I’ve decided not to play my original intended Pick 5 singling Shancelot & Elate.
There isn’t enough risk/reward of it paying anything and HOPE is not a business plan!
It’s going to be a beautiful day with a large crowd that will end with the largest traffic jam in the history of the Spa. As 45,000 or so are exiting the track about a mile away 25,000 will be coming into town at SPAC for A Kiss farewell tour stop. For those that have never been, it will be a parking lot......
No live appearance for FD for the first time since 1973, I’m done with Travers Day.
The H. Allen Jerkens:
The reasons to take a shot against Shancelot have been covered.
I don’t like Hog Creek, a one number horse who spots weight to others who have run as fast/faster than he.
Borracho, Nitrous, Mind Control & Rowayton
The Ballston Spa:
A pair of Chads (2,9) Indian Blessing & Starship Jubilee
The Personal Ensign:
I like Elate but if I can beat Shancelot? I can’t let Midnight Bisou knock me out of a pay day......
The Sword Dancer:
You can make a strong case for any of the 5 fast horses. Saddlers Joy just doesn’t win enough for me to be put on top. Big figs for suck up 2,3,4 finishes.
The Chads what else!!! Ya Primo & Annals of Time, The Channels, Cat & Maker.
The 150th Travers Stakes:
Jerry Brown sent me a text on Tuesday night saying, “I know who you will be betting in the Travers†Ok fill me in as I had not seen any data yet.
“Baffert he is fastest and it’s Baffert in NY and so will I†JB has clearly stated his opinion in the stakes run down.
The old Covello rule of never letting the fastest horse in the race beat you in a horizontal as well as Baffert’s record of running new tops shipping east make me include this one. Baffert, Chad & Navarro are enough to keep you up at night for sure!
I’m not crazy about Gusto picking up 8lbs from a very fast Haskell and not sure he wants 10F, BUT it’s BB in NY🧙â€â™,ï¸
I had no intention of including Highest Honors until seeing the workout reports.
Outstanding, it’s Chad ðŸ'° in NY and I believe Bikini’s is in the race to ensure a fast pace to set up his late run. The local boy does so want to win a Travers.
Tacitus is the fast, hard luck horse, I would normally run from this type at a short price. They seem to make their own or just find trouble? Now the Belmont was without a doubt the worst ride in Jose Ortiz’s career and the Jim Dandy was a stumble at the break followed by a big run on a dead rail.
If you have seen video of his works w/blinks? He looks like King F’in Kong.
The most likely winner IMHO.
I planned on including and still may include Owendale depending on how the main track is playing.Then again with 90 minutes between dirt races, we have seen tracks change before the big dance? He may have too much to do late and come running to get a piece, not crazy about a top spot here.
Tax simply has too much to do from the parking lot, Gargan already stated they will send as he has no other choice.
Code of Honor should sit a perfect trip or will JV do his usual, abandon the rail for the 4 path on the first turn? Too many extreme ground loss rides for me over the past few years and a very low Tommy for the distance says NO here.
I’m pretty sure I’ll stick with my top 3 in the Travers.
4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 = $384 for a buck
A 2nd ticket singling Elate will be $192
I like the verticals much more than the horizontal in the sequence.
I can also protect my investment shot to beat Shancelot with him on top in verticals in the first leg and come back in pick 4’s & 3’s.
Good luck to all and Happy Travers Day
48 degrees in the Spa as I type this on a crisp August morning.
It must be get away week coming up and a Top Cat appearance is eminent ðŸ¯
Great stuff Frank
I’m with ya gonna try and bet Navarro if it doesn’t work hello pick 4
Also I’m not leaving Golden Award of my ticket in the Ensign
Code of Honor best performance has been around 1 turn should this be a factor in my decision making.
He is the second fastest horse?
GL today
Have you thought about starting 1 race earlier & playing the Empire 6?
Here\'s what I\'ll be doing in the E6:
I\'m going to start the 1st 2 legs with the 2 heavy favorites and try not to get cute in there. Then I\'ll start spreading. In the 8th I\'ll be going 2 Chads (not the same as your 2 Chads. but we agree on 9). 9th -the 2 favorites & Asmussen because Julie\'s been training so well, then if I make it to the final 2 legs a ton of horses.
I\'m going 2/1/4,8,9/1,3,4/4,5,6,7,8,9/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9,12 Cost $97.20
People are avoiding the E6, thinking it won\'t pay anything because of the 1 ticket rule, but they pay 75% of the day\'s pool to the winners & it costs a lot less than playing the P5.
Frank
Why have you forsaken me. Sad state of affairs when Frank skips the Travers because of traffic? I would understand a boycott based upon the stare of the game but traffic. Traffic? For shame. All props go to Rocco and Uncle Bill. You guys rock and roll all night.
I’m on the single Navarro and Elate train. Best gambling race is the Travers and I’m going against the bosses and tossing Mr. EPO. Gusto is a slug, won’t get the lead and will fade away like Frank’s faith in Servis and Calling Paul.
Best regards. Weather is awesome! Don’t let Gene Simmons scare you away!
toppled Wrote:
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> People are avoiding the E6, thinking it won\'t pay
> anything because of the 1 ticket rule, but they
> pay 75% of the day\'s pool to the winners & it
> costs a lot less than playing the P5.
Pays 75% of the net pool. Effective takeout is 40% on the E6, 15% on the P5. Sounds like the E6 costs more.
BB,
Add in that the BOTS are in the E-6 for an estimated 25% of the pool and can cover Chaos cheaply. They are not in the late pick 5 pool and with a 5% rebate my actual take out is 10% in a sequence without the computer guys.....
That’s the best shot out there this day in Age for a non-whale.
Tom,
Traffic though an inconvenience had nothing to do with my decision.
The actions of NYRA’s security staff ended Travers Day for me last year.
Trust me being # 150 and 3 years short of attending 50 0f them was not an easy decision here.....
Frank, do me a favor. When you put your P5 ticket in, pick whatever you would have played in the 6th & look at how much it would have cost you @ 20 cents & what your P5 would have cost at 50 cents. Then see which provided a better profit (Since I hope you cash & can calculate it off your actual payoff).
Now I know last Sunday isn\'t a good example because there was a mandatory payoff, but the P6 (if you had the 1st leg) was a better play than the P5. I\'m biased because I hit it last Sunday, the 1st time I played it, mainly because I had 2 singles, which I have to have at a minimum to play the P6. My ticket was 2x3x1x7x1x5 and I got 210 combos for $42. It paid $10,547. The P5 which would have cost me $52.50 paid about $2,500. More money in, less money back. The 20 cent buy in enabled me to go ALL in 2 of the last 3 races & keep my costs down on what typically is a frivolous bet.
FrankD with the correct gamble here.
Good Luck the rest of the way my friend. No bets for me whatsoever on this card. Cheering for you rest of the way.
I didnt have the winnerGL Frank
In theory what you wrote sounds good, but it doesn\'t match the actual payoffs that show the P6 vs P5 is a lot closer than you\'re thinking. I still believe the P6 is the better play. Here are the payoffs each day since it began. Keep in mind that the buy in for the P6 (20 cents) is 60% cheaper than the P5 (50 cents) for 1 more race. The cheaper price gives you more opportunities to spread especially if you like fewer than 3 horses in the 1st leg of the P6. Based on your theory, shouldn\'t the P5 be paying more since it costs 2.5 more than the P6 and has a better takeout? The payoffs don\'t match your theory. For today\'s card, I would say many could have singled the 1st leg of the 6 and have more options to spread in later races. Any time the 1st leg can be had with a single, P6 is the way to go.
8/7 P5 $644 P6 $621
8/8 P5 $37,191 P6 $3,308 (5/6)
8/9 P5 $13,804 P6 $9,950
8/10 P5 $486 P6 $999
8/11 P5 $4,451 P6 $1,997
8/14 P5 $13,044 P6 $25,145
8/15 P5 $739 P6 $706
8/16 P5 $676 P6 $968
8/17 P5 $1,855 P6 $4,949
8/18 P5 $2,565 P6 $12,547 (mandatory payoff)
8/21 P5 $4,515 P6 $37,064
8/22 P5 $430 P6 $3,825
8/23 P5 $2,124 P6 $1,907
Navarro horses dont bounce, does he still keep his job. Kidding. Also the \"he can bounce and still win\" theory just took a hit.
I passed the race. Those who stayed with it congrats. Has any horse ever won the Hopeful and the Jerkins? Solid combo
How much is in the pool?
$1.45M
The difference in P4 and P5 prices is massive.
Geezus how many people singled Shancelot today??
Ask Toppled ?
Practical Joke won both races 2 and 3 years ago.
Yes he did. And the Champagne. A very rare Triple.
Toppled:
Closing day and mandatory payout day for the Empire. Your theory didn\'t hold up on this one. (Leg 1 a 3-5 single to just add on the front end of a p5 to increase the payout. Even 50 cents worth of the p6 let\'s say by simply adding the 3-5 and paying for an equal denomination wouldn\'t even get you to the p5 payout).
1, Dr. Devera\'s Way.
$.50 p5, 65,846.50
$.20 p6, 23,794.70.
I have the others also. This was the rule not the exception even on today\'s mandatory/carryover p6 sequence for the horses in the finale compared to the p5.
**Note**--I know you likely can\'t even play a 50 cent pick 6 but wanted to attempt to compare apples to apples here. Mathcapper can possibly equate this much faster and clearer than I as well as correct my mistakes in statistical analysis here. But I don\'t want to put more on his plate.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
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> Toppled:
>
> Closing day and mandatory payout day for the
> Empire. Your theory didn\'t hold up on this one.
> (Leg 1 a 3-5 single to just add on the front end
> of a p5 to increase the payout. Even 50 cents
> worth of the p6 let\'s say by simply adding the 3-5
> and paying for an equal denomination wouldn\'t even
> get you to the p5 payout).
>
> 1, Dr. Devera\'s Way.
> $.50 p5, 65,846.50
> $.20 p6, 23,794.70.
>
> I have the others also. This was the rule not the
> exception even on today\'s mandatory/carryover p6
> sequence for the horses in the finale compared to
> the p5.
>
> **Note**--I know you likely can\'t even play a 50
> cent pick 6 but wanted to attempt to compare
> apples to apples here. Mathcapper can possibly
> equate this much faster and clearer than I as well
> as correct my mistakes in statistical analysis
> here. But I don\'t want to put more on his plate.
No worries Richie - I track the payouts every day (it only takes me ~30s) so I\'ve got them readily available.
In today\'s sequence the Pick 5 came back quite generous - the $65,846.50 payout was over 3.6 times (+265%) the equivalent win parlay of $18,058.40.
The $23,794.70 Empire 6, on the other hand, came back surprising light for a mandatory payout day. Instead of paying on the order of 4 or 5 times the equivalent win parlay like it typically does, it \"only\" paid around twice the equivalent win parlay (+106%) of $11,557, which is closer to what it usually looks like on a non-mandatory day.
BTW, for anyone interested, I got word back yesterday from the boss of the boss of the guy I talked to at NYRA Bets on the subject of Empire 6 bet size as it relates to lone winning tickets.
As I suspected, if a player puts in a base ticket that\'s larger than the $.20 minimum, say a $1 caveman ticket like 3x1x5x3x4x4 and that player turns out to be the lone winner, he DOES NOT get the jackpot, it counts as 5 separate $.20 tickets.
So if you\'re playing any combinations that look to have the potential to possibly take down the pool, make SURE you only have a $.20 ticket on those combinations, otherwise you\'re essentially playing against yourself and it could end up costing you a LOT of money.
Wow That would piss me off if I found that out after the fact.
Great info thank Rocky