Tried to tell everyone it was a great day to block it all out and wager. 30,000+ at Keeneland. Big Crowd at SA. (fyi Gulfstream was packed last week) Exciting races and finishes. We can talk about that or we can talk about that one Dallas Stewart runner who broke down and close Keeneland for 21 days. Ahhhhhhh NO!!
Roadster dropped back far turn and then put in one helluva a run. So he has a line of 7-6-3-?. Tacitus good bounced around first turn, took a moment to get rolling far turn and quickly grabbed up Tax with a line of 8-8-3-?. So lets assume they ran about a 1-1.5. Both have developed 6 points. They are coming off another forward move. Which means they are stuck at 1? I don\'t think so. Wanna see Roadster do what he did into far turn Derby traffic. Big difference from yesterday. Tacitus has a TON left in the tank people. Not gonna say an Arrogate stride
SPAM Editor got me for some reason but Tacitus might be my Derby horse. He got 4 light whacks of the stick on the right and then one two on the left to keep him from leaning in. This is an example where using the whip was for the safety of the horses. But that\'s another topic.
Also does Game Winner need a jockey change? What was Rosario doing going up 4 wide on the far turn to tackle Instagrand and others? He was wide at Oaklawn. He was wide yesterday. He early moved yesterday. This horse might have run a 0 which makes him the fastest horse in the race. For the most part Trips have won all Spring. Game Winner will be a half a dozen lengths are or more back on Derby Day. Does he have the kind of Trip Jockey to use his talent to get the job done?
Agree that Tacitus looked great.
My worry about him and lots of others is where is the pace going to come from? The tracks were so dull yesterday that I can\'t get a read on what the horses will do on a glib strip, which is what Churchill is when dry. Can Tacitus or Roadster or WWW catch a Maximum jogging on the front end?
That\'s a great point and since there is no way to enter cheap speed because of the Derby Points system its a problem
My horse coming out of the Wood is Haikal,if you weren\'t in the top 3 at the top of the stretch yesterday at The Big A
you had no chance, he really put into gear in the stretch,I bet him in the futures (30-1)maybe I should have waited, might get more that that at post time.
and got the bounce out of the way
philywheel
To keep him from leaning in? He bore in 6 paths and pinned Tax down on the rail thru the stretch. Watch the head-on. As is often said, might be jock piloting, might be tiring when the bearing in/out is that bad. I want nothing to do with him in the Derby.
I hate to burst everyone’s Derby bubble so early but this outcome seems pre determined to me.
Tread points out the severe BI of Tacitus, without an inquiry or jock claim seemed a surprise to me. No sour grapes only had a 1/2 box and the difference was $4 for a buck.
Haikal was in a different zip code and picked off some distanced garbage down the lane, he won the Gotham the same way flying home in 25. No one can like the way the Bluegrass Winner looked in the lane yesterday running against nothing.Per usual the Louisiana Preps were slow, Code of Honor, no thanks, Bourbon may not get in. Most of the rest don’t even warrant discussion.
Baffert’s 2 yesterday and Imperative who easily gets in with a 3rd in Hot Springs next Saturday all look better here than anything mentioned above or in the points list below.
Imperative goes out with the Servis 16K claimer in 45 & 108, depending on the draw of the other 2, one will get instructions to block or take someone who may threaten out and the remaining BB swoops the group to win another Derby for Bobby.....
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard
Furthermore the fastest prep by the clock yesterday was in Keeneland and the pace setter won in a stroll.
I\'m not sure if the efforts to slow down Santa Anita present any problems for TGJB\'s figure making but they were successful and I\'m guessing the speed figures come back all over the place?
They were all slow at SA (and in NY). Bella in 1:45. The Cap in 2:03. Excelsior slower than the Wood. World of Trouble 7F in 1:23?
Clearly the tracks, not strategery.
All good Tread. My price will be juicy then. BTW what\'s Mandella gonna do with Omaha Beach? Start rating? Doubt it. He is also gonna need a Rider. Smith will stay with Roadster. He needs a good Send Jockey Call 1-800-PACO
Tacitus only bore in when he was being hit right-handed. I am not a big fan of Tapit offspring at 10 furlongs, but Tacitus also had the excuse of being bounced around going into the first turn.
Jose Ortiz may have an interesting choice to make: Tacitus (and Mott and Juddmonte) or Improbable (and Baffert and Winstar).
Philly,
Fwiw, check the archives. Horses tend to perform better in the derby off new tops and pairs. It\'s certainly not a hard and fast rule. Just sayin.
Flighted
WWW checked pretty good and still kept coming. I thought he put in a pretty good run. Would def be inclined to use.
SIAP - Beyer from yesterday
Roadster - 98
Tacitus - 97
Vekoma - 94
Sounds about right.
Of the weekend runners it seems like Roadster under the BB spring program is most likely to take another step forward. But it’s a lot harder to make the run vs 19 than 5?
If Improbable wins next week is he the derbyfavorite? No one stands out this year, the talking heads will influence the public more than normal with the absence of a “star.†Agree this has the makings of a (much welcomed) return to a price(es) this year.
Don’t sleep on Mandella
The Arkansas Derby will be won by Improbable or Omaha Beach. If they put up a 104 or higher Beyer and that will be your favorite in Louisville.
It may be Game Winner does not react well to kickback. Every race he is placed outside. Looks to be by design.
May have worked last year when he was much the best.
This year he does not tower over the rest. He cannot sacrifice that much ground in a 20 horse field and expect to win.
What about Game Winner? He surely got the best TG number in that race. Did Beyer give him a better number?
BB said he got tired late as well, I could concede the possibility that he that he wasn’t fully cranked up, but still wouldn’t want to hear that. Although I did read that BB appeared upset after the SA derby w the outcome? Not sure what that means?
I really hope Omaha Beach isn’t the favorite, preferably not in the top 3-4...
I figure 2 TG points better due to ground loss, which puts him near negative territory.
It was a huge effort. My biggest worry going forward would be that it took too much out of him, on that kind of surface.
\"It was a huge effort.\"
Kind of like Silver Charm\'s Santa Anita Derby. . . .
It\'s incredulous that anyone would compare Roadster\'s Santa Anita Derby to Silver Charm\'s.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Was he comparing Roadster or Game Winner? I think the later. Someone else had mentioned this to me. Look I never considered him a throw out. And if you like him before why get off now when he is liable to he about 4-1 or maybe more??
Game Winner.
The 1997 Santa Anita Derby was more than a Two horse race if we remember. Sharp Cat set the pace all the way around before tiring late. So Silver Charm gets a nod for practically fighting for the lead all the way.
Meanwhile it was Freehouse who took the route Game Winner did and yes I got your point the 2nd place horse went on to be a winner in the Derby. Meanwhile Hello (remember him) made a nice move late before weakening to just hold third.
The curious thing, for me, was Captain Bodgit the derby favorite that year came to KY after winning both The Florida Derby and The Wood Memorial. Tacitus won in FL and NY but the curse of the Wood will no doubt impede his favoritism.
The 1997 Santa Anita Derby --> (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok_NOiOdk4E)
The ill-fated Hello--he was a nice horse. That was a terrific Derby (and Preakness and Belmont). It looked like the Captain would get up at the wire after all but just missed. Capuano did a good job with him.