It\'s interesting how different Spun to Run looks on TG versus Beyer. The Beyer narrative is that he jumped way up in the pre-BC race at Parx, replicated that effort in the BC Dirt Mile, and has the fastest fig going into the Cigar Mile. On TG (as can be seen in the ROTW sheets for the BC), his last two figs are identical, but represent only a one point improvement from his 5th place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby, and leave him far from the fastest going into the Cigar.
I\'m not yet convinced the Cigar is a two-horse race.
I\'d like help answering some questions first.
1, Generally speaking at the end of a colt\'s 3rd year, does one lean to the lightly raced competitor (Maximum Security) or the war horse (Spun To Run) seemingly in top form and sound as can be? What are the jump up and off race expectations?
2. Race dynamics, riders, trainers, running styles? Maximum Security has a history of trouble with other horses. Fun To Run draws outside of his rival. I rarely see two front runners go head to head for 6F let alone a mile and produce an exacta.
3. The other entries are not all tomato cans. Whitmore @ 1 Mile, is he the key to the Ex & Tri?
4. Dutch the Chadsters and maybe get 7/1?
5. Is there a bloodline argument?
Whitmore wearing his two brand new bar shoes tomorrow. Draws the rail where breaking slowly is not an option and closing sprinters usually do not benefit from the addition furlong.
Based on how I\'m going lately, I would definitely key him if I were you.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I think the Chad runners look interesting in this race. Of these, I prefer Network Effect.
He ran some fast TG numbers as a 2 year old, and his last race at Aqueduct he posted a small incremental top in his first start as a 3 year old.
I think he may have another forward move in him yet, and even a pair of his last TG # has him as fast as the M/L favourites at the assigned weights.
Good Luck.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Whitmore wearing his two brand new bar shoes
> tomorrow. Draws the rail where breaking slowly is
> not an option and closing sprinters usually do not
> benefit from the addition furlong.
>
> Based on how I\'m going lately, I would definitely
> key him if I were you.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Point made! I cannot even begin to imagine Whitmore getting out of the gate with the pacesetters. I\'ve read considerable ink that agrees with your point that a late-running sprinter generally isn\'t helped by an additional quarter mile.
I appreciate your levity, thanks for ringing in.
On a side note to the many audiophiles and film aficionados on the board did you notice it was Robbie Robertson musical director on \"The Irishman\"
Bal Harbors last three races show an 0-2-X pattern? is he is ready to repeat his top ?