Owendale couldn\'t look more different on TG and Rags. His pattern is very nice on TG and looks to run well IMO. Not so much on Rags. Curious how they could have his last three races SO different.
TG- last three starting with most recent- 6 1/2, 6 1/2 and 6 1/2
RAGS- 14, 7-, 15-
Very curious. Rags has his winning race as the slow one?
Further the colt is typically a front runner and lost a ton of ground in his last to pair his TG #.
Curious horse.
The 7- is the winning race
Hats off the TG.....horse looked like the winner on theirs.
Hats off to you too... for uncovering him!
There were a lot of horses that could win that race on our data, so I\'m not so focused on that. But yes, he figured to run well. And yes, there have been a lot of huge \"differences\" (ahem) since Ragozin retired, with just the few times a year I see their sheets. But we\'ve kinda won that war already, I\'ve been leaving it alone.
these were the top #\'s on ragozin
1-11
2-15
3-8.75
4-6.5
5-10.75
6-11.75
7-9.75
8-6.75
9-9.5
10-11
TO be honest Jerry that\'s the thing I struggle with using your data. Many races it seems like 80% of the horses have the same shot to win. It very hard to separate one from another. Maybe most horses in a race are really that close in ability/speed.
If you have a data source that\'s making winners obvious I strongly urge you to use it.
As Terry Bjork of The Derby List was inordinately fond of noting: After every race somebody jumps up and yells \"The Sheets had it! The Sheets had it!\"
Yeah, really! Lol
Mstrlucky74 Wrote:
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> TO be honest Jerry that\'s the thing I struggle
> with using your data. Many races it seems like 80%
> of the horses have the same shot to win. It very
> hard to separate one from another. Maybe most
> horses in a race are really that close in
> ability/speed.
Most horse players lack patience.
There are plenty of races that have horses with a strong edge on figures. You just have to be patient and not throw money away on races that you shouldn\'t invest a dime on.
Looking at pace scenarios helps me make decisions with races that have a bad favorite or several contenders. Races that don\'t have a standout. The Hollendorfer filly last Sunday a good example of that.
This is where experience reading the sheets come into play. You may see a few horses in a race with a similar figure, say a 6. This does not mean each horse has an equal shot of winning. You need to consider how those horses got to that number and how the figure to run off of that number. There are countless angles out there that players use, some much more popular and widely known than others. It is up to you, the handicapper, to handicap the race. All the sheets provide you is the very best information available to help you make decisions.
In the example you cite above, the horse paired his 2YO top and then did it again, normally people may play against the horse next out, but a keen trainer (Cox) and adequate time off between his last race suggested a move forward was possible. Where as the favorite was coming off a significant top in a race run 3 weeks ago. I’ll also point out Sueno (the 2nd choice), who you may argue had a similar looking numbers to the winner. The difference, for me at least, was the quick turn around coming off consecutive pairs on short rest, while trying to chase derby points. Meanwhile, Cox, who spots his horses carefully, sits out the derby hype and swoops in to collect a $200K check. (I did not cash on the race)
As is inferred in a reply, there is no magic bullet that is going to make picking winners seem obvious to you.
There\'s also an issue of different layout and graphics. Just as I can\'t read patterns on the Jakes, I suspect someone who is used to them has trouble with ours.
But the most important issue is always going to be accuracy. I\'m not going to rehash years of theoretical and practical points here, but this is an answerable question.