That\'s taking a stand. Think Code and Maximum have very good shots to beat them both. Good luck.
Any posts here with picks should have reasons with them, otherwise who cares.
My 2 Cents.
I hate betting favorites and may have a say in this.
JB how certain are you of that first #?
He had a 6 point reaction if that initial # is correct.
He is going 1/8 longer (They all are) with 4 more LBS.(They all are)
If he is a miler or a sprinter then this is the time to go against him and the
way this prep season has gone why not at 5/2?
But that being said he is on my Pick 6 tix
I like three other horses in this race more than H.S.
1) Bourbon War for the reason said.
2) I like Wallbanger at a Price.
Congrats colts make a nice jump from 2-3 yrs old
Sheets say he is not fast enough and sheets alone I agree.
I am more than willing to pay at these odds a horse that liked the track with a nice top of the layoff. No doubt in my mind with a trainer running 35% new tops with a 32% of a new TG top coming off the fastest work of 99 other horses and doing it all on his own.
This horse is improving fast and coming in fresh he is a Win pick for me
3) JB I actually like CH pattern here. you say he has not developed as 3 year old.
I agree but that last pair was perfect for me to a trainer of a Kentucky Derby winner who took pretty much the same path as this guy.
He is another I believe sitting on a forward move.
3 horse EX box 3/4/9
GL
I agree with Jerry hidden scroll and BW look strongest but I see it as a 4 horse race rather than a 2 horse race. While Harvey is slower I like a horse that has just eclipsed his two year old number and with time between races and speed to set up his close I’ll make a tri with Harvey in the first and second spots using hidden scrol, Bw, and Hc
Various ROTW Thoughts:
1) Misterlucky: Your weekly ROTW trollfest is about as predictable as Hialeah\'s
daily flight of the Flamingos, but nowhere near as entertaining. But thanks for
sharing the hard trying Cartouche\'s picks with us! If I had known I could have
been spared the agony of reading the insufferable Ken Sherman\'s extended take
on a workout he admittedly did not see. Brilliant!
2) Going to jump on the H. Wallbanger bandwagon. He is not in the same league
figure wise with the top ones here, but I see a hot pace set up by the Servis
runner, the maiden, and at one point or another Hidden Scroll. Lots of two turn
foundation in his 2YO campaign. McPeek\'s strike rate in graded stakes (14%) is
comparable to Mott (17%) and McGaughey (12%). His \"Last 90 Day\" TG trainer stat
is also encouraging.
3) I am not vertical player, but if I was I would throw in Pletcher\'s Current in
what will be his first try on a fast track. Current is bred for this and was a
pricey Keeneland September yearling who sold for $725,000.
A great day of racing starting with Arabians in the Desert at approx. 7:45
am....
Mr. Bee, you never disappoint, nice to see you rounding. It turns out that Mrs. Tross and the pooch will be driving back from Fl. a month early. Her own mother must have tossed her. So with my last complete game set up for tomorrow, I too will begin with Dubai, but will skip the first, even I have limits. With SA back on the docket, i’ll Be looking at at least 12 hours, and 12 tall boys from Meyden to Arcadia with a stop in Hallandale Beach along the way. If I can stay awake I’ll be cheering The Zags, which if they can win two, Al will be set up for a modest score in a bracket pool. I’ll toss in Harvey W. And best of luck. I’ll post the winner of the two big ones tomorrow right after they’re official.
Al:
Great to hear from you. Any man who can take a cheap shot at his wife, promise a
redboard and throw in a hoops pick for good measure is OK by me.
Looking at the late P4 at Hallandale, The Juice Man has Articulator (R11) who has
been mostly an off track sort. He is a WS Farish bred by Quality Road (150K stud
fee) out of a Mineshaft mare who sold for $4,500 as a yearling. Which means he is
likely as crooked as NYC\'s current Mayor deB... oops sorry JB, forgot, no politics!
richiebee it\'s nice to see your wit is embellishing the board this week.
I can not consider this race without first considering history. But first things first which would be the UAE derby and the unveiling of my annual 2019 Kentucky Derby\'s sushi-son. This year that would be Derma Louvre which sounds a little like an engine additive when voiced after a dose of wasabi. He doesn\'t have the \"bizarreness\" of Lani (yet) or the brilliance of Mendelssohn but with some Japanese KD points and some Dubain points to go with the owners intent one we\'ll see in KY.
The FL Derby (ROTW) tradition is not unlike the Masters. FL winners who have won the roses include: Spectacular Bid, Swale, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. With some exceptions the winners have been front runners.
Add in a few names that won in FL but not KY like Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Quality Road and Take Charge Indy and you have many of the top sires in recent history. So the 2019 winner of the FL Derby is very likely to become a celebrity. I contend the horse almost certainly will be the property of iconic industry trainer and owner.
Let us not forget that Mr. GQ Todd Pletcher has won won four of the last five running of this Hallandale classic. So a cursory cull gives us #1 Hidden Scroll a double qualifier with Mott & Juddmont Farms, ditto #2 Current TAP & senor LaPenta, #7 Maximum Seurity is kind of a nouveau riche qualifier being by New Years Day, the West\'s & Jason Servis like TGJB mentioned this one is worrisome but with the wrong running style (imo) needs help. #9 Code of Honor (Farish McG III about as industry insiders as you can be)
In summary we have three contenders #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor & #2 Current:
1. Hidden Scroll reminds me somewhat of Materialism I think he\'s a bit of a surprise to his connections to be in this position. He\'s brilliant but doesn\'t fit the profile of a Classic Winner. But I like him better than Always Dreaming.
2. Current s/b twice his morning line of 15/1. But in TAP we trust? The colt has only run on the dirt once and that was forgetable in the KY Jockey Club. Connections have put in a lot of effort trying to develop a Turf star - not. Virtually every objective measure says this one should not be in this race. Yet works indicate they are trying to teach the horse to run the first half mile rather than walk. Intuitive play
3. Code of Honor that this one has not improved on his 2 y/o top is of no concern to me. My opinion is the connections are being patient. Galileo as the Grand Sire is curious and stamps him as Classic distance capable. For me, he\'s not bettable at his 3/1 morning line. As the TG analysis points out he\'s likely to lose ground and imho on both turns so that\'s -(2-3) TG pts. meaning even a new top probably doesn\'t win.
What I\'m really curious about is Palm Beach Downs or Payson Park considered the slow & heavy workout facility because if its PBD I\'ll feel less the idiot for betting Current to show.
From a sheets reader perspective the bet has to be #11 Garter & Tie the colt is durable has been running TG 5\'s most of his two y/o campaign and is poised to run a new top as a bigger stronger faster 3 y/o. For those who like to review video replays they already know this was a live horse in the Holy Bull. The jockey was out ridden by Hernandez on winner Harvey Wallbanger. A tough trip (bad post & tactics) and the horse running the fastest at the end of the race. Good timing into Sat\'s feature.
Tavasco:
So you don’t like Code of Honor because of his outside post, so you go farther outside with a slower horse?
I do like the Current play for show and he will be on my tri tix in that spot.
As discussed in another tread I believe Pletcher is reinventing him self as a trainer and has learned to leave some juice in the lemon in his babies. He is for sure heating up.
It’s a beautiful morning in South Fl GL today.
Jerry,
In Code of Honor\'s case, isn\'t it a good sign that he just paired his 2yo top, even though he only has 4 weeks rest now going into the Fla Derby rather than your analysis that he hasn\'t improved this year? Isn\'t this what used to be referred to as an \"explosive\" pattern?\" Or is the \"pairing of life time top first start off a layoff\" more of an older horse explosive angle? Thanks
Johnnym, I\'m sorry to be unclear. I love Code Of Honor, what I was trying to convey is that 3/1 is too short of a price for me on a horse I expect to lose a couple of TG points in ground.
The \"Slower\" horse further out likely retains his 15/1 morning line price. Take a moment to watch a replay of the Holy Bull and see if you agree with me that Garter and Tie has some upside.
It wasn’t first off a lay-off. If the other race wasn’t there I would see it more positively.
tnks. Opinion on my Gleason observation?
I tend to agree with you about Hidden Scroll. Gulfstream was pretty clearly favoring speed on the rail when he broke his maiden on Pegasus day, so I would be surprised if another -2 is coming. On the other hand, something in the 0 or 1 range would not surprise me, and (especially with a rail trip) that should be enough for the victory. My concern about Hidden Scroll at a short price is that he has broken sluggishly in his first two starts. Maybe Castellano will do better out of the gate than Rosario did, but if he doesn\'t and the horses outside him are able to close the door on Hidden Scroll, things could get ugly.
I’ll use both the outside horses in exotics. G&T more do to the “eye test†from the last, and a feeling that this is the race for a FL homebred. I think a new top is likely and he should get the set up he needs.
As to the 10, if he has another forward move it puts him right there. His last clumps him in with many of the others # wise, except he’ll be a much better price.
I think there’s a good chance to get a price or possibly two underneath, but agree fully with the analysis that it’s a two horse race for the top spot and my money will be on the rail. Probably Multiple tickets keying HS and trying to find a price beneath. TAP saver likely mandatory because he is super tough this week every year regardless of what’s happened before or what happens after.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My 2 Cents.
>
> I hate betting favorites and may have a say in
> this.
> JB how certain are you of that first #?
> He had a 6 point reaction if that initial # is
> correct.
>
Given the hot pace he set in his 2nd race that was not a negative reaction and I would consider his debut figure the more representative one.
According to TG\'s Current should really jump up on dirt and that could make him contender on TG #\'s.
The person who did your Race of The Week analysis should never do another one. Or else he should tell us what pools he bets into, so that we can bet into the same ones. In 30 years, I’ve never read an analysis that made me shake my head more. If your Race Of The Week is an educational exercise, the overwhelming point to your users should’ve been: BEWARE WHEN A TRAINER RUNS A -2 FIRST TIME OUT IN JANUARY! IT’S GONNA HURT. Instead this fellow told us: “-2? Hey, no problem!â€
Incredibly, he also thought BOURBON WAR would go forward! Back to his 1!? Incredible. After all, Mark Hennig is a trainer who’s won so many Triple Crown preps.
“But Mr. Chance, you’re telling us this after the fact.†Tough. It just had to be said.
It was me, thanks for sharing.
Winner is definitely a serious derby horse
I will make it a point to never forget these words “Servis. Servis. Servisâ€
Must be the shoes! What else could explain a 43 win percentage at GP and converting a 16k claimer into a grade I winner!
I feel like an idiot. It feels a lot like the first time I faded Baffert at Saratoga type idiot. Not that it was a huge payoff but just personally embarrassed in my handicapping to let this smug asshat beat me (Servis)... I should’ve known better. ... Servis Servis Servis. ... those BC seminar words will haunt me.
Wooo Hooo!
I hear you! ,
JB believes he is in the business of horse racing, not even the actual horse breeders are in the business of horse racing according to him*, mind you, but he believes he is.
I believe, in actuality, he is in the business of gambling and peddling gambling data. A horseman he is not, though his data can be very good, very useful.
And so is the DRF. TG distills the DRF, and other data factors, for those who can’t or won’t take the time to learn to read all those little numbers at once.
Likewise sabermetrics, the numbers guys don’t play ball. They consult and get paid for it but their data analysis. They are not ball players.
*re Lasix posts I’ve felt a strong need to seriously respond to but must yet make the time. I shall.
Long time, no see.
TY
I, for one, am not a Chicken Littlep
I believe horsemanship is being lost to the quick dollar
and has been for a human generation
If Jason Servis wins the Kentucky Derby, which I don’t believe he will, then yeah, the sky falls. Our gravity pit collapses upon us. Like a black hole. A fundamental collapse of our human will, our desire at its most basic, ie, to survive.
Why don’t we all just take a few deep breaths of fresh air, early in the morning is especially fresh
Really we can do this.
The survival of American horseracing really is about the horses. Fundamentally about horsemanship. Though there is no horsemanship without horses and the better the horseman, the better the horse. Read horsemen, not veterinarians.
Who cares
Winner got a 101 beyer.
Im guessing he paired his top.
Be curious to see what JB does with the race. Track seemed to slow down quite a bit between the early state bred sprint and Restoring Hope\'s race. Pretty sure they watered before the finale.
For my education could you point out what you saw on Thorograph that would make
you think that Current would \"really jump up on dirt\"? (I realize that your
experience with TGs is apparently limited to whatever data is published in
connection with the ROTW).
I think that puts him in the lead in two-turn Beyer clubhouse. While the figure may be right, there are certainly questions about how predictive it will prove. Gulfstream seemed to be speed-friendly yesterday, and Maximum Security was allowed to set relatively slow fractions.
How late did Maximum Security get bet? I had him at 7-1 off the doubles, and he was about that in the early betting.
Slow fractions perhaps, but I’ll take 24 quarters all day over fast early slow late. Especially stretching out and more weight.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think that puts him in the lead in two-turn
> Beyer clubhouse. While the figure may be right,
> there are certainly questions about how predictive
> it will prove. Gulfstream seemed to be
> speed-friendly yesterday, and Maximum Security was
> allowed to set relatively slow fractions.
>
> How late did Maximum Security get bet? I had him
> at 7-1 off the doubles, and he was about that in
> the early betting.
It came in right at the last minute. He was 6-1 just as the horses were about to enter the gate, then dropped to 9/2 in the next flash.
The drop was interesting from several aspects:
(1) It was a significant drop, especially considering the size of the win pool (you don’t often see moves like that in big events like this).
(2) Every other horse in the field drifted higher in the last flash with the exception of Union’s Destiny, a longshot whose odds dropped modestly (42-1 to 36-1, basically just noise).
(3) He dropped well below his 7-1 Will Pays odds at the last minute rather than drifting slightly upwards towards those implied odds as would have been expected.
Agree on the question of how much to read into his performance going forward.
To my mind, this was another race that hinged on how the pace played out. The question going in was whether it was going to be a hot pace, with Hidden Scroll and the stretching sprinters -- Max Security and the two cheaper ones (Hard Belle, Bodexpress) -- all vying for the lead.
This was an especially intriguing question considering the scuttlebutt around Hidden Scroll and whether they were working to try to get him to rate, most likely because of what happened in the FOY, even though he was clearly the main speed in this race, breaking from the rail, and with three stone-cold closers (Current, Wallbanger, Bourbon War) to his immediate outside.
The entire complexion of the race changed when Hidden Scroll did in fact end up rating. And when the two longshot stretching sprinters weren’t hell-bent on the lead either, that left Max Security on the lead at a comfortable pace. #serviswithasmile
Once the half went up in 48.98 (and the quarter in 24.42), the race was all but over. The deepest closers (ie. Bourbon War) were the most compromised - there was no way they were going to be able to close into that kind of leisurely pace and make up ground on a frontrunner like Max Security who has a faster turn-of-foot and plenty left in the tank.
Hidden Scroll’s performance is tougher to gage going forward. Perhaps he fell victim to what seems to happen to so many horses when you take them out of their game and try to change their natural running style. Or maybe that -2(neg) debut in the slop was too taxing. Or maybe he just freaked in the slop that day (as many horses sometimes do, often inexplicably), and he really isn’t as good as that promising debut effort suggested.
Redboard room comment: Distracted by Dubai and Gulfstream on Saturday, and only buying the Dubai TG special, what did I miss at Santa Anita? Only that the TG Santa Anita analysis had ON TOP the $44.80 winner of the 4th, the $21.20 winner of the 5th (that double only paid you $279.20 for two bucks, and that early Pick 5 paid over $13.6k!) and recommended using the $24.20 winner in the 9th in multi-race wagers. So I regret not buying that SA product and not looking at those races, and will give TG a pass on the free ROTW because I read that race the same way and that FL Derby will ultimately go down as a fluke in my opinion with those pedestrian fractions you don\'t often see in a G1.
Thinking about the idea that he paired. If he did*:
1. You have a lightly raced horse coming off of paired 0s with 5 weeks rest.
2. A lightly raced maiden coming off of a 9-4-1 pattern.
3. Another horse that paired his 3, which was his 2 year old top.
4. Another horse with a slight move forward after reacting off of his 1.
All of these look like positive patterns, no? And they all look like they have the number power to make some noise in May (assuming they all get in).
* Adjusting a bit for ground loss. Trakus has the superfecta also-rans as running 26/30/25 feet farther, respectively.
Enough time has now passed for me to look back upon last Saturday\'s FL Derby and reflect upon any thoughts I had or forgot to consider before the race. Further, what information can be considered relevant from the race itself.
Generally, prior to the race, I thought factors other than speed figures would have a significant influence on the outcome of the race. These colts after all are not established performers. They are adolescents growing, learning and developing into race horses. Essentially, I thought some form of industry iconage (sic) would lead to the performers. Without really thinking my intuition through I focused on ownership and trainer.
#1 Hidden Scroll. Many were suspect of his huge first race because of the wet possibly sealed surface on that occasion. Balanced by the facts we mostly trust both the trainer and jockey. What I forgot was when a race horse runs off and distances itself from the field sometimes (often enough to matter) the speed figure earned doesn\'t reflect how the horse will handle the mental aspect of competing. Bottom Line - over rated. Likely to be rested and brought back this summer destined to forever be an underlay.
#2 Current. I posted in TAP we trust. If I draw a line through his Dec race @ CD and assume his FL Derby was a pair, possible a new top this typically late developing Curlin colt c/b a Belmont Stakes candidate.
#3 Harvey Wallbanger. HARVEY WALLBANGER brushed with CURRENT and was off a step slow, raced well back three wide early, moved further out around the far turn and failed to menace. Draw a line thru this effort remember horse with a deep closing running style encounter trouble more often than others. He looks to be one best off a rest no previous evidence of improving while racing?
#4 Bourbon War. IMO, more evidence that the Remsen is overrated year after year. BOURBON WAR was unhurried early in the two-path, raced three then four wide around the far turn, and improved position without a solid bid. Sounds like the description of a good plodder. I think it can be argued that running the TG 1 in the GP Alw will take some more recovery time. NCIS Rule #11, Never bet a Hennig trainee if the spotlight is on it.
#5 Everfast. Somewhat of an alternator by pattern but seemingly not sturdy. Newly popular rider Landeros, rode as if he were a contender he was not. Another who will probably get some rest before reappearing in KY vs lesser.
#6 Hard Belle. UGH! Like, I think it was TGJB, mentioned recently, the best way to get a good table for lunch.
#7 Maximum Security. None s/b shocked this one won the race. But for the colt to be co favorite to win the KY Derby might be an over reaction. His win Saturday was not as surprising as his sire New Years Day, win in the BC Juvenile in what 2013? Simple faster than most with a healthy improving line. No need to cloud things up by arguing he was going two turns for the first time. Failing to realize that Hidden Scroll might not be a pace factor was a costly oversight.
#8 Bodexpress. Once again, too much weight attributed to class. The overlooked key here for me was a son of Bodemeister not a sprint influence runs a top in a sprint could be expected to pair or improve at a route especially when you note that it was Hidden Scroll who smoked him in the wet at his 1st effort at a mile. Add in he was 70/1. Absolutely irrelevant that he is a maiden. Every season a couple of maidens jump up in the Derby preps keying healthy scores. It disappoints me that I landed on the wrong long shot. Going forward, my assessment is that its about 60/40 that the effort triggers a bounce but with a trainer sure to be discounted and a price likely to hold up he will be on my Derby tickets.
#9 Code of Honor. CODE OF HONOR bumped with UNION\'S DESTINY at the start, advanced moving in from the three-path after six furlongs, was in a full drive cutting the corner past the quarter-pole, shied out sharply from left-hand pressure outside the sixteenth-pole swapping leads back and forth, and held for the show. Not the first time this colt has done some bumping at the start or ran erratically in the stretch. I don\'t know what to make of that but JR didn\'t lose to much ground. I\'m assuming he earned something close to a pair of his top. I still value the Galileo influence and think the colt has an upside.
#10 Union\'s Destiny. A regression after his previous jump up wasn\'t surprising. All in all, it turned out not to be the right race for this one. The optimism of the connections is somewhat understandable and I\'m a fan of sire Union Rags. I put him in my horses to watch looking forward to his next or next next outing.
#11 Garter and Tie. As disappointed as I was with the jockey in the Holy Bull I was even more disappointed in the FL Derby. Bottom line - I was wrong the colt did not improve as I thought his line suggested. GARTER AND TIE raced widest early, remained well out in the track driven hard past the three-eighths,and had nothing left soon after that. As a pace handicapping aficionado It pains me the jockey took a colt with a P running style and attended the pace albeit modest. I continue to believe that this colt is better than its last two races. Classic contender he\'s NOT.
As has been pointed out previously - Class handicapping is considered dubious by many, especially on this site. MCL 16K vs MSW 80K, or winners vs non winners meaningful distinctions in general but in the end, if you take the time, details i.e. specifics are key to finding treasure.