. The data points are few in nearly 25 years and they were a mixed bag. A new top, a couple of paired tops, and couple of X’s including one being eased and couple where there were not any 3YO figure to make an assessment. I also added the only entrant in that time span without a prep.
0 Prep Race
1999 Worldly Manner - 9/9 8.5 (paired top); 5/1 6.25 (new top) bin Suroor, Saeed
1 Prep Race
2000 China Vista - 3/25 8.00 (top â€" only figure); 5/6 5.50 (new top) bin Suroor, Saeed
2001 Express Tour â€" 3/24 2.00 (top â€" 2YO top 5.00); 5/5 7.25 (X) bin Suroor, Saeed
2002 Johannesburg â€" 4/7 ?.?? (no figure â€" 2YO Top 6.25); 5/4 6.25 (paired 2YO top ) O\'Brien, Aidan P.
2002 Castle Gandolfo â€" 4/6 ?.?? (no figure â€" no 2YO figures); 5/4 7.00 (???) O\'Brien, Aidan P.
2003 Otta Here â€" 3/29 8.25 (2YO top 2.75); 5/3 3.25 (paired 2YO top) Currin, William L.
2012 Daddy long Legs â€" 3/31 5.00 (2YO top 7.75); 5/5 XX (eased â€" no figure) O’Brien, Aidan P.
2013 Lines of Battle â€" 3/30 4.25 (2YO top 9.00); 5/4 5.00 (paired 3YO top) O’Brien, Aidan P.
About ROCK YOUR WORLD and jockey Joel Rosario: Of course, Rosario is a great jockey and a positive asset, especially because he’s been Sadler’s go-to boy. Yet I’ve been stunned to watch Rosario get off poorly so many times recently, it’s pretty comical. On opening day at Keeneland this meet, he was slam-dunk OP/missed the break completely 4 times! It was stunning to watch. [On the other hand, we\'ve all seen him ride speedball KNICKS GO to big wins.] Otherwise, all too often it seems, it’s as if he purposely drops back in the opening quarter so as to be behind the field, only to necessitate a 5-wide trip for his closing kick. So buyer beware. Missing the break in the Derby is toast.
It seems the winning ThoroGraph for this Derby will be a 0-ish. A 0.5? A 0.75? Unless someone can wire the field with a 1w1w trip and finish first with a 1.25, like MAXIMUM SECURITY did.
Which means that ROCK YOUR WORLD will have to improve from his Santa Anita Derby wire job. The argument FOR that scenario is the undeniable truth that since mid-March (like last year), Sadler’s horses have exploded into Oaklawn. Strong er… enhancements have occurred. When the money showed, his horses have run huge the in the past month. [In the first half of that meet, he was a bet against. But it all changed on a dime in mid-March.] Are these enhancements continuing to happen in Kentucky? Watch the skies. The argument AGAINST any Derby improvement for RYW is, well, the idea that maybe RYW’s Santa Anita Derby level is the full-toll expenditure already. And a pair-up won’t be enough. Plus, John Sadler hasn’t been a guy that historically does well with [Derby trail] 3-year olds or even shippers into Kentucky. He’s been erratic there.
RYW is my pick currently.
Definitely wasn’t excited about the jock change that is for sure.
But I doubt Joel is gonna pussyfoot on derby day.
They draw inside it may be a wire job.
GL
Heard that they are on the fence for Caddo River - he may be another more than likely going to the Preakness. That\'s a tough decision if you train Essential Quality as Caddo River certainly was going to add speed to the field and likely push Rock Your World early. That would give the favorite something to run at. The way it is going, Rock Your World may end up as the lone speed as he ran Medina Spirit and Dream Shake off their feet and Santa Anita. Not sure Hot Rod Charlie is quick enough early or Midnight Bourbon.
Wasn’t that the situation with Mendolsohn? Freaked turf to dirt and then didn’t run anywhere near as well the next couple if I’m remembering correctly? There was plenty of talk here in the forum expecting the forward move or at least a pair up in KY that didn’t materialize. But this one “should†be on the lead, maybe a fairly “easy†one to boot.
How long has it been since someone has won not being on the front end? Orb, Animal Kingdom, I’ll Have Another, they were a while ago already. Seems like lately it’s mandatory to be stalking or on the pace. That’s one of the main reasons I don’t want a short price on the most decorated and likely post time favorite at all.
Sigh... guess I’ll have to wait a little while to torch off my money backing him... I really did think I might end up betting the ml favorite this year for the first time in, I don’t know, close to forever. Then I was thinking, great now you’ll get a price on him. I mean, Was his AK derby really “that bad?†One subpar effort, 3rd by a head in a grade 1 million dollar race and forget about it. Tough justice indeed.
It seems EQ doesn’t like being anywhere but outside. Jock kinda confirmed it in a a post BG interview. That’s pretty problematic in a 20 horse field.
KNOWN AGENDA\'s sheet is interesting. Improved substantially (11 to 3 1/2) when dropping to the allowance race and getting blinkers. Then another nice 2 point improvement in Florida Derby. Just wondering if your opinion will be he\'s had too much development from 2yo year to Florida Derby?
your reading it wrong, he has not had that much improvement off his 2 yr top
its not the 11
I believe that \"other number\" is the one JB revised. It makes the horse a win candidate as opposed to a toss as a bounce candidate.
Yes revised, and it\'s right. Only two turn race on the day, he and Greatest Honor were way clear. Until they came back and ran fast it was tough to know.
From what I\'ve seen on their board Jake has a lot of them similar to us, but I\'m dying to see what they did with La Derby and Wood days. Both were very tricky. Lots of important horses will be coming out of those days, and not just in the Derby. Good luck to the only figure maker who assumes tracks don\'t change speed.
Revised #?
Whoops, went back and realize I made a mistake....EQ\'s last 3 races were all about the same. Not surprising coming out of that barn.
Jerry:
You often disparage your sheets competition. Fine with us. But in the current age of sheets-speak, it begs the question: Does Brad Cox use ThoroGraph or the competition? When he says in interviews that he thinks one of his his runners “will move forward,†is he referencing your sheets? Or Jake’s “tricky†numbers?
Can you tell us which Kentucky Derby trainers use and rely on ThoroGraph?
What you have in the Derby package is correct (after revision).
As far as I know Cox isn’t using mine, and as a general rule I’m not talking about which horsemen (owners, trainers, breeders etc.) use ours unless they do first. I don’t love it when people use me for advertising (which lots of ads for stallions do), my guess is others don’t liked being used that way either. I know for a fact one very big trainer doesn’t.
I was disparaging their methods, not their figures. There’s a difference, I can back up my reasoning (and have), it’s not just an assertion. And I haven’t done it “often†recently, if at all.
JB you\'re killing me.
Yes I know anyone can buy data, but when stud farms use TGs or Rags or Beyer in
their ads they pay no one?
When I hear over the top race calls in the stallion ads the announcers are not
compensated??
Not paying and not getting paid at every possible opportunity is not American.
Apparently they can use anything we have published, including any comments I make in seminars or ROTW. My guess is race calls are different, but who knows.
they weren\'t the same on TG numbers at all
That\'s why I\'m \'confused\'....regardless, I can\'t make a case against this horse even though I think he won\'t win.
From my prior message in this string if I have placed this correctly.
I\'m just going to set this right here for everyone to recall. . . Too bad I did not believe he could win when I put it out here almost exactly what would happen. More when time permits.
Even the most hardened of horse players that see where drugs have taken the game, can still get some Derby fever! Especially when BB doesn\'t have them over a barrel. Although last year\'s \"training job\" with getting a horse that couldn\'t run the Haskell distance to stretch out to the Derby distance and win always makes one nervous of the rabbits he can pull out of a hat. Generally, everyone can see whatever he does works best when sent hard to the lead just like Arrogate at the Travers several years back. MS and CT weren\'t able to or didn\'t do that in their last preps.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From my prior message in this string if I have
> placed this correctly.
>
> I\'m just going to set this right here for everyone
> to recall. . . Too bad I did not believe he could
> win when I put it out here almost exactly what
> would happen. More when time permits.
>
>
>
>
> Even the most hardened of horse players that see
> where drugs have taken the game, can still get
> some Derby fever! Especially when BB doesn\'t have
> them over a barrel. Although last year\'s \"training
> job\" with getting a horse that couldn\'t run the
> Haskell distance to stretch out to the Derby
> distance and win always makes one nervous of the
> rabbits he can pull out of a hat. Generally,
> everyone can see whatever he does works best when
> sent hard to the lead just like Arrogate at the
> Travers several years back. MS and CT weren\'t able
> to or didn\'t do that in their last preps.
Crystal Ball who ran in the 9th race at Churchill yesterday is the definition of what you describe here. Went to the front. Was headed by Market Rumor. Hit another gear. Drew away. Time and time again -- exactly what his horses do. Not normal.