I don\'t know when/if it would ever happen, but I hope the BC comes back to NY someday. So funny, I\'m watching Aqueduct Friday and Saturday, and the track condition is perfect, glib and fast, but bias free, and the turf looks beautiful and deep like a real grass course should look, and I\'m thinking, here we all are seeing this BC fiasco at SA where even the talking heads on TVG recognize both courses aren\'t legit--seemingly difficult to close on either surface. The main has just been dead all meet, tiring as hell, not necessarily speed favoring, just tiring--and I\'m not sure how good the inside was either, which is completely absurd. The grass course had pristine inside paths, which if you didn\'t secure, you had a huge disadvantage--I mean, what kind of nonsense is that? And one fallacy to which many of us fell prey was the idea that it was better to have shipped in and worked over the track; I actually think it was an advantage not to have run or worked much over the surface in the days prior to the BC, but I didn\'t figure that out until late in the game.
On a positive note, I thought (completely anecdotal observation) that the drug testing must have been enhanced or perhaps actually in place because a lot of horses I know well from \"super\" trainers did not perform as you might have expected them to--not going to name any names, but I could tell the usual \"enhancement\" was just not there. The racing seemed on the level in that sense for what that\'s worth.
Random notes: The TG analysis paid for itself many times over with their call in the Juvenile race on Friday--well done there. If you saw any horses who closed well and galloped out well on dirt, follow them next time. I was most most impressed by Mitole and Bricks and Mortor, and most disappointed by Pure Sensation-I always ask why doesn\'t Paco get more rides in big races? And there you go--how he fails to get out with that horse is mind boggling. I though Smith had a terrible day--as bad as a jockey could ride; very unusual for him. How in heck does Omaha Beach come out of a sprint race and not show any speed??? And Midnight Bisou??? I mean, is he watching any prior races on that card? She has some speed and could have been sent--unreal. Happy for Joe Bravo after all these years winning a BC race. No doubt, Vino Rosso\'s summer time trip to SA paid off in spades experience-wise for Pletcher\'s first classic.
Larry Collmus Tweeted on Friday he was off to SA to call races, yet I heard Frank M. What was up with that? Was he calling races in a private podcast???
That\'s enough.
Nice weather in NY today. Aqueduct should be good!
Cheers.
Larry Collmus called the races on NBC, just like it was for years where you would hear Durkin on NBC but the usual track announcer through the track feed.
OK, I was listening to the track feed. Yeah that makes sense.
I\'m not sure your comments about biases are fair. The talking heads need to talk about something, but Blue Prize closed from next to last to win the Distaff and several closers hit the board in dirt races. I think a lot of times a quirky course will seem to be speed-biased just because the horses who are handling the surface naturally wind up forwardly placed. The inside bias on the turf seemed to fade (see Uni) as the turf got chewed up over the course of the two days after the rails had been out most of the meet. Was Santa Anita wrong to protect the course in anticipation of the Breeders Cup?
As for New York, I\'d like to see the Breeders Cup back there because the exotics takeout is lower and one-turn mile races are much fairer than those at two turns when the fields are large. The weather is, however, usually cold and sometimes wet (see the Monmouth experience) and New York courses are not immune to biases (see Track Trends on the NYRA website).
I got into a debate about a definition of a closer.
Educate me.
A horse that makes his move down the backside from last to get into contention is that considered a closer?
I believe I only saw 2 dirt horse make any kind of closing move in the stretch.
If you weren’t in the top 2/3 going into the stretch you were done.
A closer to me makes his move the last half of the race especially the stretch no?
I don\'t want to ignore your post, but I also don\'t want to be adversarial. I don\'t think there is a right answer to your question. The term \"closer\" can mean different things to different people. I don\'t make or use pace figures, but I have the impression that they separate early from late speed based on position at a \"pace call.\" My educated guess is that the pace call is 2 furlongs into a sprint and 4 furlongs into a route.
No worries just a discussion
First off,thanks to Jerry for another well done seminar. I combined his approach
of attacking the vulnerable favorites along with my own mantra of its a Chad,Chad
world on the grass and we are all just living in it to have a very good breeders cup. I really didnt buy in to betting only the locals on the dirt, which for the most part worked out but likely cost me a bonanza in the juvy race. The filly and mare turf and sprint were totally nailed by the seminar for sure. Hope everyone
had some fun and made some $. Taking a handicap break, and might buy in to some
weanlings next week. have a nice Fall all.
Track Trends on the NYRA website are written by Andy Serling, who every time his pick loses complains he wasnt on the golden rail, I would take his track trends with a a grain of salt.
philywheel
Typical three-act story arc here:
People obsessively try to figure out who the best horses are.
Then the races are run.
Then people say that because of the way the racetrack was playing, being the best horse did not matter.
It is a winning formula for comedy and has been for decades.
Would you say the best horse won the Juvenile?
Dana
I attended the BC in NY. Only times I have gone.
2001 was so cold and windy literally no one sat outside.
Standing all day in a cramped grandstand, Went looking for a cup of coffee.
They were not serving coffee that day.
Hard to believe but true.
Biggest memory was Johannesburg\'s in juvy.
All you could hear were the rowdy Irishmen for the rest of the day.
Must have been the Guiness because the temps did not seem to bother them.
Would love to see NY again but have little faith management could pull it off.
I think the below, taken from Timeform US blog, is the best summation of the different running styles. Most horses, in my opinion, fall between the Speed/ Tracker/ Midpack categories. On dirt at least. Turf is a different story. Please forgive me for referencing a different product. and if it’s looked down upon, I’m happy to remove the post.
Leader (A one-dimensional front-running horse)
Speed (A horse who races on or near the early lead)
Tracker (Generally a stalking type of horse, or one with a very tractable running style)
Midpack (A horse who generally races in the middle of the pack)
Closer (A stretch-running horse who comes from the back of the pack)
Plodder (A one-dimensional horse who languishes at the back of the pack)
Short answer is yes. Longer answer requires us to define \"best.\"