Looks like it will be hot and humid in the North today, as such, keep and eye out for the watering trucks on the track today. As they will occasionally water the Tapeta to keep the track from getting too loose. After receiving water or rain, the track tightens up and can be much kinder to speed.
A few thoughts on the Plate contenders:
Desert Ride- (8-1 M/L) she won the Oaks 3 weeks ago with a big new top and also gets a five pound weight allowance in this race. As such, she has the fastest weight adjusted TG # in the field and fillies have had a great deal of success in previous editions of this race (especially her connections). However, she has the tricky rail draw and again, ran a big new top last out. Tough call - but she is a definite use at 6-1 or higher.
One Bad Boy(7-2) M/L) - projects as the lone early speed (blinkers off today). He will need a new top to win and may not get the trip.
Skywire(4-1 M/L) - comes off a pair of tops for the hot Casse barn. Has some nice spacing into the race and a repeat of his top could be good enough. Also, has a rider that knows how to save ground. The most likely winner and useable at 3-1 or higher.
Tone Broke (6-1 M/L) - after a pair of non-efforts earlier this year in Meydan, he ran well enough at Pimlico to be a contender here. He is a half on the dam side to a synthetics winner and Broken Vow also has good synthetic sire stats. Also, I doubt Asmussen would run him unless he thought he could handle the Tapeta. However, given his running style he projects to lose ground from his outer post.
Avie\'s Flatter (5-2 M/L) - has not raced for almost 2 months but appears to be working well. He will need a new top to win, and even with Castellano up, he will probably still lose ground from the wide draw.
Also, the ultra consistent Extravagant Kid is well drawn on the rail in the prior race (Highlander) and would be a square price at 4-1 or better.
Good Luck.
Agree with your analysis of this race, if Desert Ride can somehow get a decent trip she could be really tough. I used to be more afraid of big new tops, but with improving 3 year olds I\'m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that she may love the synthetic surface, or is just maturing to a stronger faster horse right about now, and that new top is only temporary and she will get even better in the future. She has never gone backwards. That being said she still may have trouble getting a trip, while One Bad Boy should have an easy lead, and if there is water added to the surface, he could be tough to catch; he never raced this far, but his Dam was a distance lover. He would not need too much improvement if the other contenders lose ground on two turns; we have all recently seen examples of how the slower horses with the better trips win races over the faster wide trips. Nice race to bet.
I appreciate the TG based analysis. Didn’t look at the race myself but grateful to see these types of posts. Good luck!