Baffert blinkers then no blinkers.
Looks sharp and has won over the track.
I’m asking what is the chance he is the pace?
Thoughts?
I’ll stand by my previous statement... if a City Zip wins, then I lose. I don’t have many strong opinions but I have this.
For anyone who wants to talk about Collected, I’m wlling to go on about this one for days.
I think it is a mistake to dismiss him based on City Zip. Improbable gets a ton of depth from his female line. With his dam coming out of AP Indy, and his second dam is a sister to Hard Spun.
Looking back, there were some questions about the breeding of Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, and California Chrome. Would have been foolish to arbitrarily omitted those horses who had run better than maybe their breeding suggested.
What evidence is there that Improbable won\'t get 10f?
He was coming off a 3.5 month layoff and still ran a great race in the Rebel...earning a very solid TG figure. Sure I would like to see him not get caught at the wire, but LRT ran a significantly slower figure while winning. Then in the slop at the Ark Derby he was agitated prior to the race, had to be re-loaded into the gate, was climbing as he appeared to not like the track, and still finished strong with the second fasted TG of the spring.
A. Foaled Feb 11, 2016. One of the older 3 y/o\'s in the field.
Auction History
B. Sold KEENOV 2017 by Lanes End to Taylor Made Sales Agency (http://www.taylormadeadvantage.com/staff) $100K
C. Sold KEESEP 2018 by Taylor Made to Maverick Racing & China Horse Club (http://chinahorseclub.com/en/about-us/introduction/) $200K
D. Couldn\'t determine who Maverick Racing was other Marshal Maverick power boat racing, Trans Am auto racing no connection to James Garner. It appears to me that Winstar Farm (http://www.winstarfarm.com/) replaced Maverick in any event.
So Improbable (whose name is surely significant) was not a particularly expensive. A nice prospect for a syndicate like CHC and at the price plenty of upside.
Winstar gives the colt to Baffert (somewhat noteworthy) for training. This is a relatively new partnership with both partners probably looking forward to future success and connected to the Justify deal
9/29/2018 - Baffert wastes no time debuting @ Santa Anita besting Grey Magician and 4 lesser-knowns at odds on. Going 3 wide and getting up after a sub :22 1st quarter.
11/2/2018 - Next BB sends him to CD with his Breeders Cup contingent where once again @ odds on he crushes to field in the Street Sense Stakes at one mile. Once again 3 wide and 3rd early.
12/8/2018 - About a month later in the Los Alamitos Derby Improbable (again @ odds on) runs down Mucho Gusto while again 3 wide and from 3rd early. This time @ 1+1/16th.
My guess is that the colts throat surgery followed not long after. C/B the throat condition had something to do with his name?
3/16/2019 - The undefeated colt, now on the Ky Derby trail, ships to OP for the Rebel and loses for the first time by being narrowly out finished. Most would say his 5 wide trip kept him from being undefeated.
4/13/2019 - Needing points and with an excuse for losing the colt comes back in the Ark Derby. This time he runs into a sloppy track and a buzz saw named Omaha Beach. Beaten only a length, this time @ 1+1/8, is not an embarrassment. His TG figure earned proves that the effort was impressive. Acting up before the race, odd for impeccably trained Baffert horses. Purists could argue he wins the race if not for 5 wide trip.
Opinion
If you want to toss Improbable at projected double digits, a horse whose sum total of beaten by distance is a length and a head, one would have to find a reason other than actual performance. Sire City Zip is not known for getting progeny which race wide.
If we want to toss the colt because City Zip is not considered to have the stamina to win at 1+1/4. Nobody is questioning Tapit (yet) with no derby winners, yeah Tonalist inherited the Belmont Stakes that\'s not the same.
Jose Ortiz not shy nor hesitant to mix it up, that is my concern a troubled trip. Pretty sure the horse likes to run on the outside, ground loss is predictable.
I fully appreciate that the KY Derby and a 1+1/4 miles requires stamina (or great condition e.g. Nyquist, Always Dreaming) but I prefer a horse proven at 1+1/8 who consistently contends to a stamina only plodder bobbing and weaving down the final stretch coming up short and me scratching my head and thinking if he had that much left why didn\'t he start his run sooner?
bluechip21 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I’ll stand by my previous statement... if a City
> Zip wins, then I lose. I don’t have many strong
> opinions but I have this.
>
> For anyone who wants to talk about Collected,
> I’m wlling to go on about this one for days.
Many people said this about Bold Ruler. He only produced the greatest classic horse of that and any generation? Why? Dam side was loaded.
There is plenty of stamina available in Imp\'s bottom line. Plenty.
I never heard about improbable throat surgery.
That was Roadster.
My question was is there a possibility he is the pace.
Ty
Am I seeing things when I see a colt who will not get off of his left lead two races in a row?
Good Luck,
Joe B
.
Jose Ortiz is staying with Tacitus who everyone is throwing out. But Improbable picks up Irad who is maybe the top guy going now.
I\'m re-warming up to Improbable and here is why. First race back ultra wide, had been off 90 days and had a 3 career race bottom. May have gotten lazy and green too. Beaten a head. Next race out could have gone 10 more laps around and was not going by Mudlark Omaha Beach. Beat the 3rd place horse by like 8. Has back to back fast Figs. Has a win over the Track and Funny Cide before him was supposed to be facing much the same issues. Also was 10-1
Praying for 10-1. Gut is telling me we might get only 8.
The Bafferts will all get hammered more in Multis vs the Derby. AP year was live to AP & Dort in the p5 a couple times. AP was like 3800 & Dort 4900. Pretty bad for Dort considering how much more hype AP had imho.
Silver I get the Funny Cide comparison and I really do like Improbable but I think we all know why Funny Cide turned the tide on Empire Maker. The same reason why I will bet Omaha over Improbable. Tactical Speed. Empire Maker didn\'t have it and Funny Cide earned a magnificent trip. Empire ran the better figure but it did not matter. I could see a similar outcome from the Wood 2003. An exacta out of the arkansas derby. Good luck
Thanks for putting this together and things into perspective, for me at least. Maybe I’m overthinking this whole thing with my stance on City Zip. Anyways, I’ll drop it and get back to the sheet discussion.
... and yes, if we get double digits, then he is a must use.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I never heard about improbable throat surgery.
> That was Roadster.
> My question was is there a possibility he is the
> pace.
> Ty
oops my bad!
Go into the archives and pull the Sheet of Funny Cide up. He was running 2nd and everyone questioned that pedigree. But he was fast enough and got a great inside trip Derby Day. Got to the lead in the Lane and got there.
I think there’s a real shot that he’s on the lead to answer the question. (Post pending) but yeah I think he goes, War if Will needs to be up front to have a shot so he goes and Max Security will be forwardly placed to, possibly sacrificing his chances to help Game Winner? But I do see scenario’s where Improbable is on the lead or just off it running on the outside (same as War of Will most likely wants to be) Spinnoff likely forward but not fast enough to be the actual speed.