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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: BitPlayer on February 10, 2020, 08:11:37 AM

Title: San Vicente; Nadal
Post by: BitPlayer on February 10, 2020, 08:11:37 AM
Nadal seems to be presenting a puzzle for figure makers.  Timeform US had his maiden win slower than Beyer, and then (at least according to Craig Milkowski\'s Twitter feed) the roles are being reversed for the San Vicente, with TFUS having him going forward and Beyer having him going backward.

Looking at the Redboard Room, TG seems to have been in the TFUS camp for the maiden win. In the San Vicente, it looks like the top four will all get TG figs within a point of each other.  If TG has Nadal going forward even a point, it will mean significant new tops for the other three.
Title: Re: San Vicente; Nadal
Post by: ajkreider on February 10, 2020, 06:07:12 PM
The numbers for this one are almost a toss for me. Very fast early, but the top 4 were in it, then it slowed to a crawl at the end.  A 13.5 second last panel won\'t send tingles down even Chris Matthews\' leg.  

The Sam Davis is the more intriguing number. Ajaaweed went back after his big jump, but even going all they way back to his pair gives Sole Volente a VERY strong pattern going forward, especially with 3 months to go. And this number puts him in shouting distance of a win in May. It also would mean IH moved forward a touch over his last, which sets him up to get back to the huge number from last year.
Title: Re: San Vicente; Nadal
Post by: TGJB on February 10, 2020, 07:06:32 PM
We took a run at buying SV after the GP race, to no avail. Derby trail aside, he’s probably the best grass 3yo in the country, if he ever gets back on it.
Title: Re: San Vicente; Nadal
Post by: relgan1 on February 11, 2020, 02:59:20 AM
And to me it reads Independence Hall never gets back to his 2-year-old top.
Title: Re: San Vicente; Nadal
Post by: Tavasco on February 11, 2020, 05:07:01 AM
What puzzles me about Sol Volante is his Mucho Macho Man effort @ GP on 1/4. After a slow start, he came barreling around the turn with a bead on the leading two. He didn\'t appear to hang but he also couldn\'t close on the two pacesetters who just took off and ran away.

So I\'m really curious about the winner and runner up on that day Chance It and As Seen On TV. The last quarter in that race was also done in a crawl?

Sol Volante\'s effort seems to include enormous ground loss. The TG 2 is impressive as was his Sam Davis visually but his GP race wasn\'t.
Title: Re: San Vicente; Nadal
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 12, 2020, 07:18:59 PM
If you mean by never as in never again i\'ll take some of that. Since you said\"never\" i\'ll cut you some slack and take 20/1 odds by end of 2020.