First of all I want to acknowledge my concern for the health of the horses running @ Monmouth today. Hopefully some of those coolers that we\'ve seen on TV cooling football player in So. Florida will be on hand to cool horses off after the race.
My impression of the Haskel is that it is a curious race in so much as only one horse (Everlast) has a proven ability to make up any ground. OK, technically, King For A Day has made up some ground. He passed Maximum Security in the stretch last out. He also passed a couple early @ CD in the KYJC before being run down.
The ability to make up ground and pass horses is more of a concern for vertical bettors wanting to fill out a tri or super. You know those folks who try to complicate a race forecast by factoring in pace and running style. For them, the first problem is Everlast, he is not dependable. He may lose interest all alone behind the other six(6) wanna lead contenders.
So generally the race can be imagined as six speedballs rushing to the front and then one by one also rans dropping off the pace to be cared for before heat prostration sets in.
Given the scenario above, two favorites run the risk of being compromised. The inside horse #1 King For A Day, on the rail will IMO, be out quicked away from the gate end up behind horses early. The outside horse #7 Maximum Security doesn\'t appear to have gotten the knack of rating at all. Although predictably good from the gate his weakness if he has one is going too fast early or what if he gets behind horses or forced wide on the first turn? Just a possibility?
The third of the favored trio could should get an ideal trip. I don\'t think he\'ll contest the lead, rather he\'ll track just behind the leader. I like that Mucho Gusto is a veteran of races in which he finished strongly.
But what about the other three(3) the pricey contenders that could be in the picture early? #2 Joevia proved his stamina in the Belmont and sans a bounce should be near the lead a long time. At m/l 10/1 he\'s a must use for me. #3 Spun To Run doesn\'t appear a good gate horse and will probably come out behind the pace setter but may prove tenacious and not fade until the stretch. Traffic hazard or potential jump up? Then we have #4 Bethlehem Road. It wasn\'t the pace in the Ohio Derby that got him last out. It was pedestrian. The colt bounced. It is kind of soon to expect a rebound. But he\'s as quick as any and I expect he\'ll go with Maximum Security softening that one up and earning the distinction of the first to spit the bit.
Bottom Line
Key #2 Joevia with the three 2/1 favorites in verticals. If Joevia gets hammered at the windows use #3 Spun To Run keyed with the four above.
118 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
this is going to be interesting
I posted my take, and I like Joevi, but his issue is he doesn\'t have a high enough cruising speed and he hasn\'t shown the ability to close. I think this is a bad race flow for him. He\'s not fast enough to go with the other speeds in here.
I see a change in Mucho Gusto. I think he\'s really matured and really ready for a breakout perfomance-on paper it looks like the mile and 1/8 is not ideal but I\'m thinking he\'s a different horse for the second half of the season. That\'s my only real new insight; other than Max hasn\'t gone forward since the spring and I\'m taking a stand against him.
King is doing well and seems to me the other major contender--the one post makes that a little tricky though-can johnny send and keep going???
Closers don\'t do well in the Haskell but Everfast would seem to get a great set up, no?
good luck
The Joevia scratch appears to have helped me & maybe Ace among others, since the #3 ran well and now an inquiry sign?
Once again Maximum Security runs a rough race and is somewhat fortunate to not be taken down. The winner should get a good TG# I suppose giving a little weight.
The problem for the future seems that he\'ll be even money to foul in his next race risking disqualification again.
Congratulations to owner West for not talking about the Kentucky Derby, much.
Someone just sent me this regarding the outcome of the inquiry in the Haskell. I must say that the outcome was determined VERY fast - 23 minutes for the Derby, what seemed about 23 seconds for the Haskell. The video was shown just a few times, so for me it was inconclusive based on where they were on the turn. Not saying anything one way or another but here are some interesting tidbits regarding the Haskell:
Denis Drazin owns Monmouth Park.
Denis Drazin owns a number of race horses trained by Jason Servis.
Denis Drazin is one of the attorneys representing Gary West in the KD lawsuit.
Conspiracy theorists talk among yourselves...