All you guys with strong opinions on this race are nuts, even if you cash. This is one of the most difficult races to handicap I have ever seen-- almost as tough as the Kings Bishop. I\'m going to do the turf stake as ROTW, should be up sometime tomorrow. Still hope to get to the betting strategy post at some point.
What is tough about this race? One front runner (Lion Heart) sets an easy pace. One EP horse (Purge) sitting right behind LH. Three closers 3 to 6 lengths back and one deep closer (The Cliff\'s Edge) 10 to 15 back.
The only question to be answered is whether LH can hold off Purge. This is a two horse race and I figure Purge to take LH.
fmazur
So let\'s forget about the handicapping for a second and say you\'re right. Now all we have to do is figure out whether the favorite or second favorite will win?
They are the fastest horse in the race, and the one that (figuring saving ground) is the second fastest, so obviously both can win. But one is off a huge top, the other off a pair of negative numbers, and some of the others have very strong patterns that could yield a new top. Good luck to all-- I\'ll come up with a play for the analysis because it\'s the Travers, but it ain\'t gonna be a B+.
Unless a real value situation emerges, a bad betting race if I ever saw one! JB is right; impossible to handicap. It\'s Lion\'s to steal, but Birdstone is the real deal. Zito will have him set up for the BC Classic.
JB,
You are right in that the two \"complaint\" posts I made were criticizing the T-Graph analysis and what turned out to be your own personal analysis was \"after the fact\".
I will try the Travers as an example of a race that will be difficult to come up with a winner, using only the T-Graph numbers, but additional handicapping angles need to be considered.
Lionheart and Purge are the two \"fastest\" horses in the race, both on T-Graph and Beyers. But I can\'t use either horse, when I handicap the race.
I bet Lionheart heavily in the Haskell, based on the fact that he had a trip over the track, he was the speed of the race and having attended the last 20 Haskell\'s, the contender with the best early speed has won a majority, I thought RHT might have trouble shipping and running on the Monmouth surface. Lionheart went 46.4 to the half, RHT didn\'t fire at all, and by all rights LH should have drawn off. Instead he held Snookie\'s Boy off by a length. Lionheart has fast numbers, but he doesn\'t want 1 1/4 miles on a \'fair\' surface. He got 1 1/4 in the Derby in a sea of slop. CD bettors know that when it gets real sloppy, speed holds there. Purge has run two bad races in his life, both times on short rest. He lost by 40 in the Belmont (as a T-Graph selection and my own bet) on 14 days rest and he got bet by about 10 by Smarty on 20 days rest. He comes back on 20 days rest in the Travers. Purge is also suspect to get 1 1/4 miles, based on the dam side breeding. He got 1 1/8 around one turn in the Peter Pan and got 1 1/8 in a perfect setup where Medallist stopped on a dime. This race the pace will be fair (LH has no slow gear), the race will have mid-pack stalkers and a closer, so he will have to be better and WANT the 1 1/4.
Birdstone broke his maiden at Saratoga, running a sharp race. He ran well fresh as a 3-year old, then ran well off a five week layoff between the derby and belmont. He is a smallish horse that runs better rested. He also has tactical speed in that he can be positioned behind LH and Purge, but not 20 lengths off like The Cliff\'s Edge. Prado has been good in money races there and I trust that Zito is doing what he thinks is best by not giving the horse a race before the Travers. I also think the price will be fair. Many handicappers think the Belmont was a fluke and that Birdstone is not that good. With Purge\'s Jim Dandy and connections, he will go favored, TCE also takes money all the time and LH will be bet. I think I get 7-2 on Birdstone.
Eddington still hasn\'t figured it out. Bailey gave up on the horse, I will too. I don\'t like the way Pat Day is riding at Saratoga and don\'t think Suave is good enough. The Cliff\'s Edge might get up for 2nd and I think Sir Shackleton has a shot to improve and win the race. Birdstone over TCE and Sir Shackleton.
But the point was that I think the two \"fastest\" horses in the race, Purge and Lionheart are not bettable for \"other\" reasons besides their T-Graph numbers. Neither one finishes in the exacta.
TGJB---
What\'s so special about the turf race. It\'s NOTHING TO LOSE\'s race to lose. Inside post, better and more consistent #\'s and 5 paths in from SILVER TREE.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe-- I\'ll be coming to a similar conclusion, but I\'m going to use more words to get there. I\'m writing it now.
Jim-- I agree with a lot of what you say, and in some cases (like the Haskell, which we did as ROTW and crushed) came to the same conclusions by using a different form of analysis. That different TG players are having wildly different opinions on this race proves my point about it being a very tough one to handicap. Thanks for posting in advance.
TGJB--
I agree with your view on the Travers. Paired tops for LH at speed favoring Monmouth....what now?
Is PURGE a better horse, more developed and now better able to bounce back off of his stellar effort in the Jim Dandy? Even his trainer says he would like a few more weeks.
Does nutcase EDDINGTON finally put it all together on Saturday and will his UNBRIDLED blood get him the trip better than the rest? Or will we all just have to wait for him to become a 4yo?
Is SIR SHACKLETON improving quickly or does his West Virginia race set him back??
Does BIRDSTONE prove his Belmont was no fluke off of a 12 week layoff?
Is TCE merely a plodder, better suited to quicker paces run at 1 1/8th? Does the starch get taken out of his late kick at 1 1/4??
Terrific, but tough race.
Good Luck,
joe B.
Joe B
It is Lion Heart by daylight.
Mr Traditional Handicapper
The fastest horse wins the race. the fastest horse is Lion Heart.
Chuckles the Clown
Where are you, and your childish stupidity \"Rion Heart\"?
Lion Heart makes it look easy and all you fellas who fret about; \"can he go the distance\", \"who will close\", \"was MTH speed favoring\". See what is there, not what you want to see. The winner is obvious.
Your Friend
Cozzene
Mr. Cozzene:
The fastest horse at the distance, wins the race.
I assume you wouldn\'t bet Pico Central, Strong Hope and Speightstown against the \"slower\" distance horses at 1 1/4 miles, like Evening Attire or even Birdstone (a 3 year old).
Granted that is a more severe case than Lionheart at 1 1/4 miles. Which race of his gives you confidence he can get 1 1/4? The Derby? The Preakness? The Haskell? You certainly can\'t be basing it on breeding. Tale of the Cat won the King\'s Bishop. John Forbes was smart enough by then to avoid Free House, Touch Gold, Silver Charm, etc.
Jimbo my man
If the horse can go 1 1/8 and win he can go 1 1/4. And if memory serves me right I think he was 2nd at a 1 1/14 in a minor race at a minor track against some second rate competition.
Smith cost the horse. Bravo has a lot to prove both about himself and Lion Heart. The outcome is not in doubt.
Just as easy as Alphabet Soup and Tikkanen were on Breeders Cup Day a long time ago.
Your Friend
Cozzene
That\'s assuming he continues his string of 1 1/2 tops or moves forward. At some point he will regress. But I agree, it\'s not worth betting that he does.
Can anyone say Holy Bull???
Purge should be favored. He\'s done the most, he\'s unbeaten when not facing Smarty Jones, he\'s in great form, loves the track and his trainer is having a great meet. A Travers win will be a great way for Pletcher to cap off the meet. O/U on what he will pay: $5.70.
JJP
You\'re right on target. Purge should easily handle this field. I am hoping, he like Smarty was, is overlooked and I am able to get 2-1 plus. Look at his races--four for four when having a target to run at and all easy wins, while being zero for three when being on lead. Also two for two at Sar. won\'t hurt him.
TGJB,
I tend to agree with you.
I\'ve been looking forward to this race for awhile because I think Lion Heart is very vulnerable at 10F. IMHO, he also hasn\'t been nearly as good at Monmouth as some would believe. I don\'t think My Snookies Boy is anything special. LH was life and death to beat him once and had everything his own way loose on the lead the second time and still didn\'t draw off or earn a huge figure.
Second, I don\'t think Purge\'s preferred distance is likely to be 10F either. I think he\'s terrific and could easily win, but I\'d prefer him in a shorter race.
After those two, you really start fishing among horses that have their own flaws.
Either they haven\'t been running as fast against weaker competition, are coming off a mini-layoff (Birdstone), or are one run deep closers of the type that are usually underlays (Cliff\'s Edge).
All that said, I still believe that 10F is not the optimal distance for either LH or Purge and that both would have been highly vulnerable to another legit Grade 1 10F horse that was ready for a top effort and could get decent position early.
It\'s going to take a price to get me involved, but under no circumstances will it be LH as the favorite. If I am wrong about the distance not being optimal, so be it.
Post Edited (08-27-04 18:43)
Concerning jimbo66\'s analysis, does anyone else see a parallel between last year\'s Travers with the \"two fastest horses\", i.e. Strong Hope and Peace Rules, setting it up for Ten Most Wanted, and this year\'s race? Jimbo may be right (but if it rains Lion Heart?).
I have to go with more than # here...TCE is the one with something to prove, and a jockey who won\'t let the second-guessers tear him up after about Bailey being in the jocks room after the race. TCE as a single in the pik 3.
Based on TG figures and patterns, I think Purge is a huge bounce candidate. He bounced real hard after his 1st neg # on short rest, similar pattern applies today. However, if he pairs his last, he wins at a short price (2-1).
Lion Heart is the lone speed, and speed unchallenged invariably wins. His pairing of 2 neg #\'s shows that this horse has improved slightly since the spring, and as a 3yo, he should be improving. He\'ll be favored at about 8-5, thus no betting value on the win end.
Toss the Belmont and Birdstone is a garbage can who would be the slowest entry in the race. At 10f in the Belmont, he wasn\'t close. This (Travers) is not a 12f race.
Eddington can\'t get out of his own way. Bailey bails out for good reason.
The Cliffs Edge has paired a secondary top. I don\'t like the fact that he has not returned to his Blue Grass figure. I forsee another 0 or a slight regression. Could be on the board.
Suave is the 2nd slowest horse in the race.
Sir Shackleton appears to be the up and coming, improving horse. Nice pattern and another slight forward move puts him in the money at a nice price.
Wagering strategy: Bet Sir Shackleton to win and save with an exacta box using Lion Heart.
I\'ll have to see the post time odds, but I think Sir Shackleton and Suave will probably be the only potentially bettable horses in the race (if you simply must get involved). Perhaps Purge is usable if he goes off the 3rd choice behind Cliff\'s Edge.
Neither deserves favoritism or even close, but IMO virtually everyone else \"with a name\" is somewhat suspect because of distance, style, or probability of firing their best shot.
I rarely bet favorites and other short priced horses, but I think it is \"borderline insane\" to take a \"suspect\" one. That\'s the quickest path to losses there is at the track.
IMO, there is no way that LH will like 10F and I doubt is the optimal distance for Purge either.
Maybe they can get it if the pace is not demanding.
Maybe they can get it on a track that favors speed.
Maybe they can get it in a field of horses that contains inferior opponents and others that have to come from the clouds against what could be a slow/average uncompetitive pace.
Maybe they can get it if some opponents are not 100% today.
However, 10F is not optimal.
IMO, if you are taking a short price there shouldn\'t be any question marks because I think it\'s virtually impossible to profit over the long haul otherwise.
Birdstone hasn\'t been out in awhile and as far as I am concerned won the Belmont because it collapsed. I see no reason to \"want\" to bet him.
Eddington still hasn\'t show that he belongs at the top of the class and hasn\'t been inproving in a way that leads me to believe he will get there today.
Cliff\'s Edge is a deep closer of the type that routinely gets overbet and usually only wins when a race collapses.
Furthermore, this is still 3YO racing. Some late blooming 3YO\'s improve sharply later in the season.
It would not shock me if either Suave or Sir Shackleton improved sharply. The others were already wound up for the spring classics. If they improve from here, it will probably be the kind of improvement that comes as a result of maturity (slow steady).
IMO, Suave and SS are more likely to explode forward.
Suave has the look of a late bloomer that wants 10F.
SS is lightly raced and has been improving sharply.
You need a \"BIG\" price and a deep need to have action to take either, but you need to be crazy to take any of the others. :-)
Post Edited (08-28-04 15:21)
Class Handicapper
No way seems a little strong; dont you think?
Cozzene
>>\"No way seems a little strong; dont you think?\"<<<
Remember, I didn\'t say he can\'t win. I said there is no way he will like 10F. :-)
When I look at his record I see a horse that had a tough time lasting for 9 furlongs let alone 10F when he got a tough trip. (San Rafael and Blue Grass)
He didn\'t win at 10F in the Derby despite a loose lead on a track that most people viewed as speed favoring and when many contenders didn\'t even lift a hoof. Granted that was against Smarty, but it didn\'t demonstrate he wants it.
He got buried at 1 3/16 in the Preakness on a track that was a bit tiring despite being loose.
He wasn\'t drawing off from My Snookies Boy despite having everything his own way in his last.
I see no evidence from his record or his pedigree that he wants 10F. Unless Purge collapses, I think it is highly likely Purge will make a serious move in the middle of the race. Even if LH is better than Purge (which I don\'t believe), I can\'t see him beating back Purge\'s challenge and still holding everyone else safe.
As the \"favorite\", I have to go into a race like this focusing on betting against him. If he beats me, I congratulate him and tear up my tickets.
If on the other hand everyone in the world thought he couldn\'t get 10F and he want off at 8-1, then I\'d start looking for reasons to bet.
He might get loose.
Purge might bounce, not run well and not press him.
The track is carrying speed.
By the way, if \"anything\", Saratoga IS being kind to speed today.
Post Edited (08-28-04 18:03)
The odds are a little suprising to me.
I wasn\'t expecting Purge to be 5-1. IMO, that may actually bettable.
I also wasn\'t expecting SS and Suave to take much money at all. Can\'t bet to win at those prices. What did Len tout them? :-)
Maybe some exactas leaving off LH totally and using Cliff in the belly only?
Post Edited (08-28-04 18:19)
Who\'s Prados Vet?
Glad I fell asleep.............
Joe B
You were right I was wrong.
But,the victory was Pyrrhic at best. Whitney and Zito are a combination I can do without.
Cozzene
LH stopped before he went a mile-- I think it was a function of the two big efforts, not the distance. More tomorrow.
TGJB,
>>LH stopped before he went a mile-- I think it was a function of the two big efforts, not the distance. More tomorrow.>>
I understand why you think that. It fits better with your general thinking about the game and your figures for him. I will have to disagree though. Perhaps he didn\'t run a peak effort, but LH has been having a tough time beating fields of non-entities - once while running with a loose lead on a speed favoring surface at 9 furlongs at Mon. It doesn\'t get any easier than that.
Today, a quality horse hooked him, put him away, and he spit the bit and tired badly because the distance is out of range and he was against real Grade 1 horses. That\'s exactly what I said would happen. In fact, perhaps Purge didn\'t run quite as well as last time, but he too revealed his vulnerability at 10F just like I said he might.
Horses, are not machines. So of course it is impossible to prove either of our views. But not every horse that doesn\'t run back to his recent figures bounced because of his prior efforts - especially when some people are screaming that this is great horse to bet against for a variety of reasons other than recent effort.
I did not cash the race, but I am certain I played the race right by leaving Lion Heart out of everything and only using the Cliff\'s Edge in the belly of the exacta.
LH was not running nearly as well as the figures indicated and was facing a distance he did not want and CE has a style that rarely gets it done unless a race collapses. I just had the wrong horse on top in my attempt to cash in on the value presented.
Post Edited (08-28-04 23:06)
I just wish all those efforts had caught up to Lion Heart one race sooner...
These were my comments on this board before his last start:
\"We had a discussion on this board not long ago about the grind of too-fast-too-early and the TC on Smarty Jones and I think Lion Heart is a classic example (as much so as SJ). True, he did not run in the Belmont but he had several fast 2 year-old races and 4 big efforts in a row this spring starting with the San Rafael followed by the BG, Derby and Preakness. Not to mention he appears to have some distance limitations given his breeding and running style so those last 2 spring efforts probably really took a toll given his willingness to try hard even after he is tired and beyond his best distance. I think he could fall apart at any time and is a play against from now on. He may last through the Haskell but I will take a pass on him. Keep in mind though that I was also betting against him in his last 3 races (TGJB liked him in the Derby and I did not) and he has ran well in all three..
I think My Snookie\'s Boy is the value in here. He gets the rail and a repeat of his last could win this. His last was very impressive in that he took on Lion Heart from start to finish and almost won despite that not being his normal running style.\"
Chris
I am stunned that anyone played LH after the simplistic discussion, including LH being caught by TCE last April...you guys just don\'t get it with LH....he is not a distance getter...that\'s all.
I got paid in the Travers but a much better outcome for me would have been TCE winning the race.I felt he would benefit from at worst an honest pace considering LH and Purge would be sitting 1-2 around the track and both are quick.I thought it would play out similar to last years Travers.I knew Bravo and JR wouldn\'t go suicidal considering both had distance concerns,but how do you throttle down LH for a 1/2 in 49.15 and Purge 49.35.Those horses gallop faster than that and will resent being asked to run like that in the early part of a race.
Did the extreme wind and weather have any effect on the time of that race, or did both riders just overreact and slow it to a crawl?
I know it was the only 2 turner on dirt on the card,but when the half was only 49 I knew TCE was dead meat.
BTW Smokey Glacken,Nothing to Lose(needed a trip and got it)and Pomeroy all looked to be standouts in the first 3 legs of the pk 4 based on t-graph #\'s alone.You\'re product is by far the best out there.
Time to give Birdstone his due; he ran a monster alw. at GP, had legit excuses in his next 2. The Belmont stamped him the real deal, and I will say this again- He will be a serious horse in the Classic, and a square price to boot! He has now sat close to a slow pace, and off hot fractions, and won for fun both times. If he wins the Classic, he IS horse-of-the-year!
What do you mean by distance?? Which distance? Looks like to me he can go 8.5 and 9.0F and at 10.0F hes 2-0-1-0 and at 8.5 and up hes 7-3-2-0 oh by what do you mean?? and by the way no I didnt bet LH I had TCE with LH-Bird and Purge. LH might not be able to handle the big boys, maybe like a Peace Rules type shows up every once in awhile and steals one.
Cozzene--
I was sorry to see LH get retired. He was a gamer....thxs for your note.
Good Luck,
Joe B.