As racing limps its way back to full strength I’ve been struggling when to use the super trainers. They are bet down 90% of the time so they offer no value. I find myself hemorrhaging cash every time I try to beat them. Many times their entires are points slower and they’re bet and they win. I’ve been knocked out of my horizontals many times already because I couldn’t use one of them just because based on recent form or pattern they don’t fit. Anyone else going through this? Anyone else tired of this?
i always try to get leverage with pick 3s or pick 4s...or 5s.. supers and tris seem to pay very well as well as exactas if you can catch at least a 10-1 shot with a horse that is more heavily wagered. personally im all about the pick 4s and 5s especially at bigger pool tracks. NY always pays great when one horse wins at $20 in a leg even if more chalk horses pay lower the other legs.
When the figs aren\'t figuring for you with the super trainers, try creating an edge by focusing on the other angles that are talked about extensively here...weight, ground loss and tendencies.
Example: June 12th Belmont Race 6. F&M 1 1/8 on the turf, weights relatively even. Chad and Irad in the 10 post with the 3-2 favorite.
#3 coming off a long layoff with competitive back figures goes off 55-1. Looking at TG sheet, she threw a big figure coming off a previous long layoff (tendency).
She breaks to front, gets rail trip and leads for a mile before #10, who gets a 3w/2w trip reaches her in mid stretch. They duel to wire and fast closing #8 gets the nod in a three way photo.
Finishes 8-3-10. #3 loses race by a nose and pays $40 to place, $13.80 for show.
TG Analysis - calls out #3 for use in the exotics and doesn\'t mention #10. I assume the reason was a) value, b) competitive back figs, c) past tendency and d) potential ground saving trip vs potential ground losing trip for 3-2 favorite.
If #10 gets the better of the trip, she wins the race easily.
Bottom line - if you\'re spending good money for the data, use the figs as the foundation, but keep a close eye on the tendencies. Value is getting harder and harder to find.