On a scale of 1 to 10, how reliable are the Thorograph figs for the European turf runners (those coming for the Breeders Cup)? I\'ve heard they\'re very reliable and I\'ve heard the opposite. Hoping for some serious discussion. Thank you!!!
Look thru the archives
johnnym Wrote:
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> Look thru the archives
I\'ve done a tremendous amount of research for BC races in the archives. Been extremely useful. Just looking for some other\'s opinions about TG figs in European turf races.
He means look at how the Euro figures have held up in past BC races. Who told you they were not accurate? Send them to the Archives too.
The euro figures need to be looked at in the context of the way the races over there are run - generally slow early. You also need to account for the fact that many are receiving Lasix for the first time. I think it was mjellish who said he “upgrades†a euro, assuming the above scenario by 2 points (assuming the pattern is reasonable), which I have found to be pretty accurate. This is purely antidotal, not based on any type of statistical analysis of the archive, at least by me.
The issue with European races is always the variables that I would think go into the number making; the courses are all different, flat, uphill, undulations, right hand, left hand, straight, in addition to so many variables of course conditions from firm to heavy and a hundred things in between--couple that with most of the horses don\'t run together in race after race--the numbers are a little sketchy, but strangely still decent in my opinion--use them as an approximation, a ball park figure--you can also figure with lighter weights and Lasix added, they will generally run a bit faster than whatever number you see. You need to look at replays as well for the European races to get a better assessment. I find if they\'re coming, they\'re often pointing for firmer going and the good trainers are usually well meant. Still, with all apologies to the great European trainers, I\'d take a Chad Brown horse any day!