Nice to have Belmont back with a great betting card today. Shug sends out two exciting colts making their 4 year old debuts and as much as I think both have big 2 year old campaigns ahead of them, today is a day to play against them at low odds.
1. FF- has the numbers, but let\'s see how he does first time away from Service. Toss at low odds.
2. Performer- super talented colt who I think has a big year ahead. Will get a good trip but probably needs a new top to get into the top spots. Shug\'s as steady as they come, and will have this one ready, but going to play against him for top honors and use defensively underneath.
3. Still Having Fun- Has a race 2 years ago at the track that would make him playable to hit the board but has done nothing outside of Laurel since then to even consider. Easy Toss
4. Nitrous- Needs a new top and today could be the day. Got right back to his three year top in his 4 yr. old debut and has had plenty of time off to fire a good one today. Wide trip likely so tough to endorse for all the marbles, but definite use underneath at the price.
5. Network Effort- Already has a three year old fig to contend and now gets 8 pounds from the fastest horse and looks to be sitting on a forward move. Not expecting to get ML odds, but anything in 5-1 range makes him the play.
6. Midnightcharley- too slow. toss
7. American Anthem- has races that at one point would have made him the favorite for this race. Has since fallen off with new trainer. A return to those races would make him a major player and double digit price makes this guy interesting. Will be using in all slots.
8. Bon Raison- Heavy hitter has some goods races but most are ground loaded. Another wide trip coming and OTB most likely outcome.
9. Majestic Dunhill- Has only one race in his lifetime that would give him a chance to hit the board. Toss
10. Mind Control- Fastest horse in the race and has has plenty of time since 2 point top. However, at the weight and another wide trip he is a play against at low odds.
11. Vekoma- Tough horse to watch run with paddling style but no doubting there\'s some talent here. First race was perfect comeback and expect him to fire another strong one here today.Must use.
The Play
Key- 5
A\'s= 4,7,11
B\'s= 2
C\'s= 10
Good luck!
I am seeing on Twitter that Performer will scratch with a minor ankle injury.
With regard to weights, be sure to check the overweights. I have read that, because the jocks cannot use the hot box, jockeys have decided that they will be adding two pounds to horses slated to carry 118 or less and one pound to horses slated to carry 119.
Vekoma is interesting to me, his two year old top was very fast, and he has only just gotten back to it 1st time 4 year old. To me that means that there is more room for improvement, after all if he could run that number as a 2 year old, just normal growth and development should mean at 4 he should improve; Candy Ride horses generally improve about 6 points from 2 year old to 4 year old (See sire profile), so if he can improve a little he has a good chance.
I agree that Firenze Fire is iffy, given what we have learned about Servis, but he sure is fast, as is Mind Control,( weight and should lose ground), both of those will be short prices, so I am going with Vekoma, weird gate and all.
If that\'s the case then this race just got a lot less interesting. Vekoma will go off solid favorite and tough to toss. Will still be playing race by trying to get the 4 or 7 into the tri and toss the 10 and 1.
Good luck
bfick Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice to have Belmont back with a great betting
> card today. Shug sends out two exciting colts
> making their 4 year old debuts and as much as I
> think both have big 2 year old campaigns ahead of
> them, today is a day to play against them at low
> odds.
>
> 1. FF- has the numbers, but let\'s see how he does
> first time away from Service. Toss at low odds.
> 2. Performer- super talented colt who I think has
> a big year ahead. Will get a good trip but
> probably needs a new top to get into the top
> spots. Shug\'s as steady as they come, and will
> have this one ready, but going to play against him
> for top honors and use defensively underneath.
> 3. Still Having Fun- Has a race 2 years ago at the
> track that would make him playable to hit the
> board but has done nothing outside of Laurel since
> then to even consider. Easy Toss
> 4. Nitrous- Needs a new top and today could be the
> day. Got right back to his three year top in his 4
> yr. old debut and has had plenty of time off to
> fire a good one today. Wide trip likely so tough
> to endorse for all the marbles, but definite use
> underneath at the price.
> 5. Network Effort- Already has a three year old
> fig to contend and now gets 8 pounds from the
> fastest horse and looks to be sitting on a forward
> move. Not expecting to get ML odds, but anything
> in 5-1 range makes him the play.
> 6. Midnightcharley- too slow. toss
> 7. American Anthem- has races that at one point
> would have made him the favorite for this race.
> Has since fallen off with new trainer. A return to
> those races would make him a major player and
> double digit price makes this guy interesting.
> Will be using in all slots.
> 8. Bon Raison- Heavy hitter has some goods races
> but most are ground loaded. Another wide trip
> coming and OTB most likely outcome.
> 9. Majestic Dunhill- Has only one race in his
> lifetime that would give him a chance to hit the
> board. Toss
> 10. Mind Control- Fastest horse in the race and
> has has plenty of time since 2 point top.
> However, at the weight and another wide trip he is
> a play against at low odds.
> 11. Vekoma- Tough horse to watch run with paddling
> style but no doubting there\'s some talent here.
> First race was perfect comeback and expect him to
> fire another strong one here today.Must use.
>
> The Play
>
> Key- 5
> A\'s= 4,7,11
> B\'s= 2
> C\'s= 10
>
> Good luck!
I do not see Still Having Fun as an easy toss. His 2yo and 3yo campaign suggested that he would fit with these when he got older. His Malibu (considerably outside of Maryland) was against 14 very good horses and he missed second by a head against a runaway McKinzie and I think you x out the rest of that campaign. He got rested and is only 3 races into his new campaign -- in the General George, his most recent race, he got as close to the JASON SERVIS TRAINED Firenze Fire as anybody could. I view that as a buried race. He has been working bullets during the Corona shut down for the 4th race in the campaign. These connections do not have to run in a G1 -- they would not be shy to aim lower if they thought the horse didnt fit. Not saying he is going to win, but I do not see him as an easy toss at all and I do see him as a very long horse who could hit and complicate vertical exotics.
I listened to Paul Matties on the Public Handicapper podcast yesterday. He said that so far, on his figures, former Jason Servis horses are actually running better with their new trainers than they did with Servis.
Won’t that just make great prison yard conversation when Servis & Navarro are walking around in circles.....
I will be closely watching the #2 MONONGAHELA (say that three times, fast!) in the seventh race.
Watching the NYRA feed pre-race, paddock reporter Maggie Wolfendale stated FIRENZE FIRE looked much worse relative to when Jason Servis was training him. And the horse was off-the-board. Best to look back at the end of the year to make a conclusion about the power of Jason Servis\' rocket fuel. Glad Mr. Amore Stable didn\'t give the horse to Chad Brown. Kelly Breen\'s horses have all disappointed so far at Belmont.
Someone tell Paul Matties (whoever he is) that many of the relocated Servis horses were given to new killers! Baffert\'s got MAXIMUM SECURITY. Haha! And I think I saw one with Brad Cox! I mean, that\'s not rocket fuel OFF, that just CHANGING rocket fuel. Let\'s see Michael Dubb or The Wests give a horse to Gary Sciacca - just a nice bread-and-butter 10% trainer. Ain\'t gonna happen.
You could see Firenze trying to run from memory, but nothing in the tank. Slop complicates the analysis just a bit .
Firenze Fire has shown a history of bouncing off top efforts... what was the complication?