I know there are always many other factors involved but lets filter those out for the sake of this potential example
Horse A runs about a zero every time. Horse A does loom the lone speed and drew inside.
Horse B runs about a zero every time. Horse B drew just outside Horse A and has stalking speed if he chooses.
Horse B is giving Horse A 5 lbs or 1 point in figures.
Horse A is even money
Horse B is 8-5
The rest of the field has no chance.
I played Horse B on Saturday because I was willing to give the 5 lbs for the value. Was I wrong?
That’s too many assumptions for me. Nobody tune anything every time. I would have to see the specifics. Basically it’s what’s the chance of running figure X, and what’s the chance of winning if it does.
My name isn’t Jerry, but if I think i know the race you’re talking about. ...
This race came down to class for me. ... I also thought Mope ran a good race. Wish she got up.
Also, please forgive the redboard. Wasn’t my intent.
The race was the Ogden Phipps. In more simpler terms if two horses are even on figures but one has to spot the other 1 pt of weight what is the breaking point in odds where it becomes worth it to play the one spotting the weight?
If the odds were the other way around it is a no brainer. Equal on figures, giving five lbs and getting the lower odds. No can do.
I think the best I can do with this is to frame it as, if you give two horses an equal chance at level weights, how much do I think a one point weight advantage is worth in terms of chance of winning, on a percentage basis. And the answer is, depends on how sold the horses are. In a grass stake race, where they run their race a very high percentage of the time (and assuming no discernable trip advantage), it\'s worth a real lot. In a race with more volatile dirt horses, not nearly as much.
Great stuff thanks