One of the few races which will pull me away from March Madness this weekend. Mostly we have the locals, those that ran well in the LeComteand and Risen Star. Of those, it appears to me Mandaloun is the most accomplished to date.
Asmussen\'s colt Midnight Bourbon seems to have developed nicely since last season. Connections hopes may be trumping patience as 3rd in the Risen Star may signal - give me some time to recover. Regardless he\'ll attract plenty of bettors just because of his trainer Asmussen\'s stats.
The Brian Cox colt Mandaloun proved best the last meeting of the three amigos. Differing opinions from he improved, MB regressed and Proxy had a troubled wide trip.
It could be Trainer Stidham\'s colt Proxy\'s turn to win. He probably earned the best figure last out and I haven\'t watched the replay yet to ascertain if and how much the bump in his last affected his race.
It would seem these \"Three Amigos\" are comparable. Not Funny Cide, Empire Maker, and Peace Rules. OR Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit, and Free House.
Run Classic probably adds to the crowd up front. Did Run Happy ever win a race beyond a mile even though his breeding should not have inhibited? However, imo the dam in this case suggests sprint to a middle distance. Crazy old bloodline consideration. Price may justify a stab.
RightandJust reminds me of a Dusty Springfield chorus. That\'s wishing-and-hoping for the younger readers. He was 30/1 in his last meeting with these and did nothing to reduce that price. So sounds like a good one to put in the 4th place slot.
Starringinmydreams trained by Dallas Stewart and owned in partnership with Winstar put him on my radar. Add-in, the colt was rank in the Risen Star yet comes back in this race. How many times do we have to see one of Stewart\'s colt surprises in a 3 y/o classic at a price to pay attention to.
For me, it gonna boils down to what price we can get on Hot Rod Charlie. This colt ran second in last year\'s Breeders Cup Juvenile. I was a fan of Oxbow (the sire) in his 3 y/o season which makes this one a sentimental pick (don\'t be ridiculous). What\'s curious to me is trainer Mora has to ship to the BIG EASY away from Baffert to earn any Ky Derby qualifying points. He\'s no cinch and will have to pass more than a couple of contenders. I don\'t expect Rosario to ride as he did in the Rebel and I\'m OK with a well-timed race that runs them down in the stretch can I get 2/1?
Subject to prices, I\'m thinking, tri\'s Hot Rod over Proxy & Mandalown over Starryinginmydreams and Run Classic.
This would not be the first time that I had the ground loss wrong, but I had Proxy inside Mandaloun on both turns in the Risen Star (tipping out turning for home) and earning a figure that was 1.5 to 2 points slower. Proxy is second-time Velazquez and adding blinkers. I wonder if Velazquez suggested them.
I don\'t know what to make of Midnight Bourbon\'s recent bullet work.
I agree that Hod Rod Charlie is interesting. Former poster Derby1592 has mentioned on Twitter that he has been betting this horse in the futures pools. Trainer of record Mora is an assistant to the suspended Doug O\'Neill. (I\'d like to see data providers start ignoring these interim trainers of record and start showing stats for the real trainer.) My question is how he will handle the stretchout from 8.5 furlongs to 9.5. It could be discouraging that he did not get by Medina Spirit or hold off Roman Centurian in the Lewis, but he may not have been fully cranked, and that should not be an issue on Saturday. Based on the betting in the futures pool two weeks ago, I think you\'ll get at least 2-1.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> This would not be the first time that I had the
> ground loss wrong, but I had Proxy inside
> Mandaloun on both turns in the Risen Star (tipping
> out turning for home) and earning a figure that
> was 1.5 to 2 points slower. Proxy is second-time
> Velazquez and adding blinkers. I wonder if
> Velazquez suggested them.
Now that I\'ve watched a replay of the Risen Star -> Video (https://www.americasbestracing.net/races/2021-risen-star-s-presented-lamarque-ford) it does appear to me that Proxy had a shorter trip than Mandaloun up to the second half of the second turn where Proxy appeared to lose lots of ground. Also, an examination of Starinmydreams trip leaves me befuddled. Appears the Jockey Saez was asleep at the wheel when the gates opened. Then Starinmydreams eagerly ran up and into another competitor ultimately settling into a long rally that carried him almost up to the leaders before getting stopped and started and stopped finally just cruising home. a non-effort. So I still think this one has upside and may even attend the pace Saturday.
> I don\'t know what to make of Midnight Bourbon\'s
> recent bullet work.
His last, a :49 4F could indicate the training team relaxing and could think he\'s ready. The extra furlong gives me pause and I\'ll leave him off my tickets. The rest all seemingly working 1:00 5F\'s so AOK
> I agree that Hod Rod Charlie is interesting.
> Former poster Derby1592 has mentioned on Twitter
> that he has been betting this horse in the futures
> pools. Trainer of record Mora is an assistant to
> the suspended Doug O\'Neill. (I\'d like to see data
> providers start ignoring these interim trainers of
> record and start showing stats for the real
> trainer.) My question is how he will handle the
> stretchout from 8.5 furlongs to 9.5. It could be
> discouraging that he did not get by Medina Spirit
> or hold off Roman Centurian in the Lewis, but he
> may not have been fully cranked, and that should
> not be an issue on Saturday. Based on the betting
> in the futures pool two weeks ago, I think you\'ll
> get at least 2-1.
I watched the replay of the Lewis -Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_Mv6JMBpi4) a virtual three-way dead heat. It could be that I overestimate Medina Spirit. If the raging Cajuns are underwhelmed by the shipper and like many didn\'t know the significance of the trainer. Oh Well.
I appreciate your added info.
5 minutes of my life I’ll never get back. All of this and not a thing related to ThoroGraph.
It would not be unusual for me to be off by a point in my estimates of ground loss, but I have the first four all earning figures within a quarter point of each other.
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> It would not be unusual for me to be off by a
> point in my estimates of ground loss, but I have
> the first four all earning figures within a
> quarter point of each other.
HRC ran 47 flat! I\'m not sure what his fig will be, but that is very fast, especially at Fair grounds!
The top two went 1-2 all the way around the track just like last year with WELLS BAYOU and NY TRAFFIC.