Horses who chase a lone front runner quite often tire. It takes a horse with heart to chase a lone speed, pass him and go on to win.
They said Bold Forbes was a sprinter and he won the Derby and The Belmont.
They say Came Home is a sprinter.But he has shown he can chase a lone speed, he can be boxed in on the rail swing out and keep running, he can lay 4th off a hot pace. He\'s quite versitile.
The post position draw had McCarron smiling.
The rest of Came Homes attributes are obvious. The only knock seems to be his TG pattern, which is subject to interpretation.
I see his worst figure this year as better than his best last year. I see the SA Derby as a breather for him. I think he gets back to the 1 in the Derby, wins by a couple and his pattern circles back putting him in a good position to win the triple crown.
So the bet is $200 to win on Came Home.
safe trip.
MO
This analysis is a perfect example of why people shouldn\'t use both TG and Ragozin sheets, but rather stick with just one of the products.
I am a Rags player and from the little bit of clues you gave in the above posting I can tell that CAME HOME looks totally different, pattern-wise, on the 2 sheets. I would go as far as saying that he\'s probably one of the 1st horses to eliminate from consideration according to Rags, yet apparently looks extremely formidable (at least on some people\'s analysis) when using TG.
I\'ll make you a deal, Mark. I won\'t say anything if CAME HOME runs up the track, as long as you don\'t gloat (well, just not too much) if he wins, lol.
Meanwhile, if CAME HOME wins it says more for TG\'s numbers than it does for Rags\' numbers if he\'s nowhere, as there will be several horses that look decent on either product that won\'t be close. This race is too wide-open to make perfect sense when it\'s all over.
Tim,
Mark does not share the views of many TG users. Came Home looks equally crappy on the TG sheets, I can\'t remember a horse who has finished in the money on derby day after backing up in his previous two races. And as far as \"chasing lone speed\", I think I could have passed Mayakovsky in the stretch on my own two legs that day he was backing up so badly. Sorry, I\'m just not that impressed. I still think he is a great horse at a mile and has a bright future ahead, this is just the wrong goal for him.
Guys,
I don\'t know what the Rags say. I don\'t use their product. I do look at the Beyer figs though, and he looks \"equally crappy\" there as well. LOL .
But it is fair to say that other TG players are in disagreement with me.
Thats racing.
MO
have to agree with treadhead here, Came Home looks like a miler, whether it\'s using Thoro, Rags, or anything else. I give MO credit though, every handicapper in the nation is tossing Came Home. At 8-1 or 9-1, take a shot, you have the best mile and a quarter jock in the world. (and I think a wet track, which now looks possible, may carry this horse a bit further than most think). Still, I have to side with everyone else here, and play the two best closers, Saarland and Perfect Drift, the best stalker, Buddha, and one of the foreign horses.
Good luck to evyone !!!
I find it somewhat interesting that I agree COMPLETELY with several of you in that Saarland and Perfect Drift are my top 2 contenders, although I will use Johannesburg simply on the chance that he\'s better on dirt than turf. For such a wide-open Derby, it certainly seems like several of us (even using competing products) come up with the same horses. I\'m not even sure these 2 stand out on Rags, but they do have healthy patterns and are both 15-1 on the morning line (I expect Saarland to be a bit lower at post time), and that\'s good enough for me. Maybe we can get an Oaks/Derby double of Imperial Gesture/Perfect Drift with luck on our side. That would be a GREAT payoff.