What do you do with a horse that may have run the lowest fig for a 3yo by August ever? Bounce? trounce? Something else?
He will bounce and 4 weeks rest will make the bounce more significant. For reference I had a filly run a negative 4 1/2 and she bounced but still won a grade 2. I’m certain he will bounce but is it enough? Wish we had more speed but looks like call Paul is our only chance to put pressure
I’ll use hog creek a bounce candidate as well but plenty rest
even if he bounces, doesn\'t he still win by 5
Philywheel
Has to be one hell of a bounce
Danny,
The text below is from an email string I’m on with some TG/non TG guy’s.
I’m working on a stakes pick 5 for tomorrow and debating if it is worth playing?
The sequence could easily chalk out with 4/5 under 2/1 with a couple under even money.....
I intended to play 2 tickets, one singling Shancelot & Elate, the other tossing Shancelot and using the closers. I’m against Hog Creek, considering Mind Control,
Borracho, Nitrous & Rowayton.
A couple more shots of Fireball May be needed.....
When they run big #’s, Shancelot TG 6- neg, one of the top 4 or 5 figures ever given to a horse on TG. Obviously they exert a lot of energy and need a recovery period to rejuvenate. They get particularly sore in their hind quarters from big efforts.
You will see many after an effort have a bad start in their next race.
The reason is they blast or push off from their hind quarters when leaving the gate. The speed balls especially. When they are sore or hurting? They don’t fully exert themselves for the blast off and often get away bad.
The combination of a big effort, having the rail and with Call Paul right outside who can certainly run with him for at least a 1/4 if not a half and whatever Navarro does!!!
Makes IMHO a decent shot to take against him in a minor position. He may be 2/5 and on 95 % of the pick 5 tickets.
The flip side is he is that much faster than the rest of the field he could handle a pretty good bounce and still win. Being in Navarro’s barn only make the decision more difficult.
Frank
A cogent and well reasoned response. I agree Shancelot can bounce substantially and still win. I’ll probably use him in a ticket but will lean more heavily on mind control and hog creek. I agree bouncing off a 7 furlong sprint and returning in a sprint is more taxing than next out routing where they don’t have to all out sprint. In my particular circumstance my filly ran a neg 4 1/2 had six weeks rest and ran a 2 turn mile on turf
I’ll spend additional time in the am and try to offer perspective on other races. Full disclosure I’m a better horseman than handicapper
Horse had an “A†work. Fade at your peril.
This is a gambling game we are involved in. When a horse will be as short as Shancelot will be tomorrow, the correct gamble is to try beat him or not put in a play if you think there is no way you can beat him rather than take 1-5 or 1-9. As leg 1 of the pick 5, this may be one of those rare instances where even with the added takeout of the p4 and one less leg, the p5 on a BIG Day pays less than the pick 4 immediately after it (if Shancelot wins). I\'ve seen this happen on more than one occasion before with a similar scenario.
The sequence sure looks like it could be very, very chalky. But if you can beat Shancelot…
I\'ll miss seeing the backyard crew tomorrow! Hope you all have a blast and get a perfect day of weather and a big score or two.
Closing weekend I\'ll pop in for one last Hurrah to closeout the meet! We will be selling Bacon Sandwiches in the backyard I\'m told! Saratoga is just too good to pass up esp while I\'m young and dumb enough to still travel.