This weeks stop takes us to the LeComte Stakes run at 1 1/16mile at the Fair Grounds
Tough race to handicap with 10 horses coming in from an of track one coming from the turf one from the Astro dirt. FYI forecast has a chance of rain in it
Numerous horses coming in with very similar #s main contenders in my Opinion
#1 Has shown a improving figure with every race likes coming from of the pace and on the rail top # is a 6 over a SY track trainer not very good in stakes races.
Should be coming late which plays well for this track
#2 Another horse with a improving pattern last out # is a 7.3 over a SY track who wins at 19% graded stakes. Stalker who has a second over this course.
Others just as fast with better odds
#4 Class of the race top # of a 6 last race is a throw our for me regarding how the track was playing. Goes back to Lanerie and More Than Readys do improve.
Question is how sharp will he be. A win contender for sure can I find better odds elsewere?
#9 One of three Asmussens the one I like the best. Has his go to jock and has paired his first two races, jump up very possible here
#10 Casse and Frenchy has a very respectful # of 6 two races back then regressed slighty on the slop. Like the breeding a lot. Juicy odds at 15-1
#13 Coming in of the Maiden win over this track with the fastest #5.
Going the route here but breeding suggests no problem.
Jockey trainer combo wins at 21% and he has been hitting 32% tops last 90 days
6-1 ML
hearing the 14 is being scratched and going to the Smarty Jones
My play
13 to win hopefully the speed of the speed gets the lead relaxes and takes em around.
Tri part wheel
13/1-2-4-9-10/1-2-4-7-9-10
1-2-4-9-10/13/1-2-4-7-9-10
Good Luck
John
Johnny,
Nice write up....
I’m not as impressed with the 13 as you are. He is the speed but I feel his debut was a bit dressed up on a speed favoring off track. I watched a few races from that day and there was not a whole lot of movement. From the outside he may have to work a bit to get the lead and he’s going a lot further than his first trip.
I like the 9, Silver State quite a bit. He should love 2 turns and was down inside in big fields in his first 2. The maiden breaker he was much the best, the CD mile in the slop was an impressive race. His works on 12/31 & 1/6 were very fast works, AssMan does not normally go that fast in the AM.
The Keith D. 12 has a punchers chance to get into the number off his first race.
Broke a step slow in the slop 2 heats after the 13 broke his maiden and ran very erratic and green. He should be 40/1....
Looking like about 1/4 inch of rain overnight in NOLA clearing up late morning.
Good luck,
FD
Frank
I believe you could make an argument for the majority of the field In this race.
If the favorite doesn’t hit and you can really narrow a ticket it could be a very profitable race.
I also like the two you mentioned but you have to break some eggs
GL
John
With this big a field, and all the horses numbers close, I am going with longshots, how about the 1, 88-1 last out after being gelded, and ran a very competitive figure, going widest of all finishing 2nd. If he can work an inside trip? Interesting race.
I am interested in him, but he is missing one eye (the right eye, I think). The trainer doesn\'t like the rail draw for that reason. I think he would rather Finnick be outside horses so he can see them. He did get an outside trip in his last and another seems likely today, at least on the second turn.
Regarding his odds in his last, Tiz the Law took a ton of money in that race (3 to 5), which inflated the odds on all the other runners. I\'ll be interested to see how Finnick gets bet today.
As a gent on this board learned me first time gelding is a good angle
Second time not to sure
Would not talk anybody of a price horse in this race
You learn something new every day. Never heard that angle before & been handicapping for 35 years. Thanks for sharing, as all makes sense, I sure would also run my butt off, if someone cut off my balls if I didn\'t run well the race before!!
I think he\'s actually a 3d time gelding. He was reported gelded on the same day as his race two back. Unless they cut him when they got him back to the barn that day (\"This is what happens when you lose!\"), they probably cut him before that race and then reported it the day of the race.
Stumble at the break killed me
Oh well onto the Smarty Jones
This weeks road to the Derby takes us to Oaklawn for the
Smarty Asmussen Jones Stakes
9 runners entered with weight allowance
Asmussen has 4 of the 9 runners entered here
My main contenders
#2) Has run a 6 twice and may be sitting on a move forward 23% to run a new top with his go to jock 5-2
#6) Has won his last two sprinting on a sloppy track pairing he last two #s with a 6 has never been a route, is he a slop specialist?
Asmussen first time route wins at 19% while running new tops 13% of the time. Looks to be the speed. 5-1
#7) Has the fastest # in the race with a 5.2 Have to assume Asmussen is high on this horse running in 3 GR 1 all ready
Santana got of him to get on the 2 and Tyler is flying in
21% to run a new top 3-1
#8) Casse trainee and Casse doesn’t seem to do his best at Oaklawn winning at 13% clip. Numbers wise has paired his last two #s with 7s
Has a good chance to move forward has the stalking running style 6-1
#9) Has ran a pair of 6s them regressed a bit. Is this a 0-2-X pattern?
Stretching out to a route we’re the trainer wins at 12% first time routes
Trainer ships well winning at 26% has Ortiz on him.
Trainer not to good at Oaklawn but very small sample
Sire is not a big name so a bit of a unknown
My 2 cents do not like this race as much as the Lecomte as far as a investor.
So not going crazy here
My top pick
#7 for the win
The maiden may get a piece underneath,horse he finished second to last out just ran big.
GL
Johnny,
I do not consider Three Technique sitting on the X of the 0-2.
His pair of a 6.25 is a healthy sign of a developing 2 yr old, it was not the needed top to fulfill the definition. He regressed with a wide troubled trip and still won the next heat of an 81 day layoff.
TG numbers do not tell the story of this quirky mile distance at Oaklawn. It’s a very short stretch favoring up close runners on the inner paths. Shoplifter and Three Technique are doubly compromised here by running style and post position.
Nucky & Gold Street should provide a lively pace and Silver Prospector should be able to sit a perfect trip and pounce on the pace setters. Big Advantage vs the outside come from out of it types.....
TBD and certainly not enough of a price to get excited about.
Good luck,
FD
I am with Frank on the 0-2-X issue for Three Technique. In his last race, he was 0.15 to 1, ridden to take dirt early, and then geared down after quickly disposing of an overmatched field. Irad almost hit him once in the stretch, but appeared to think better of it. He still has the two-turn issue to address, and I agree with Frank that the post and prospective trip are not in his favor. I am not interested at 9/2.
Like you, I think the maiden is interesting, at least underneath. He would need to move forward, but tis the season and he\'s inside and getting weight (can Geroux make 115?). We\'ll see if we can actually get 12-1 on a Brad Cox trainee.
I am also considering Lynn\'s Map. TG had his last race slower than Beyer, and the runner up (Mr. Monomoy) came out of that race to run well in the Lecomte.
Now watch someone wire the field.
I like your write-up, but I do have to comment on the last 2 horses and your trainer comments on those 2.
#8 Casse\'s #s over a long sample are dragged down by meets 4 & 5 years ago, when he was running a lot more horses at Oaklawn than in recent years. He didn\'t run much at OP in 2017 1 for 1 (Classic Empire in the Ark. Derby) & 2018 0 for 2. Last year he raced sparingly compared with 2015 & 2016 when he ran 75 times and won 7, but when he showed up in 2019 he meant business going 5 for 16. If Casse comes close to 31% again in 2020, then the 13% long term numbers are irrelevant. Right now we don\'t know what we\'re getting, but I\'d be inclined not to write off Casse at OP after last years stellar record.
#9 I can\'t call a regression off an almost 3 month layoff an X as part of an 0-2-X pattern. I prefer to see the races closer together to consider the regression meaningful. Also in that last race TT was geared down the final yards, then in the gallop out was caught but rebroke as he wouldn\'t let the other horses pass him-a very positive sign. As far as the sample on Englehart he\'s brought 2 longshots to 2 stakes with little chance at OP. One of them was the speed in American Pharoah\'s Ark Derby that faded at 38-1 once Pharoah passed him.
Englehart has a full stable of horses at OP for the 1st time in his career, so his past history is meaningless. https://www.oaklawn.com/news/2019/dec/26/trainer-jeremiah-englehart-gearing-first-oaklawn-m/
If anyone is interested, I\'m going to post projected odds (based on DD betting) for the Smarty Jones on Twitter (@ProjectedOdds) once the prior race has been run. You don\'t have to have a Twitter account to see posts there.
Up to now, I have only done it for NYRA races. So far, I\'m finding that the actual win payoff is within 15% of the projected win payoff about half the time. The method is more accurate than that for short-priced horses, presumably due to greater sample size. The accuracy of the method at Oaklawn could be different.
Gentlemen may zag here
Sloppy track brings me to the 6
Won his last 2 in the slop will be on the pace With competitive #s
Going with the 6 to win
Ex box 6/7
Maiden getting lots of $$
Nice zag!
Yes!! Man in fire. Great Pick
Thanks gents
Next week we have three preps.
G3 Withers going 1 1/8
Contenders
#2) Very solid pattern with the fastest #2.
Going two turns for the first time trainer 11% first route and 8% graded stakes.
#4) Finished second behind the two last out with a #3.1
Stretching out as well trainer is 13% juicy odds
#5) Won last out at AQU getting #3.3 coming in a point heavy has the right jock for his running style. 33% chance run a new top.
Gonna take a shot with the 4 hoping the odds hold.
4 win
3 horse ex box 2-4-5
Gl
Going to be a rain out tomorrow
Contenders
#1) Juddmonte Chad Ortiz with a solid moving forward pattern last #6
Chad wins at 23% in Stakes and 41% second route 2 last out.
#3) Fastest back # with a 3.1 then bounced over the sy last out.
Tagg not great in graded stakes giving a point in weight
3/5
#4) winner last out over the gulf track with a big jump up first dirt to a #5.1
Running style helps his chances on the slop
Take the odds with the 4 who won last out.
4 to win
Ex Box 1-4
GL
Not going crazy into this one.
#2)) I tried to find a horse to step up just don’t see it.
2 win
Baffert EX
GL
Weather was not as bad as expected last night this AM cloudy but no rain.
Suppose to ramp up again around noon
GL
Decent rain moved thru last evening but ended about 2AM. Expected to be mostly dry today.
I am intrigued by the #1 in here. The word has been out on this one from race 1. He is being brought along slowly. Having been schooled inside and out in all 3 races. Having said that the 4 cut a Gulfstream pace in last. 45:2 and 1:09:4. The 4 hole is inside enough with the short run to speed pop them. But he needs to break better than last like he did in the Allowance win. Which might be why BianCobra gave him a tune up gate work....
Morning Silver
I think long term the 1 is the legit Derby horse
Chad is smart and won’t have him cranked as he knows the prize is in May
If it’s wet the front end speed is tough
GL
Well we are on the same page here. But we also have to consider with all of them the angle of POINTS!! A win here probably gets just about ANY of these horses in. I dont think any of them are qualified. So there is a point where you need to POP him and manage him from there once you\'ve got your spot......
Agree
Looking into the crystal ball he is the FOY winner
Back to today
GL
TG has the last Laurel race that Monday Morning Qb and New Commission ran a lot faster than others, so I think you\'ll get your prices on those two horses. I prefer Monday Morning Qb just because he is more solid at the level and could wind up alone on the lead. People seem to be projecting a fast pace, but it would not be unusual for jocks to slow things down to make sure they get the distance.
There is the risk that the Maryland shippers won\'t handle the 9f. If that happens, the closer I like is Max Player. I know he\'s slow, but just visually his races look like he\'s still a work in progress. On the other hand, I\'m not sure I want 9-2 on a horse who needs a jump up to win. We\'ll see if the morning line is right.
I don\'t disagree about Thousand Words, but if they hammer the Baffert exacta, I don\'t think High Velocity stands out that much for 2d.
Maybe. Water gets a lot deeper then too. Dennis Moment pointing for that as his comebacker. Other developing types. And what about the Jerkins horse in the Swale coming there too?
I need to see the replay of the last race for the 4. Comment says drifting steadily. If he was getting out he could be a toss. However he figures to be loose on the lead. Soooooo
Seems very speed favoring track to me no?
Aqueduct
2/1/20
Race 8
# Odds
1 43.6
2 5.2
3 5.5
4 20.1
5 1.4
6 6.2
7 16.6
8 3.8
Gulfstream
2/1/20
Holy Bull
# Odds
1 2.6
2 24.8
3 1.1
4 3.8
5 63.7
6 5.5
7 19.2
Impressed by the winner.
Question to the board....if you owned Tiz the Law, would you stick with Manny?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Santa Anita
2/1/20
Bob Lewis
# Odds
1 11.6
2 0.7
3 4.7
4 15.8
5 2.7
6 54.2
I asked one of the owners that question a while ago. The answer is yes.
Joe,
Watching the Gulf track feed and I kid you not!!!Ron Nicoletti actually said
“A flawless ride by Manny Franco†and they pay him for those comments.....
I’m jock shopping if it’s my horse.
Good Luck,
FD
Frank,
AS you know I am close to Sackatoga partner Margaret Phillips. Shortly after the Champagne win, her husband Attorney Bruce Phillips (a guy who never had a bad day) passed from a sudden heart attack at age 60.
I have known Bruce and Margaret for over 35 years (Margaret sold my EF Hutton office our 1st phone system ---AT&T----around 1980. Every year Margaret sponsored a party at the Spa to celebrate Bruce\'s birthday. 50 or more N.E. Pennsylvanians would attend.
I cannot tell you the Sadness and the Joy I feel for Margaret today.
She sent me a paddock photo pre-race and, being totally unbiased, Tiz looked the part. A handful in the barn who attacks everyone and everything. But he sure can run.
Hoping Tiz stays healthy and fit.
Sure am interested in the TG # he ran today.
BTW,
Fairmount met Jack Knowlton- the GP of Sackatoga. But that is a story for him to tell....It\'s a good one. LOL
This week we’re in Tampa for the G3 Sam F Davis over a 1 1/16
Contenders
#1) Ran a pair of 8s then jumped up 6 pts to a 2 trainer is 17% new top and 35% pair after jump ups by at least a pt. Trainer wins at 23% with Rosario who should know this horse pretty good by now.Gets a pt in weight from the favorite. Will there be enough pace and is the distance a bit short today?
#2) Three races three moves forward last race puts him at a 2.25
Trainer is 16% new top and 31% to pair after new top by a pt.
Put in a bullet work on the turf expecting him closer to the pace.
Not crazy about jock choice here Biancone does pretty good with 3 year old this time of year. This one gets a pt in weight as well
#4) Fastest horse in the race running a -2 then regressed to a 3
Trainer stats shows he is not very good with this pattern and it’s a case to much to early as 2 year olds running -# it’s very hard for them to come back to that his first try around two turns and the high weight of the race..
Playing the 2 to win figure he is a bit more sharp and like the long workouts
Then a ex Box 1/2
GL
The Tampa Bay \"Road to the Derby\" has not produced many Derby winners, but the
Tampa Bay Derby has produced Tapwrit (Belmont winner) and two Belmont runner
ups, Tacitus (also third in the Derby) and Destin. (Destin\'s loss in the
Belmont was especially painful for many T-Generates and Rag Men).
The Tampa Bay Derby winner who went on to capture the Roses was Street Sense in
2007.In this year\'s Sammy Davis, we have a son of Street Sense, Albert Park,
who looks interesting to me, even though he is arguably fourth or fifth fastest
in the race, has never won on dirt and has never raced around two turns. So
what is there to like?
1) 15-1 ML.
2) Trainer Stidham batting .300 at TBD, in the exacta with 50% of his starters.
3) Jockey Morales has good strike rate at current Tampa meet, overall, and has
good success when legged up by Stidham.
4) Bred for long (as Frankie Rainbow might say, check out the Tommy)but has run well in sprints.
5)Had a decent run first time over this track with blinkers added.
6) For those who pay attention to such things, a favorable Thoro-Pattern.
7) 15-1 ML.
On a day where weather will prevent prepping for the TG Open, there are some
bettable races late in the AQ card, some decent stakes at Tampa and an
intriguing leaderboard out west in the ATT at Pebble Beach/Spyglass, so a rare
visit to Living Room Downs seems to be in order.
Could this be the (IM) Poster formerly known as Richie ðŸ?
Off the bench and that’s the best you can do at Tampa? 😎
Tampa Pick 5:
8th: It almost seems futile to play against Stormy! We all know or should that fillies and mares are as inconsistent as their 2 legged human twins..... She was nothing but a MONSTER last year, BUT off the bench and spotting weight, 0-3 at the distance and never having run over the Oldsmar course? 3,4,7
9th: A ton of early inside speed sets this one up for Motu or Blame Debbie, Comical will get bet but it’s not fast enough for the first 2. 4,7
10th: A super competitive heat and a chance for a price, the kind of race you never should bet the favorite, even you can’t knock him like CC @ 5/2.
March to the Arch is super consistent, Tyler G certainly knows how to ride a rail trip and is a must use as the 2nd choice. WTF is Saffie Joseph doing in this spot, note his Tampa record this meet! 1,3,5,8
11th: Independence Hall was OP, BO, shied from the whip in his last and bounced 5.75 points on TG off 60 days, has never been 2 turns, spots weight and will be 3/5. WTF do you do with a 2 yr old 2-neg? BEAT ME...... 1,2
12th: Bad race, why can’t all tracks use the Gulf blueprint for big days having the big race the last leg of the pick 4 &5 ? Anyone notice their handle on those days....
4 stakes then you have to bet garbage in the last leg. The 3 will be favored, is no faster than several and not as fast as a couple coming off a 6 month layoff. She probably wins by 10 and knocks me out of a good one..... ðŸ˜, Can’t let DAT HAPPEN 😱
1,2,3,5,9,10
$144 play for $.50 press an extra ticket with Stormy for $48
Onboard with the Sam Davis. Would toss in the Navarro who will certainly be \"on the muscle\" today.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I spent the late hours of this morning watching Hong Kong races and most people running around with white surgical masks on. Some truly eye popping payoffs. I even saw a 50/1 horse coming. More and more I suppose it is what american racing will look like in the future.
In the wee hours of this morning I chose to watch all the replays of the Pasco field ending up with #3 Albert Park as the value horse. This Michael Stidham trainee has not been under the radar until today. He won his first race as the favorite in a full field @ AP. From there to Presque Isle for a 100K again as the favorite he won in gutsy fashion with a wide trip. 2/2 on all-weather somehow he ends up in the G3 Cecille B. DeMille on turf @ DMR in a full field. The winner embarrassed the field in that heat yet Albert Park\'s 6th (if I saw clearly) was in a group and pretty much the same as second. Evenly and credible.
Subsequently, he\'s brought down to FL and Tampa, note he\'s been well spotted to date, attending the:443 pace and finishing 2nd was again a confidence-inspiring performance. Upon close inspection as close as one can perform with semi glaze from an all night effort Albert Park does not seem to have the physique of a sprinter. He has some length and is a long-striding colt.
At that point, I refer back to the data to discover that his sire is Street Sense and that is good when considering a stretch out in distance. Furthermore, he was only really outrun in his DMR race. So via appearance added distance would not be a problem.
In considering the Sam Davis Stakes from a pace perspective it is clear to me that #6 Premier Star is a quick and fast colt if you want to be in front of him early you won\'t be around at the finish. He probably won\'t back up too too much either so a competitor needs to be close to catch him.
The slower pace a route race produces will help both #6 Premier Star (can he rate) and #3 Albert Hall. The favored $4 Independence Hall impressed me in each of his races and I expect him to win. Lastly I noticed that Albert Park is bred by Godolphin and maybe that explains his start on all weather and then turf prior to dirt in an effort to protect the young horse.
So it was a pleasant surprise when I finished documenting my thoughts on the race that I saw the same heat had attracted the interest of Richiebee and in fact a similar conclusion via different considerations. As WAPO would say confirmation.
My play w/b #3 Albert Hall under the top two favorites in exactas, a tri undert the top 2 and a super in fourth under the top two with all in third.
I could see Premier Star moving forward a few here.
Sire and dam(all her wins at 2 turns) were both routers.
The 9th looks impossible.
Lucrezia first time long from the rail with time and Embossed turf to dirt/2nd Lasix from the outside are move up candidates I\'m using as well as the others mentioned.
In the 9th - It would stand to reason that trainer Asmussen has had enough time to get #3 Comical healthy and on track. The fact that he picks this spot instead of coming back in a G1 may suggest doubts.
For those able to divine the work tab we see a bullet best of 5 @ FG? and some workout times that look more like Arabians than thoroughbreds.
Or 3/1 c/b a gift if recovered and matured.
Mr. Bee, as I see you commented on the West Coast Swing for the links, I’m curious if you’ve sized up the field. I’m down on a few long ones for small $. Scwartzel, Cantlay and Chris “home run†Baker just off their 2 round patterns. I see Nick Taylor just completed the 0-3 X. My question is, can you help with the ground on the 3 different tracks they’re playing. Or any input on variant with the 3 would help. Good Luck!
Tampa Bay
2/8/20
Sam Davis
# Odds
1 3.2
2 7.4
3 SCR
4 0.6
5 64.6
6 5.2
7 50.6
8 15.0
I want to compliment Frank D on his pic 5 post @ Tampa yesterday. I hope he was able to use his nice winners to pay the pic 5 freight.
His winners by my reckoning:
Race #8
#3 - $16.80/1 winner
Race #10
#3 - $21.00/1 winner
Race #11
#2 - $5.80/1 winner
His misses
#9 a miss when a jump up winner beat Motu and Blame Debbie didn\'t run a step.
#12 Even spreading wide one of the slowest horses in the field came home on top
Tavasco,
Thank you. It was a tough sequence to not get paid on for sure! The 12 in the last leg was one of four that would have taken down the whole pool. 3,5,9 were paying 145k so there were no more than 3 live tickets on any horse. It was one hell of a shot for a $90 post scratches ticket......
The only in sequence bet I made was the 10th race exacta box of 1,3,8 and a press of March to the Arch over the 3,8. The 3,2,1 blanket finish was a BIG OUCHIE😱
Risen Star #1
Looked at this race a couple of times
Contenders.
#2) Silver State; Really like the pattern here trainer has a Thoropattern with a 33% new top and a 22% pair. Has his go to jock and finished 2 over this track last time out
Expecting a pair or a small move forward
#3) Ready to Roll; Coming back of three week rest after breaking his maiden by 7.5 over the mud surface at Oaklawn.
Pattern shows solid move forwards if he moves forward half of much as he has been makes him a solid contender here. Trainer has been solid last 90 days shows 30% new tops and winning at 29%. 20-1
#8)Enforceable, Casse and Frenchy won the local prep last time out can’t say this one hasn’t run will be his 8th race and should be in plenty of good shape.
Really like the breeding on this one making nice forwards moves has a 36% new top and 23% chance pair.
A pair is good enough for the win here.
#9)Mr.Monomy; Finished third last out in the local prep. Paired his last #. Jump up coming? Would need to jump up 4 pts in my opinion to win this with a sire that does not really show this development.
The play
#2 to win
Then ex box 2/3/8
GL
Risen Star Duex
Contenders
#5) Liams Lucky; had a solid pattern then tried a route and regressed big time.
Tough read on him. Trainer doesn’t do well in stakes sharp work last out of he pairs can definitely win it 9/2
#8) Anneaj d’Or; Shipping in were he finished second to a Baffert. Training well and blinkers get added. All trainer signs point to this as a positive
One of the few to have run in a graded stakes and is the class of the race.
#12) N.Y. Traffic this damn horse just kept pulling at me. Is the fastest horse in the race. Trainer is 33% pair with second time runners after trainer change was at the Gulf for his last race and looked impressive.
If he pairs here can win and expecting a good effort second time routing.
#8 to win
8/12 box ex.
GL
I also like Silver Slate, agree he is the horse to beat, but I also like #5 Moon over Miami- fastest horse who had a horrible trip in his last at GP, broke a step slow, and then was was carried out almost to the parking lot on the first turn, TG has 5W/4W, but also mentions 6W and 7W in the comments. After his fast AQ number in Dec a bounce could have been expected, so if he can work a decent trip here, and get close to his top then everyone else would need to improve to win. (I know alot of if\'s, but he is 10-1 on the ML).
People who have seen Enforceable in the flesh seem to be impressed and think he\'ll like the 9f. I would not be surprised to see him take more money than the 7/2 morning line suggests.
Moon Over Miami is a puzzle for me. While he\'s a price, clearly had no chance with that trip in his last at GP, and has the fast number, my impression is that a lot of 2yo\'s who ran fast numbers at Aqueduct on 12/7 are not running back to them (Ajaweed and Blame Debbie last weekend being the latest examples). As you say, maybe bounces are to be expected. His tendency to get wide trips is problematic in a field of this size, but I like Junior Alvarado getting back on.
Moon over Miami is definitely intriguing. Big 2yo number and Mott seems to be more of a player in the 3yo division the last couple of years.
I do find Scabbard a little interesting. If not for the post, I would move him way up. 4th in BC Juv. Comes back as the favorite against several of these and gets blocked.
Enforceable has a run a lot but this may not be the race to beat him.
Silver State fits what I like. Solid 2yo. Moved forward first out. Ready for another move forward.
Farmington Road. Pletcher/Castellano. Probably way down the depth chart for Pletcher but the horse has solid breeding and a move forward would not surprise me one bit. Don\'t like the post but he will be long
FG
2/15/20
Risen Star Div. 1
# Odds
1 10.0
2 3.2
3 46.8
4 52.0
5 19.3
6 37.6
7 4.7
8 3.1
9 6.1
10 8.8
11 7.1
FG
2/15/20
Risen Star Div. 2
# Odds
1 11.7
2 SCR
3 31.5
4 46.2
5 5.6
6 32.0
7 11.2
8 0.9
9 16.7
10 18.0
11 5.4
12 10.8
Not a bad effort from Farmington Road. Wide, wide, and wider versus an inside speed bias. May get the best figure in the race.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Was it a golden rail for both Risen Stars as some claim? They say most of the time claims of track bias is exaggerated but if that’s the real thing yesterday it’s a pity track superintendents at Fair Grounds failed to create a playing field that can live up to their name on a big day like this.
Contenders With a 40% chance of rain
#1) Wells Bayou; Paired his last out while trying two turns for the first time.
20% new top with Cox winning at Oaklawn at a 25% rate.
#2) Silver Prospector; Finished 4th last out over the same surface with a 60 day layoff and paired his #. Could be sitting on a move forward with a 30% chance of doing so. Like the breeding on this one.
#3) Shoplifted; Finished 3 last out while regressing just a tad. Has the 2nd fastest # routing Which way does he go from here? Has a new jock getting 8-1 to find out.
#4) Gold Street; Is this Exaggerator 2.0? If he pairs love this pattern if it’s wet I highly doubt you get 6-1. Hard to ignore at 6-1
#9) Answer In; Second of the Cox entries and the favorite @3-1 with Catellano flying in to ride him. Paired his last two and was in a bit of trouble his last out. Getting 3-1 others faster with better odds..
Tough race
At 8-1 going with the #1 if it’s wet will go with the #4
Then Box ex 1,4,9
I actually like the Lukas horse to Possibly get a piece underneath
Tri 1/4,9/4,5,9 unless it’s wet then 4/1,9/1,5,9
GL
No real opinion here.
Lukas horse packed it in both times going a mile or more,but has the three
consecutive slower pairs that I like to take a flyer on for a new top this time of year.
More interested in the Razorback with Bankit 10-1 ML.
Pairing up the comeback race puts him right there.
New horse as a 4yo?
I\'ve only done post mortems on the dirt stakes, but I don\'t see much evidence of a gold rail. Admittedly, the winners of both divisions of the Risen Star took the shortest way around, but saving ground will always be an advantage. The winners of the Mineshaft and Rachel Alexandra were both wide around at least one turn, and there were other stakes horses who seem to have run well relative to their tops with an outside trip. Jbelfior already pointed out Farmington Road in the first division of the Risen Star, and Major Fed also ran well in the second division.
Just anecdotally, the turf may be a different story. I have heard that the Fair Grounds is in the habit of keeping the rails out most days, and then taking them down on big days. That would seem likely to make the inside better on big days.
This is a little more subjective than Johnnym but a Florida perspective none the less.
Some Of My thoughts
#1 Wells Bayou
IMO, the danger with need to lead types is of course if they don\'t. This one dropped like a stone as in his second race. He may not be the quickest today and will be pressed hard in any case. That\'s a recipe for a fail in my book. You may argue he bounced. I\'ll Pass.
#2 Silver Prospector
I respect his win in the KY Jockey Club. His Smarty Jones is forgivable. The winner was much the best. The mud probably didn\'t help. Another I will move up if the track is dry.
#3 Shoplifted
A bargain @ anywhere near 8/1 m/l. Beat Answer In albeit hardly and is twice the price or more. The colt looks to be a good mover Clearly a use in the minor spots for me.
#4 Gold Street
Trainer Assmussen sure has a lot of horses in training. Absolutely no critism an apparent overachiever and @ 6/1 m/l. He appears at best a medium-sized colt but he sure dominated the Smarty Jones. My favorite.
#5 American Butterfly
Too many starts with too few results for me. Lukas doesn\'t baby them so generally what you see is what you get. I\'ll take a pass.
#6 Chase Tracker
Tap & JV. In from NY via PBD in Fl. Somethings up. They\'ve got some kind of talent here even if they don\'t know what yet. M/L 7/2 mostly a function of reputations. I like that the colt is tractable and has acceleration. It looks to have an upside. Unfortunately not under the radar.
#7 Villainous
Overlooked at the windows in his first race even though trainer Englehart is 19%+ Ist out. Then a complete reversal in form @ OP.A gutsy win in the mud. Hard to know whether he lugged per chart or was ridden to block to 2nd place horse. I\'d trust the TG sheet here and I\'m not looking at it. I like the horses apparent grit but in to deep here, But I think his front running style and a dry track moves him up.
#8 Taishan
I\'m guessing that trainer Baltas either doesn\'t know what he has with this one or the interesting ownership isn\'t concerned about cost. After watching his last two replayed I see no reason to be in this race much less bet on #8. M/L 5/1 means oddsmaker must be enamored with W/o\'s. I will admit this one w/o\'s are noticeable faster than previous tries. I like this colt @ 15/1
#9 Answer In
The Southwest Mile @ Remington and it $400k purse has become an event. Especially in this zip code. The horse imho was disadvantaged a bit by being in close and on the rail for the late stretch in his last. It could just as well have been the winner. What\'s noteworthy is St. Javier got to the rail from the #9 gate on that day. The same challenge today.
Bottom Line For me
If dry 2 or 4 on top and in ebx\'\'s
As a vertical player, I fancy 3,6,& 7 in the under positions.
I think a good score is possible via exacta and/or tri
If wet I won\'t use # 2 in the winning spot.
GL I’m on him as well
Looked like he changed leads there for a couple of strides
Oaklawn
2/17/20
Southwest
# Odds
1 7.1
2 4.3
3 11.0
4 5.4
5 15.6
6 6.9
7 30.1
8 15.7
9 1.4
I see DRF is now building this functionality into its online PP products:
https://promos.drf.com/projectedodds?utm_source=email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=projectedoddsecom&utm_content=projectedodds
Will NYRA Bets and other ADWs follow suit?
Great card today the Gulf with weather to match.
Today we tackle the FOY going 1 1/16 with allowance weights
Contenders
5) Dennis Moment:has there ever been a more hyped horse with only 2 wins of 4 starts with a TG pattern to match?
He has a back #1 the speed is there but what is he going to do coming of the lay-off? Trainer stakes record isn’t great winning 10%. Last 90 days he has been running 33% new tops and 20% pairs.Has a new jock today as well.
Favorite but when does the price become playable? Think his odds will go up 3-1
6) As seen on TV:is the fastest horse in the race with a zero last out a 4 pt jump forward. Thoropattern shows good chance pair or new top. First time going two turns but like the breeding on him to handle this.
10)Shotski: Johnny V does really well in this race with a blame colt shipping in. Trainer hires at 19% shipping and 13% stakes. Has run a 3.3 previously then went back a couple on a very heavy Track. Blames can run and improve co high weight
11) Ete Indien: Came in second behind the current derby favorite on this track and ran a new top going two turns on the dirt for the first time. Like the 7F work
28% new top and 25% pair draw was not desirable
12) Chance It: Winner last out beating Asseenontv. Trainer may scratch with a post that does not have a good winning record at this distance.
Ran a new top last out and has been lighting it up in his works.
Likes the track with 4 wins.
The play
Going to watch the odds on DM. If everyone is trying to beat him may be the opposite guy.
Current thought is the 6 to win
With a box EX 6/11
Lots of speed in this race and like the Chad horse to close at 15-1 will
tri
6,11/5,6,10,11,12/7
6,11/7/5,6,10,11,12
GL
> Lots of speed in this race and like the Chad horse
> to close at 15-1
You ain\'t the only one. Though 15-1 may not happen.
Put this in the category of I have no info soooo.
For example sake let\'s assume Dennis Moment broke clean in the BC Juvy wired the field and won 2YO Champ. Why would tomorrow in the FOY be any different than say Good Magic a few years back? Raced 3 wide in 3rd the whole trip and came in 3rd. Came back and won\'t the Blue Grass a more prestigious race for Breedinf. So did Brodys Cause owned and trained by the same connections.
I dont expect Dennis to win. If BianCobra can get a repeat of that last All Business effort he could he gone. Lots of lead changes and drifting in the prior Allowance. Chance It wont let him get too far away. No mistakes allowed....
Never thought I\'d see the day. Not sure about that 10mtp adjustment though..
What am I missing?
\"We kick ass all the way up until 5 MTP.\"
Well, so what? I don\'t care what the odds are at 5 MTP.
What I care about is my bet goes into the gate at 9-2, comes out of the gate at 7-2 and walks into the winner\'s circle at 6-5.
Which happened to me. An extreme example but illustrative.
Hence my point.
If they analyzed 20K races to come up with their algo, they should\'ve seen that the DD Will Pays are the best predictor of final odds (as they in fact stated they found themselves).
So why are they messing around with 10mtp to 5mtp odds which ultimately end up converging on the more accurate Will Pay odds come post time?
Gulfstream
2/29/20
Fountain of Youth
# Odds
1 19.1
2 SCR
3 106.4
4 116.5
5 1.7
6 3.2
7 6.6
8 39.3
9 26.4
10 12.2
11 2.7
12 SCR
DM is a fraud
The winner is the real deal had my doubts on that pp
Good meeting the fellas today
Since the Fountain of Youth was the DRF race of the day, I looked to see how the early-win-money adjustments performed. The only significant adjustments were for Dennis\' Moment and Ete Indian. In each case, the adjustment moved in the correct direction, but overshot the mark.
I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method seriously for NYRA. DRF is obviously casting a wider net, and I wonder if the method is less accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early win betting to refine the DD projections is more important there.
I see from Twitter that they are not doing this for CDI tracks, presumably because they don\'t have access to the tote data.
An aside: I looked at the Stronach Five this week and the payoff seemed light (not substantially better than the parlay). Do I have that right and, if so, does that occur often on carryover days? Thanks.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method
> seriously for NYRA. DRF is obviously casting a
> wider net, and I wonder if the method is less
> accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early
> win betting to refine the DD projections is more
> important there.
I\'ve probably done at least 20K races myself over the years. Haven\'t noticed much of a difference in accuracy between bigger tracks vs. smaller tracks, or between bigger pool vs. smaller pools. The efficiency of the pools seems to hold up just about the same everywhere.
> An aside: I looked at the Stronach Five this week
> and the payoff seemed light (not substantially
> better than the parlay). Do I have that right
> and, if so, does that occur often on carryover
> days? Thanks.
The payoff did indeed come back light, not all that unusual except for the fact that it was a carryover day, which does make it less likely. In looking at the results, I see the 2,5,7 are all listed as winners of the fourth leg (3rd race at SA). Looks to me like there were two late scratches that got put on the winning favorite, which turned the Pk 5 into a semi defacto Pk 4, hence the lower payout.
Thanks. Great info as always.
The first of three preps this weekend
Lots of horses jumping up from the Maiden ranks with the Toddster having 3 in here
Contenders
2) Spa City;for the newest jock agent horse has shown a awful lot of development and don’t know if he can keep moving forward improving 7 pts last out.
Local rider on him winning at 25% on his home track.
4) Chance it; Ran a 0 then rattled of three 4s then moved paired his top of a small layoff. Saffie does well at Tampa and the horse has been training like a beast
May be sitting on a new top?
7) Sole Volante; Big winner last out over the local surface has some Derby pts but not enough to get in yet. Very solid pattern and should have pace to close into.
I really like this horse a lot moving forward but a second place finish and a number pair is just fine with one more prep to go.
9) Unrighteous; Still a maiden but a fast one at that jumping up 12 pts last out and getting blinkers. Todd wins at 23% with first time blinkers finished second last out to the 2 horse. 20-1
The play
4 to win
4/9 ex box
4/9/2,4 tri
4/2,4/9 tri
GL
Don’t understand this cut back to a one turn mile but it’s worth 50 pts to the winner
Contenders
3) War Stopper; Got blinkers last out went to the lead and made a huge 7 pt jump to break his maiden. Jumps straight into a points race
Getting 5lbs
6) Mischevious Alex; Was trying two turns cut back to one turn and ran a pair of 1.
Ships to the Big A were Servis wins at over 20%
The play.
6 to win
3,6 ex box
GL
I bet Alex in his last and he paid good. Seemed logical at the distance and cycling back and freshened. This time around I\'m leary. There was a Casse maiden breaker who took a ton of money and the Jerkins 2YO who won the Saratoga Special took a ton of money. Nobody fired and Alex got the Irad pace rail ride. The 1 says he wins. It was earned in optimal circumstances. I\'m not suggesting throwing him out. I\'m just leary. Servis even said he thought they would keep him sprinting. Sooooo
San Felipe Stakes
On paper lots of front runners in here
Contenders
2) Honor AP; Was suppose to come back in the 7f SN Vincent but had a issue.
Now comes in of a 5 month layoff were his trainer wins at 15%.
Has a couple of long works under his belt
May need the race
4) Authentic; First of two Baffert’s, I was surprised when I saw his #s thought they would be faster. Won for fun last out and got a bit goofy down the lane.
Should move forward here but 6-5 When others are just as fast
5) Thousand Words; The other Baffert who is bred to go longer 3-3 at Santa Anita and 2-2 at the distance. # wise has run a 3 should be just of the pace for a race with lots of Pace.
6) Storm the Court; Came of the bench to run a nice come back race and his #s show it solid pattern here.
Bullet last drill and gets Rosario who wins at 28% with Eurton.
The Play
#6 to win
GL
I think the race that Honor AP missed was the Sham (in early January), not the San Vicente (in early February). The work pattern confirms that. I agree with you that he may need one, but if they bet it that way, I\'ll probably go with him.
Tampa Bay Derby
# Odds
1 15.6
2 7.2
3 22.0
4 2.3
5 6.0
6 93.5
7 1.7
8 28.0
9 12.3
10 44.1
11 49.6
12 105.7
Gotham
# Odds
1 73.1
2 36.5
3 10.5
4 3.5
5 11.7
6 1.8
7 12.6
8 7.5
9 40.2
10 4.5
11 43.8
San Felipe
# Odds
1 84.6
2 3.4
3 28.3
4 1.2
5 2.9
6 3.8
7 127.7
Yesterday in review.
The Tampa race continued to show how much chaos there isbout there. Not specifically because a $100 horse won. But it was the 2nd time a horse who was on Turf switched surfaces and won a Derby Prep Stakes in dirt. This horses form didn\'t look that bad. Usually a $100 winner is a form reversal. Chance It (who I bet) was exposed. The Runnerup is solid. He ran giant in Sam Davis amd was sitting on a little bounce to me.
Mischievous Alex and Authenticity are two more speed horses in a Derby looking loaded with speed
Moving Forward
TB Derby
As I mentioned Sol is sitting perfect for a peak Derby effort
Especially with the extra distance has the points no pressure. Derby future 25-1
If I handicap the TB Derby today I still would not of had the winner and not TC nominated for long. Don’t know what to make of the winner.
Wonder what Soffie was thinking after the race? I should of stayed home?
Gotham. No one out of that race has my interest.
Winner ran to form no way do I wager on him around two turns on Derby day.
San Vicente
Authentic ran to how I thought he would strong performance.
Derby future on him is a bargain at 5-1.
Honor AP coming of the layoff ran a very good race as well, got the second place pts and doesn’t need to win next out to make it in.
Storm the court want to see his numbers but looks a step below the top two.
Next week Oaklawn
Gotham winner could be like a Vyjack from a few years ago. Not a real router. Has the points. The Owners are Gamblers and will go to the Derby and have a good time. I\'m not surprised Alex won I just wasnt gonna take a short price because I had no idea what he was running g against. (See Tampa result) Turns out it was nothing.
Chance It and Saffie F\'d up. He likes GP. Ended up 4 wide anyway. Probably ran a figure similar to Runnerup. He would have won NOT FOY but would have been 2nd and had that extra week for Fla Derby.
The problem with Sol is his running style. That hasn’t worked in the derby since like Animal Kingdom or at least around then. Since the change to points the winner always seems to come from stalking the pace or right off it. Honor AP might be interesting moving forward. Maybe the TAP that ran third in Tampa yesterday? If he can move forward off an “ok†effort he seems to have the right style to factor.
Who knew the only angle that would matter this year is turf to dirt? Long way to go yet
Agree regarding the running style
Looking forward
Like Silver mentioned may be lots of pace this year.
Ticket bldg wise keying Sol for 2 or 3 maybe a winning ticket.
Still a ways to go
GL
King Guillermo will make his next start in the 146th Kentucky Derby after winning his way into the May 2 race with a remarkable 4 3/4-length upset of the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday
Per DRF
One race prior to the derby at least you know he will be fresh
Sole, Ete and this one makes 3. Stuctor may yet throw his hat in the ring too. Hell, Alex has a turf start.
Honor AP will get the better TG number I think. Very nice off the layoff.
Street Sense, Mine That Bird...
Orb/Golden Soul closer/closer exacta.
Pros have been doing this since Secretariat was a 2yo , and before that
Nice of them to join in 100 years later
Back to the races
Handicapping for a Sloppy Track
The contenders
1 Nadal; Trainer Winning at 38% at Oaklawn HMMMMMM????
First time around two turns has Blame as a Sire distance should not matter here has run a Pair of 3s BL Off.
3 Basin: Has a win over a sloppy track with a 2 coming in of the layoff first time around two turns as well
4 Silver Prospector; The iron horse of the group being his 9 start and a win over the track. Like the Pattern here jumped up 4 pts last out does not need the win here just a solid showing. Does have a 41% chance new top has the go to Jock
5 No Parole; Tricky read here ran a 1 first out then went two turns last out won for fun but was slow with a 8. Has a win over the slop high weight.
6) Three Technique: Improved his top by 4pts last out routing for the first time in the slop.. Has a 34% new top Goes from Ortiz to Saez
8) American Theorem: Out of the triple crown winning sire.
Coming in of the layoff word is he is training really well numbers wise he is a step slower than the others Finished second last out to Eight Rings who ran a clunker the other day
Small but competitive field
Expecting a bit of Speed
The Play
#6 to win
EX Box
1,6
GL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd1ciPnTGKg
No Parole has a very interesting sheet to me. The $ sign from the first race, means that the connections knew they had a very fast horse and that he was going to run well that day; and he did! Very fast number, and his next 2 were not as fast, but the (h) symbol could mean that he just coasted through the stretch in both of those races. He is the fastest horse so far and is going to be a decent price.
The track may be wet. They\'re taking blinkers off Nadal I\'m sure to slow him down. He is quick and has the inside post. Not hard to figure this one out here. Comes back in 4 weeks, already running fast so how much faster? Particularly after a tough race?
Basin likes the slop and probably needs one. Doesnt mean they dont send him however.
Silver Prospector is legit and Three Technique is the Sleeper. Take the former, dont toss the latter
Loved the link.
The 5/2 morning line on Nadal seems high to me, but we\'ll see. Since he hasn\'t run that fast and needs to answer the 2-turn question, I\'ll have to go against him as the favorite.
On Three Technique, I think Irad was committed to ride a Baffert (maybe Eight Rings) who ultimately was not sent to the race when it failed to split. Eight Rings hasn\'t run since the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I have read that Jose Ortiz might have picked up the mount on Three Technique, but was still on the sidelines when Saez was given the call. Depending on the odds, I\'m considering Three Technique and Basin.
Rebel
# Odds
1 1.2
2 73.7
3 4.4
4 4.9
5 8.7
6 4.4
7 57.0
8 10.8
Sure was a impressive performance..
Well, then the filly winner was off the charts, being a half a second faster. The Essex went almost a full second faster.
Time faster yes..
Filly was not pressed at all,Nadal was pressed never folded.
Speed held yesterday as well
Nadal\'s Beyer is apparently 96. Timeform US is 120, which is within a point of the winners of both the Essex and the Azeri. Charlatan was faster at Santa Anita. Craig Milkowski said on Twitter that making figs for Oaklawn was not particularly difficult
I haven’t looked yet, but the issue will be, whatever you give Nadal you have to give the second horse.
Seems like an example of how pace can affect figures. If you give Nadal a pair, then the two horses that get new tops are the two that dropped back early.
Morning TG world
Today we have the Louisiana Derby now run at 1 3/16
Nice large field to boost at equal weights..
Contenders
3) Wells Bayou: Jumped up 4 pts last race and almost wired the field got a bit lazy on the lead got passed by the winner but did re engage after he was passed.
Has the breeding to handle the distance has Geroux back on him. 42% run a new top with a trainer who wins at 27% at the FG and with Geroux. Speed of the race
Will we get 8-1
10) Enforceable: Had a nice pattern then had the dreaded 2 pt regress.. How do you read this pattern? Trainers stats show he has a 31% chance to X and a 25% to run off. Lots of closer’s in this race.. How wide coming home?
My play..
I’m all in on the 3 he will have the lead let’s see how far he can take them.
Not playing the 10 going with a X with him.
3 to win
Protect in ex
1,2,8,9,13,14/3
Tri
3/1,2,8,9,13,14/1,2,8,9,13,14
Tri
3/1,2,8,9,13,14/4,6,7
GL to all
P.S
In the Oaks gonna try and beat the 6 Finite with the 3&4
DD 3,4/3
I also like the three here too. Hoping the big purses keep these 3 yo fields large since they are not as important as preps any more. Will be interesting to see how much this improves the field for the Ky Derby come September as one result in February will probably not get you enough points to get into the derby
Louisiana Derby
# Odds
1 8.5
2 15.6
3 3.6
4 11.5
5 70.4
6 29.6
7 36.3
8 8.7
9 18.1
10 3.3
11 24.2
12 22.1
13 6.1
14 12.7
On the virtual derby trail this week the Curlin Fl Derby
Hearing the 4&6 will scratch
All at equal weight
Contenders
7)Tiz the Law; Ran a new top last out with a 3 pt jump up.
Horse missed some training time but word is he is training well. Trainer shows a 34% chance new top and 20% pair.. Lots of speed in the race
9) Independence Hall: Fastest horse in the race with a -2as a two year old.
Has X is last 2 out.. Trainer shows 5% new top and a 16% chance for a pair.
Wonder if he gets the distance?
12) Ete Indien: Got beat by the 7 two races back then ran a commanding win in the FOY breaking from the outside..Has paired his last two may be sitting on another move forward. Don’t like the post and lots of speed inside him may be wide..
The play
Did not care for Franco’s ride last out on Tiz. If Franco doesn’t get in his way Tiz should be sitting perfect behind the speed turning for home.
7 win
Ex box 7/12
Tri
7/12/3,5,9,10
Good luck today to all us TGenerates hopefully we get back on the Derby trail soon.
John
I like ete indien\'s line. even with the outside post, his speed is enough to get position, and if he can stalk, rather than set the pace I like him the best.
Having said that Independence Hall could be moving back towards his top, even though they were X\'s, his last 2 races are pointing in the right direction. It should take a 2 year old some significant time to recover from what is about the fastest 2 year old number I have seen. He doesn\'t need to get all the way there, but close to his top may be enough.
Tiz the Law looks great also, but I have this disease where I try to beat the favorite..., to justify it I will point out his last was a 4 point new top (just big enough for concern), and he seems to have trouble in each race (tu notation for every race). Governeur Morris also looks like he could jump up today after running the same number in his 3 yo debut as his 2 yo top, Pletcher trained, has a 2nd in a grade 1.
Anyway, sadly for me today is probably the last day of betting for a while for all of us. Good luck to all and stay inside.
Going to try and knock TTL out of the exacta. My key will be Gov M who looks like he is sitting on a strong forward moving pattern. Pletcher a master at getting these type of horses ready to throw big figs in FL this time of year, and this guy may end up 3rd choice despite the hype. Keying GM on top of IH and EI in exacta and tris.
Good luck!
I think they are all going for broke plenty of time to recover from whatever effort they give today
Playing #3 Disc Jockey(20-1 ML) to move forward off the slower pairs stretching out.
Guess I should have checked the scratches.
3,4,6,11 out
With all the scratches I’m changing the play gents
Going with Ete Indien..
Same EX Box Franco worries me
TRI
12/7/3,5,9,10
12/3,5,9,10/7
GL
Anyone give As Seen on TV any chance? His figure two back is competitive and he was bet in the FOY. Nobody was catching Ete Indien that day. Seems worth a flyer.
Yes, I\'m using him because he broke outwards terribly in the FOY and jock had to take a hold, and now drops to the rail. Second race around 2 turns should improve.
I\'m playing him with Gov Morris - exacta box
Gulfstream Park
3/28/20
Florida Derby
# Odds
1 16.7
2 91.1
3 SCR
4 SCR
5 4.9
6 SCR
7 1.3
8 149.9
9 4.2
10 29.1
11 SCR
12 2.3
13 183.2
Oaklawn Stakes
# Odds
1 2.6
2 65.7
3 43.5
4 2.8
5 27.3
6 21.3
7 25.2
8 3.9
9 12.8
10 70.3
11 34.8
12 5.3
13 26.1