Same sh*t, Different shovel. Really don’t see any holes in Pappa’s big horse. I truly want to & I can’t. He’s been touched by the hands of a horse God & this just seems like fate. I do appreciate all the amazing hard work & analysis I read on here. True students of the game. GL on crushing the Derby all.
They haven\'t even drawn the race yet. I don\'t think an inside post would suit Omaha Beach. It seems to take him a while to get in gear.
I also think the point made by toppled about the 4.5 point new top may have some validity. In general, I am struggling with what to do with the Arkansas Derby figs. Do the TG figs overstate the strength and/or stress of a performance for a horse that was wide on a track that many think favored outside runners?
Chas04 Wrote:
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> Same sh*t, Different shovel. Really don’t see
> any holes in Pappa’s big horse. I truly want to
> & I can’t. He’s been touched by the hands of a
> horse God & this just seems like fate. I do
> appreciate all the amazing hard work & analysis I
> read on here. True students of the game. GL on
> crushing the Derby all.
Omaha Beach loves the slop. Unless it rains, you can have him with my blessings at 3-1.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I just looked at the archives for the last 5 years, could not find a derby horse that did not back up after a -2(neg#) or faster in a derby prep race, only a couple-justify and american pharoah both improved after -1(neg#) races to new tops to win the derby. Three horses in 2015 had -2(neg#) preps, all faster than American Pharoah\'s preps, and all three, Frosted, Materiality and Upstart all backed up.
So historically, there is a basis for looking past Omaha Beach in the derby despite him being the fastest going in.
Even if he backs up a little there are other fast horses in here, some of which may be ready to go forward to neg numbers
Young horses improve at different times, some are precocious very early, others a little later. Look at Gun Runner, was not fast as a young 3 year old, but kept improving as he got older, in 2015 Upstart ran 2 races faster than -2(neg#) pre derby, what did he do after that?
I guess this is a longwinded way of saying that I\'m playing Omaha Beach to bounce on derby day.
If you went back one more year Orb repeated his fast # in the Derby.
Irish War Cry is another example, who just stopped running when they hit the turn, much to my dismay as I faded the winner and keyed the second place horse. Sad!
Two of the examples you gave from 2015 were Pletcher trained.
I say with pretty good confidence that if O.B was trained by Pletcher
there would be a large number on this board that would be backing up the brinks truck.
If memory serves me correct that was kind of the sentiment on this board with Always Dreaming bouncing.
As he had a huge jump up.
My biggest concern is just that Mandella trains the horse, and triple crown races are not his m.o. Similar to Mott, i consider Mandella a hay and oats trainer, far from the modern super trainers; these old school guys tend to have horses bounce more, esp. Mott. Maybe the horse is a freak and he can pull it off. Smith choosing him certainly makes a huge difference and should not be taken lightly. Saying that he likes slop is a negative is absurd\' that just means the horse is very talented and efficient moving; it means he\'s a better horse, not somehow lacking. Smith would be the biggest vote of confidence though.
All tremendous facts & I liked most of them. This just seems different. He seems different. I haven’t always backed the favorite. Tried to beat em all but AP.
Smith may be looking down the road also. Why get off what he knows is a quite talented horse even if a potential off race is on the horizon, especially one that may be around for a 4yo campaign. Anyway, that\'s the way I\'m viewing it. 5th start of the year with the 4th being the Ark derby is tough to back with conviction.
Always Dreaming jumped up over 5 points in the race before the derby and then moved forward one more point in the derby. Omaha Beach\'s 2year old races were on turf, but his first race as a 3 year old was on dirt and it was a fast number, but since that 1st dirt race he has moved forward 6.5 points, lots of development in a short time, so you have a point, it can be done, the forward moves were both larger than many sheet players like, but sometimes they don\'t bounce. Overall, for me I would rather play a horse who has gradually moved forward, especially since the big jump up horses are usually shorter prices. (probably why I haven\'t cashed a derby ticket in a while).
its pretty obvious for TG players on the sheets, a definite play against at least win, maybe out of the super. Big top, to many races
Have you seen this animal on the track? Farthest thing from a bounce candidate. I fully understand most on here will keep saying that same thing & that’s cool. Somebody will be right. My question is....does anyone agree he looks pretty tough & will be a key for them? And if so why.
Chas you are wasting your time man. Everyone has the right to an opinion and people on here aren\'t going to change theirs. Good luck
I understand. I’m just looking for a few who agree. Not everyone is going to see it that way. Best of luck to you as well.
Chas04 Wrote:
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> I understand. I’m just looking for a few who
> agree. Not everyone is going to see it that way.
> Best of luck to you as well.
In the beginning the concept of the fastest horse is the most likely to win the race was conceived.
When that didn\'t always happen, the bounce idea took hold.
It isn\'t a coincidence Omaha Beach is the pre-race favorite.
Simple race Omaha beach over the Bafferts - get paid.
Although I will certainly complicate it.
OB over Bafferts is a no brainer for exactas IMO but still need to pin down that elusive Instilled Regard type forgotten horse. So far I’m seeing so logical arguments being made for War of Will and Spinoff but who knows...maybe Gray Magician or Master Fencer will pull a Gronkowski on us â€" the equine athlete that has the distinct honor of making burn through a large part of my bankroll. Formerly, that honor belonged to none other than Mr. OneHitWonder Always Dreaming.
Of the illogical ones I keep coming back to Signalman, there\'s just something about that sheet that keeps me interested. Not sure what it is, I guess there is some similiarities to Instilled Regard last year, but that\'s not it I think. Would be fun if he gets in.
Most of these three year olds never even make it to four. The triple crown races destroy them. I\'m fairly certain Smith chose what he believes is the best horse. And I also think he and Baffert had some kind of split,the result being a smiling Mike beating Baffert in virtually every big race this year. I don\'t think the derby will be any different. I have no dog in this fight though. I\'ll just get the sheets and form and handicap it Friday night like aways. I\'ll never understand all the hype around the derby for gamblers. We\'ve got so many things to bet on these days. And how many years now have we had favorites? Those days of the mystery longshot horses are long gone. Everyone has access to all this information. They even mention thorographs constantly on TVG! All the clockers sell their workouts and even the horse whisperer Kerry Thomas sells his analysis on Brisnet. He\'s never not selected the winner by the way. He\'s like 5 for 5. It\'slike a short novel. He spends weeks writing it. For fifty bucks he\'ll tell you what each horse is thinking. You\'re not likely finding anything that everyone else doesn\'t know. You\'re better off playing the golden pick six at golden gate tomorrow! I think it\'s all stakes races and probably big fields. Good luck whatever you do!
Hate to quibble with your overwhelmingly positive take on the world\'s most famous race and the fastest two minutes in sports but....
The Golden Gate Rainbow 6 was hit today by someone for $383k. Tomorrow is a mandatory payout but don\'t think it will be quite the exciting event you expect. Guess I\'ll wait for next weekend for that silly race in Louisville with 20 horses, loads of differing opinions it seems if you have read the board, and possibility of a once in a lifetime score in the form of a pick 5 or superfecta.
You are absolutely correct. Best betting Derby in some time IMO. Why no one is looking at Country House at 50:1 mystifies me.
Board has lighted up recently...please continue all.
Very tough Derby, hope that we get a dry fair track!
they hit it?! i was doing a very non-racing thing like working all day yesterday.
well, i\'m right even though i\'m wrong. i\'m fairly certain no one on this board is going to cash 383k on derby day-yes, i\'m mr positive these days for sure. i\'ve gotten a little sour shall we say on this game we all love. oh well onward and upward, just ignore me
You should never use terms like that; you almost sound like the talking hand puppets on TVG! The only way it\'s a life changing score or once in a lifetime score or whatever jargon you prefer is if you promise never again to set foot inside the gates of hell (I mean a racetrack), deposit your cell phone and computer into an electronic waste recycling dump, buy a share or two of Berkshire Hathaway stock and live on a desert island like Wilson from Castaway for the rest of your life. If you follow that criteria and, most importantly, lose contact with all deadbeat family moochers, then maybe. Just maybe.
Just one big ray of 🌞
Some good Derby/Oaks insights from Jon White here:
* https://racingdudes.com/blinkers-off-376-4th-annual-jon-white-kentucky-derby-interview/