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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: P-Dub on November 07, 2020, 03:35:37 PM

Title: What A Day
Post by: P-Dub on November 07, 2020, 03:35:37 PM
Other than Vequist, an absolutely brutal 2 days for me....a far cry from last year.

Congrats to those that had Glass Slippers.

Euros getting Lasix, particularly 1st time, are must uses on the turf. Doesn\'t matter what their numbers are, exclude them at your own risk.

Audarya had a nice pattern, a touch slower than some, and got 1st Lasix.
Order of Australia 1st Lasix, slow going in, blows up the tote board.
Tarnawa a nice pattern and 1st Lasix and was MUCH the best.

How did everyone do??
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: TGJB on November 07, 2020, 05:17:28 PM
Stauffer did great in the contest, a lot better than I did. We will be announcing something TGPS related with Vic soon.

Problem with that contest is all bets are not created equal. You bet a lot more at the end than at the beginning.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: johnnym on November 07, 2020, 05:33:28 PM
Well P

I lost the late pick 5 Friday on the last leg.
Saturday thanks to the Seminar I singled Gamine and hit the early pick 3
Knicks go was a single as well
Had the cold EX in the distaff.
Same in the Classic

Got killed on my Saturday pick 4&5 got knocked out in the first leg of both of them.
Then hit the late pick 3

Ended up a bit nothing crazy.

But gotta say today was the first day I felt a bit of normalcy.
College football stadiums have some FANS and the Irish band is playing the fight song.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: Socalman3 on November 07, 2020, 06:26:22 PM
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Other than Vequist, an absolutely brutal 2 days
> for me....a far cry from last year.
>
> Congrats to those that had Glass Slippers.
>
> Euros getting Lasix, particularly 1st time, are
> must uses on the turf. Doesn\'t matter what their
> numbers are, exclude them at your own risk.
>
> Audarya had a nice pattern, a touch slower than
> some, and got 1st Lasix.
> Order of Australia 1st Lasix, slow going in, blows
> up the tote board.
> Tarnawa a nice pattern and 1st Lasix and was MUCH
> the best.
>
> How did everyone do??

If I understand correctly, next year\'s breeders cup is supposed to be run with no lasix, so this year was the last year to use that angle.

Interestingly, next year, you will have Euros coming over and not getting lasix, but the US horses will all be running Lasix off.  That will present its own separate handicapping challenge.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: jbelfior on November 08, 2020, 05:29:48 AM
Not a bad day.
Caught the turf sprint thanks to TG. Caught ol\' man Whitmore (incredible ride by Irad) and the number. Would have been a career day if Manny Wah didn\'t get mugged in the stretch. Easily second at 65-1 with any luck.

Dunbar Road for second would have been nice. Valiance? Really?

Caught the Bafferts in the Classic (btw I love the racing comments on Twitter asking why no one runs early with him. Uh, it\'s because they can\'t). Tacitus for 3rd would have also made a career day.

You have to take what you get in this game and be thankful on those rare days when all of the the work pays off.

Once again, thank you TG for jump starting the day!!!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: johnnym on November 08, 2020, 06:48:59 AM
Just curious
As I sit in my living room under a tropical storm warning
In the Distaff why did you not like Valiance?
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: jbelfior on November 08, 2020, 07:09:49 AM
Wide post. Off of a 4 point jump with nothing in the past to indicate that\'s anything near what she is.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: johnnym on November 08, 2020, 07:23:32 AM
Correct me if I’m wrong
She made the jump going from turf to dirt for the first time.
I read it that she might prefer the dirt.
Word was she was training really well also.
Sometimes I believe people get to caught up on the PP.
Regarding that, I am always cautious on inside posts if the horse is not a speed horse, especially in full fields. Art Collector was almost sideways going into the first turn. Wide posts had there share of winners yesterday.
Thanks for the response
Gonna be a rainy few days here in South FLA.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: Bet Twice on November 08, 2020, 12:03:16 PM
Overall, a positive two days.  Heartbreaker in the mile - was alive to 6 horses in the pick four, paying between 5-8k.  Would have been a huge score for me as a relatively small better.  Figures were spot on.  Mjellish once commented he gives euros 2 points for adding Lasix and the relatively faster pace in US turf races.  Seems to be a good rule of thumb.  Should have been a much better day had I structured my bets accordingly.  Loved Authentic but stupidly only played tri’s, and didn’t use the 3rd place finisher.  As always, coulda, shoulda, woulda....the life of a horseplayer.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: jerry on November 08, 2020, 12:06:09 PM
I made out ok mostly due to Motions horse in the third race on Friday and a fat finger on the all button in the triples. It’s the best I can do on these BC days when a shotgun works better than a rifle. Shoot for third or better in the tris with liberal use of the all button.

That said, I couldn’t have missed Order of Australia’s race anymore than I did. He was the only horse I threw out. Didn’t key any of O’Brien’s horses in that race. Kind of a stingy triple payout considering the odds.

All in all came out ahead which is a rarity for me. Not sure I like Keeneland as the venue. Pretty place but small oval.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: jerry on November 08, 2020, 12:14:41 PM
Not sure what was going on with the turf course on Friday but in the BYE BYE MELVIN race I used the 1,2 and 3 horses who were supposed to be the early speed and they just got laid over by the middle of the field in the first quarter mile. In a big field I’ll take ground loss into the first turn over ground saved. The crush is brutal.
Title: Re: What A Day
Post by: jbelfior on November 08, 2020, 02:10:07 PM
Good point about the inside post that Dunbar had. It concerned me as well.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Inside on Kentucky Grass courses
Post by: relgan1 on November 08, 2020, 11:06:44 PM
A very true comment in this thread about how the inside paths on anything but firm turf are not where you want to be. This is absolutely true. Moisture dries to the inside at both Keeneland and Churchill and it might as well be an X. In this weekends case, Keeneland to their credit labeled the course good. It had not dried out from the rains from the previous week.