https://www.delmartimes.net/news/local-news/del-mar/story/2019-08-15/pacific-classic-del-mar-war-story-navarro-breeders-cup?fbclid=IwAR2Wtb9A31jMOQMqFvJOq7X9RaX_iGPzXNFA7N7F6NlnYlC-Ict365UM0Zk
The connections are very high on this guy Saturday. Do with that information what you will. Glenn and Navarro will be there in person, too. I haven\'t yet handicapped the race with sheets and pps, etc., but there doesn\'t seem to be any monsters in there. War Story\'s last win was super, and although the margin was small, the jock said he had a ton left and was only hand riding down at the finish. I think the morning line is a bit high. I think 4-1 or 5-1 is more likely and remember Glenn bets a ton, so maybe even lower, lol. I\'ve spoken to Glenn a few times, I don\'t know him well, but everything he touches turns to gold. He\'s probably the best gambler I\'ve ever seen. Good luck to all.
That\'s the way I was leaning. Have to hope Seeking the Soul and Quip don\'t get back to their best. I wonder why they gave the mount to Pereira. Seems like there would have been better options in a million dollar race. Pavel is also a threat.
Apropos of . . . well, virtually nothing . . . I\'m still trying to figure out how the connections of Pavel\'s dam got her name approved.
Being a synic here Navarro is not in his back yard
Well, his horses even ran well in Dubai (for several years now) without race day medication, so that\'s about as from his backyard as you can get!
It would be a shock to me if any horse other than the four you mentioned win this race. It seems from the sheets that those 4 are way faster that all the others in the race, on top of that, except for War Story, all of the fast ones ran their top in their last, Quip\'s was a much faster number for him, a big jump in the number, but he has speed and will not have to be wide on either turn; Pavel and Seeking the Gold have never paired tops this fast.
War Story looks good to me. He has shown the ability to repeat his big efforts.
Not sure about the jockey switch, choosing to ignore and hope for the best.
I don\'t usually put too much stock in what an owner or trainer says before a race about how much they love their horse, I\'m sure he does and believes what he says, but the other trainers would say similar about their horses as well.
Good Luck
Other than XY Jet any winners?
I\'m not sure. That\'s who I was thinking of though.
yeah, I get it. of course, they all like their horses\' chances, only difference is most don\'t bet what he bets in a day--i\'m guessing six figures a day easily, if not more. when he bets on his horses, it\'s a big deal, and you\'d better take notice
Ran 2nd in BC Mile at DelMar with Sharp Aztecs I believe
Yes he did I remember it well
Battle of Midway won
I\'m on the fence about Higher Power. I think he might be circling to a new dirt top. Anyone think so? Thanks
Like a couple in hear
Quip: ran a new top last out then had 2 months to shake it Of
4 years old still maturing Has a 63% chance to run a new top or pair my #1
With a nice stalking trip behind the speed
Seeking the Soul:class of the race throw out the Mayden race solid horse beat Quip last out should have pace to run at
Mongolian Groom: Dont know much about the sire but he shows big improvement from 3-4 throw out the turf effort has a solid pattern finished second last out behind a beast.
Quip to win
Ex savor 5-9/2
Would not be surprised to see one of the bombers get a piece
Tri
2/5-9/1-5-8-9-10 wheel the 2 for second as well
GL
John
Well, I went over the race. Seems muddled, esp. from a pace point of view. Can\'t say I really have a strong opinion.
1-war story-repeat of last makes him tough; should get good trip too, legit contender if he can carry his race to west coast and hold his form which is no sure gamble--i always root for glenn his colorful owner
2-quip--obviously live; no excuse in last but one of the main runners in here, might be better stalking rather then on the speed?
3-pavel--fits in some context and o\'neil has been hot but I have a hard time see this ploddy beast capture this race--seems like a placing is realistic
4-for the top-why is he in this race?
5-seeking the soul-looks in fine shape and deserves favoritism status--hard to look past
6-higher power-in good shape anyway--seems a fringe contender to me--maybe throw in on some larger multi race exotics; but i actually think this guy would love more ground, so a definite maybe
7-tenfold-smith hops on but he would need to fire his best--at least he has won at 1 1/4 which NO OTHERS in here can say--strange right?
8-campaign-doing well but he\'s a ploddy beast--he\'s going to run by them all???
9-mongolian groom--seems slow and outside post too
10-draft pick-another i have a hard time making a case for
i\'ll spread in the multi-race exotics and hope to be alive for something--probably not playing the race
Best of luck to you but Quip looks like the easiest toss in the race to me. Big jump up and major development since last year.
Navarro bothers me, pair up probably wins and has an even bigger figure last year to run back to. Might be worth a single. Pavel last is aided by being wide, if it wasn\'t that big maybe he has another forward move in him. Dallas might already be looking past this race, a slight regression then forward move in a BC prep would make him a major contender in the classic. Think the winner is one of those three.
Totally see you point just went the other way.
Don\'t let me talk you off the horse. Just my take. Good luck. T.
15 mins to post. Pavel and Draft Pick are 6-1 and War Story 12-1. I don\'t get that.
Hope you played him nice call
Sorry never mind
johnnym Wrote:
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> Hope you played him nice call
> Sorry never mind
lol...what idiotic betting. Like him a lot and only keyed him in tri\'s. No win/place bets.
This thread really made me laugh. After all we know about Navarro...you guys seemed to be the only people surprised the horse took no money and ran like crap. Del Mar is not Monmouth Park or Gulfstream. Lesson learned here.
You may be right but:
None of the shippers ran well. Horses working at Del Mar ran 1-2-3 and War Story finished ahead of both Seeking the Soul and Quip.
Navarro is winning at a 31% clip (4 of 13) at the Spa.
And the horse ran well at Dmr before.
Joining the chat late and red boarding a little bit but I wasn’t surprised to see all of the fastest ones coming in regress. I believe they were all coming in off of paired career tops and none of them had ever run back to their top in their next race. All regressed somewhere in the neighborhood of 3pts if I remember correctly. Essentially, they ran true to their prior form. They bounced.
If you are going to RED BOARD?
Please have your facts in order....
War Story came in with a 2- neg in his last.
He had run 3.5- neg in 2017 and had paired 3.25- neg in March of 2018 @ Tampa and
3.25- neg in April of 2018 @ CT
My bad. I just remember a lot of the fastest ones were coming in off of near career best races and they were more likely to go backwards than forward.
I didn’t remember War Story pairing -3s.
Actually looking at WAR STORY that last race at MTH was the fastest he’d run since the back to back -3.25s and that was over a year and 8 races ago. I think he’s shot.
Anyhow, I don’t think it was the shipping. He’d run well at DMR before. I think it was the short rest and this horse just being over the top.
Quip ran a new top prior
Per Asmussen the Cali tracks are much different than in the past
Very heavy and slow safety reasons believe the local horses had an advantage.
It’s very unusual for Del Mar to be slow and Saratoga setting new track records.
Something to put away for the BCC
That the deeper (for safety reasons) California track gave local horses an advantage is a narrative that makes sense. What\'s troubling me is how to reconcile the Pacific Classic results with the results of the Gold Cup (run at Santa Anita in May), in which Vino Rosso shipped in to run a new top and leave Saturday\'s first and third place finishers in his wake.
Del Mar track been playing funny.Rail gold last Wednesday and Thursday. Dead rail imho on Saturday and Sunday. Do you concur Jerry, on the dead rail part?