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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: TGJB on August 14, 2020, 10:28:06 AM

Title: ROTW Returns
Post by: TGJB on August 14, 2020, 10:28:06 AM
For reasons that hopefully will be obvious if you watch the NBC telecast, ROTW returns this week. And I have to say after reading the Jake board, it sounds like their sheets for each filly Could not sound more different. Whatever the result.
Title: Re: ROTW - Harvey's Lil Goil
Post by: BitPlayer on August 15, 2020, 08:18:34 AM
TGJB -

TG has Harvey\'s Lil Goil\'s very fast Busanda top a lot faster than Beyer (maybe 4 points after adjusting for weight and ground loss).  Craig Milkowski has talked about the difficulty of making figures for Aqueduct this winter.  How confident do you feel in the figure?
Title: Re: ROTW Returns
Post by: ajkreider on August 15, 2020, 09:42:28 AM
Thx for putting it up.

I don\'t quite get your take on Crystal Ball.  When I look at the sheet, I see a lightly raced filly who hasn\'t gone backwards, even as the distances have gone longer. Her last out fig is only bettered by SSD and Spice, the latter of which reacted off that number after a 7-week break.  She does have the breeding to go longer, but Swiss does not.  She\'s a play against on that alone.  

Do like Harvey\'s chances at 10F, though.

If the line stays at 9/2, that\'s a fair price.  Those two would make a nice exacta.
Title: Re: ROTW - Harvey's Lil Goil
Post by: TGJB on August 15, 2020, 10:21:14 AM
It was the only two turn race of the day. I took a look, on what the rest of the field has done since it’s either right or close.
Title: Re: ROTW - Harvey's Lil Goil
Post by: BitPlayer on August 15, 2020, 11:04:38 AM
Thanks.
Title: Re: ROTW - Harvey's Lil Goil
Post by: Marlin on August 15, 2020, 02:29:15 PM
OK, I\'m on Twinspires & see odds of 3/4 on Swiss Driver.  NEVER seen odds @ 1/4 points ever.   When did this ever start??
Title: Re: ROTW Returns
Post by: Bet Twice on August 15, 2020, 02:47:11 PM
I like the new treatment for the word Thorograph on the first page.....looks classy.  If they only knew ;)
Title: Re: NYRA Nickel Breakage
Post by: BitPlayer on August 15, 2020, 10:45:03 PM
NYRA has had nickel breakage on low-odds bets (up to 4/1 I think) for quite a while.  Steven Crist was instrumental in the change from dime to nickel breakage.  My guess is that you just don\'t see it displayed that way too often because most fractions are awkward. 3/4 works.  17/20 does not and would probably be displayed as 4/5 even though the actual payout would be $3.70 (not $3.60) on a $2 bet.