I like War of Will. I know the 1 post position has not been good statistically for winners. But I actually think tactically today its a good spot to be running from. The rail has been live. Send out of there and sit behind the wall of early speed.
For this one he did pretty much miss his prep. So he may have needed a race. Bravazzo last year had the same set up and ran quite well Preakness Day. He has a 48% chance to pair or run a new top. A rail 1 might win this thing. I just don\'t see any negative numbers coming
Well done sir.. I thought the tote was broken when I saw 6-1 on this monster.
This was literally STEALING. It was 6-1 on the 2nd best 3YO in Country behind Tacitus. Past of the odds edge I\'m sure was NO ONE who bet Maximum Security could bet this horse today. If they did then they knew the infraction was real.
He was have been a tab short Derby Day. We will never know. But he was certainly live enough to get up there and challenge Maximum until he was denied. That move I can live with but it was the immediate left hand turn to rail and brushing Code of Honor. Too much race riding. Easy DQ
lol
Congrats Silver...no hint of PP there.
On to the Belmont and let the better picked horse prevail.
It was by default. Under normal trip handicapping circumstances people would be all over this kind of Derby Day bad trip in just about any race. Block on the rail, slammed at the start, full of run nowhere to go....whatever. This was the opposite. The back lash
PS-I gave up on Bourbon War 3 races ago. That 1 in an allowance race is a very questionable isolated top. I know the Ragozin guys got KILLED on this one today....
Yes, I wanted nothing to do with a horse that I\'ve been raving about for three weeks at 6-1 with an inside post on a track with a golden rail. (https://shadesdaddyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/leonardo-dicaprio-ray-ban-wayfarers.jpg)
The best horse in the Derby, won the Preakness.
There is a lot to talk about here with these last two races. Best 3YO? Today he can say that with absolute certainty. Down the road I\'m not so sure. The horses winning now are running 1\'s. These 3YO are starting the campaign with fewer and fewer starts. WoW has had more than a few tries. If he goes in the Belmont he has overdone it for the rest of the year. But Casse and Barber may take their swing. Give him a rest and one or two more tries later. With the way Mott is going I still think Tacitus runs over top of them Belmont Day and will be a serious force in the fall against these older horses.
How about Country House any upside in your opinion?
He went what 4-2-.5 his last 3 and now he is sick? I think this one takes a long break. His half sister Mithcel Road ran over the Top of the field yesterday and looks like a serious contender in that division perhaps at the right distance. Again another that wasnt pushed. There was another half brother who went on sprints.
3YO-Top 4
4YO-Top Neg 1
5YO- Top 0
3 off Spring so far for a real productive mare. Since Country House was put up in the Derby there is pressure to validate. He more than held his own with Tacitus in his pre Derby works. I doubt they push it.
No question Tacitus is a good 3yo but does he have to like 12f\'s?
Everfast sneaking up the rail cost me quite a bit as had Owendale keyed every way imaginable. Did anyone have Everfast? I keep looking at his sheet and the best case I can make for him (in hindsight that is) is the pair last out. ... curious if others had any thoughts.
absolutely not, but also did not have # 5 for the win at all. Expected bounce.
Anyone who had Everfast would not dare shame themselves admitting to it on this board unless they are a boneheaded idiot which we, of course, are not. We are experts ;)
That said, 25-1 was suspiciously short.
Joins the list of no shot head scratchers who have sucked up second in a TC race.
Commanding Curve, Cherry Wine, Tale of Verve.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
CC was not a no-hope-er, at least on TG - especially with his running style.
But I feel the OP\'s pain. Was completely confident in tossing Improbable out of the exacta. But would not have put Everfast in that box with your money.
If memory serves, CC was touted as a key horse by TGJB in the seminar. And for future reference, that pattern has fits the classic profile of a derby jump up horse. Pair, followed by a top to a competitive number (~2), most recent example being Country House... sigh.
The value was in the exotics. The all button would have to have been in play.
What’s more of a head scratcher Everfast or Lexitonian?
It seems that for a number of Triple Crown races after, once a big number pops in the Derby, you hardly ever see long prices. I think the smallish price on Everfast was much more a reflection on that than his actual form.
Lexitonian easily. Had him at the very bottom. At least Everfast was 4th from the bottom... so I had that going...
I did not have Everfast anywhere, but I do sometimes play horses on the switch to Rosario. It almost worked with Ulele in the Black-Eyed Susan (who I thought got pounded late). My sense is that Rosario\'s style (strong, lots of hands and heels) sometimes clicks with horses.
I echo the idea that the place to play a longshot in these big-name races is an exotic pool. Everfast was around 100-1 in both double pools that ended with the Preakness.
Solid point on the switch and your sense is most likely it. ... on another note, the Florida preps that have come back exceedingly strong (max, code, now everfast).
Agree about the Florida preps (especially FOY), but the Louisiana Derby maybe the best of all, as it produced the first two TC legs.
To add insult to injury if you needed Owendale in the box what are the chances of getting beat by Rosario on a strong rail? Somebody ask Game Winner please.
Well, I would say that none of these horses are going to have a statue built of them but then . . . Sea Hero.
(Sigh.)
twoshoes Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To add insult to injury if you needed Owendale in
> the box what are the chances of getting beat by
> Rosario on a strong rail? Somebody ask Game Winner
> please.
Someone ask Practical Joke too.
hellersorr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, I would say that none of these horses are
> going to have a statue built of them but then . .
> . Sea Hero.
>
> (Sigh.)
Still plenty of deserving horses, but they don\'t sign the checks. That\'s racing these days. Mellon commissioned statues of flesh and blood horses (including at least one he didn\'t even own). Stronach builds one of a myth.
BB Wrote:
> Still plenty of deserving horses, but they don\'t
> sign the checks. That\'s racing these days. Mellon
> commissioned statues of flesh and blood horses
> (including at least one he didn\'t even own).
> Stronach builds one of a myth.
Two! (sigh)
The second (clone of 1st) is reportedly in a warehouse in China.
Omaha Beach with the eye roll. Come on.
More likely those with shot on paper all regressed and he jumped. Not here, no way, no how did I use him. Plus he wasn’t in same zip code as the winner so the number he ran can’t be that great anyway.
That is what we like to call being “Rosario’dâ€. Use it in a sentence? Sure. “I didn’t want to use the Rosario horse, but I decided last minute to use him as a ‘B’ because I didn’t want to get Rosario’d in the last leg of the pick 5.â€
Big he only needs to like 12F once. Certainly I\'m projecting here. There is a lot to be settled. And its gonna get settled on the Track not in Lawsuits. Maybe a challenge or two.
Omaha Beach got it together. Two HUGE wins on off tracks. The Rebel was also very good. Now he is sick. We have seen this from Mandella before. A Negative 2 early (Beholder and Paradise Woods) and which way does this go after?
Again I am projecting and its gonna get settled on the track. Happy to see everyone and so many new faces engaged and involved. Its make the discussion so much more fun.
\"Actual form\"??? The horse was a vet scratch from the Pat Day mile!!!
Silver
On figures and with Tapit success in this race Tacitus looks like a very strong contender for Mott.
All but one of Tapit\'s seven starters(3-1-2) from what I can see had some help on the bottom to get the distance.
Matterhorn the exception was too slow going in to even be considered a factor.
The only reason I question Tacitus is the bottom of his pedigree which looks kinda weak for 12f\'s.I\'m no expert so maybe someone who knows what they\'re looking at can chime in.Michael D.?
Tacitus catalogue style pedigree.
http://www.equineline.com/tdn/pedigree.cfm?tk=TAM&cy=USA&rd=03/09/2019&rn=11&de=D&ref=10053442&pid=4127
Everything about this pedigree is quality and class. AP Indy, Unbridled Song, Storm Cat and Unbridled. Close Hatches didnt run until she was 3. Won at a mile and quarter.
Mott never sprinted Tacitus at 2. In the Derby the horse barely stretched his legs for most of the race. He was checked twice in the opening stretch run. Caused him to he much further back than they wanted. When they slowed it down on the backstretch he was bottled up 10 back.
There will be a big field on the Belmont. I see him being around 5/2 with Baffert and Game Winnar taking serious green. I may go ALL IN.
When did she win at 10 furlongs? Going into the Derby I was wondering why Mott hadn\'t run her at 10 furlongs (Alabama).
Tacitus is from the same female family as Belmont winners Rags to Riches, Jazil(and Close Hatches has two strains of Best in Show, third dam of those 2) -- and Birdstone. Close Hatches also has Belmont winner Empire Maker\'s dam (Toussaud) and, through Tapit, 2009 Belmont winner Summer Bird\'s third dam, Ruby Slippers.
Does anyone know why Mott skipped the Alabama with Close Hatches?
Silver,
Close Hatches ran 9f in 3 races. You can check Thoroughbred Horse Pedigree Query and in upper left type in her name. When her pedigree info comes up you can click on Reports and the drop down menu will let you click on Pedigree, Stakes Races, etc.
Yeah, I know. Silver Charm\'s post has her winning at a mile and a quarter.
There was a Million Dollar Grade 1 ($400k more) a few weeks later she won.
She won Mother Goose in late June,came down ill and missed CCA Oaks and Alabama.Won Cotillion in late September.
Close Hatches and Dreaming of Julia, the one-two finishers of the G1 Mother Goose Stakes, will both miss the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks on July 20, it was reported by the Daily Racing Form.
Bill Mott, the trainer of Close Hatches, reported that the daughter of First Defence developed a fever and missed a few days of training.
The Personal Ensign Stakes was run at a mile and quarter from 1995-2011. She won it in 2014. That is where I made my error. It wasn\'t my Personal Intentions to inaccurately state the distance of Personal Ensign. It was a timing error. I still love Tacitus in the Belmont
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Silver
>
> On figures and with Tapit success in this race
> Tacitus looks like a very strong contender for
> Mott.
>
> All but one of Tapit\'s seven starters(3-1-2) from
> what I can see had some help on the bottom to get
> the distance.
>
> Matterhorn the exception was too slow going in to
> even be considered a factor.
>
> The only reason I question Tacitus is the bottom
> of his pedigree which looks kinda weak for
> 12f\'s.I\'m no expert so maybe someone who knows
> what they\'re looking at can chime in.Michael D.?
7f speed through First Defence and Honest Lady, and more middle distance class with Storm Cat, but there is plenty of stamina back there. Mike\'s post above hits on the important points. Foundation here is Best In Show, one of the more influential distance broodmares in American racing history. And Honest Lady is out of Toussaud, Empire Maker\'s dam (Unbridled). Close Hatches was not real tall, but solid and strong. Tacitus looks to have inherited the best of all the distance genes.
Best in Show is also in the pedigree of Ten Most Wanted, and he earned a better figure than Empire Maker in their Belmont.
Thanks
I wasn\'t looking as far back as Best In Show.