TG the best with 3yo patterns at this time of year. That\'s 2 weeks in a row. Toddy and BMS.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Should get a very good figure. Pletcher horse maybe best of all. Much heavier and much faster than the G2 older horses.
Time is in doubt.
Winners odd at 49 to 1 with 2 minutes to post goes off at 22 to 1???
Matt C from TVG touted the horse a few minutes out--the odds dropped after that. Anytime TVG gives out a horse the odds fall.
Carruthers said right before the race that the exotics were more reflective of a 15-1 shot. The exacta payoff came back generous for a 22-1 over the second choice.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I was watching the NBC sports feed this morning and noticed it.. Knew nothing of the Matt C. TVG opinion. Did notice a 12-1 morning line though.
If bettors listen to, and use, the TVG feed before wagering, they would not have enough money left to pay their cable or internet bill.
Although she may not be the worst, Gaby Gaudet, at “GOLFstreamâ€, babbles on until she selects 75% of the field. Best to hit the MUTE button.
Based on the double probables from Serengeti Empress, I projected By My Standards at 21.4 to 1.
Based on ground loss relative to the winner, Spinoff should clearly get the best TG fig in the race. If you figure Sueno and Country House ran about what they have been running, I would guess Spinoff\'s fig should be similar to what War of Will had been running. We\'ll see how the timing issue comes out.
Something happened to War of Will\'s hind end a couple of strides out of the gate. Craig Milkowski has a picture on his Twitter feed.
Jerry Bailey pointed the misstep out on NBC sports. Also the horse bled.
A lesson in figure making, malfunctioning teletimers in horse racing, and the projection method.
Jerry, I am very curious your take on all of this when you have time before the Ky Derby. Curious if anyone thinks that the Feb 16th races were figured incorrectly (Beyer and TG) and need to be changed? I don\'t have Timeform numbers but curious what they did as well. Thanks.
EDIT: From Watchmaker\'s column, (Update - late Sunday morning, Beyer Associates boosted the figure for By My Standards’s maiden win from a 78 to an 86)
Feb. 16th, FG, R7: By My Standards, MSW, 1 1/16 miles, 1:45.04. TG Fig: 7. Beyer Fig: 78. REVISED MUCH TOO LATE: 86.
Feb. 16th, FG, R9: Silver Dust, G3 Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, 1:45.46. TG Fig: 1.5. Beyer Fig: 97.
_________
March 23, FG, R10: Core Beliefs, G2 Stakes Older, 1 1/8 miles, 1:51.36. TG Fig: TBD. Beyer fig: \"Came up 83\" according to Randy Moss. \"Projected a 94.\"
March 23, FG, R13: By My Standards, G2 3yo Stakes, 1 1/8 miles, 1:49.53 in equibase chart. Randy Moss states 1:49.86 is what they used after computer timing it. TG fig: TBD. Beyer fig: 97
The Timeform guys talked about the Mineshaft on their DRF Pacecast after the race. They said that the pace was so slow (25.8, 50.6) that using the final time to make a figure would be useless. They used projection instead.
That being the case, the final time would be useless in making figs for other races on the card.
So now we are projecting figures off of prior projected figures (in the case of Beyer at least). Can you say self-fulfilling prophecy?
There is art and science (math) in figure making. Too much art happening for my taste in the Beyer case at least for the older horses. Moss called the 83 calculated fig \"highly improbable.\" So let\'s make it what we want it to be. Slippery slope here .....
That\'s about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.
Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least seven other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1MTP and figured to take big drops as well.
Below is the comparison of DD-Implied, 1MTP and Final Odds for each entry.
Interesting to note that other than a couple of minor moves down, By My Standards was the ONLY one that actually took big (really big) last minute action, so much so that he actually ended up going off at his DD-implied odds, which at the time I thought was virtually impossible for any of those entries b/c they were all SO much higher than their DD-implied odds, unless the \"smart money\" laid off the favorite completely in the last minute, which didn\'t happen (he stayed right at his 4/5 last-minute odds).
_______ DD___ 1MTP____ FL
1______ 17_____ 36_____ 32
2______ 29_____ 57_____ 65
3______ 12_____ 18_____ 15
4______ 5.2____ 6.4_____ 7.8
5______ 23_____ 40_____ 22.5
6______ 1.7____ 0.9_____ 0.8
7______ 35_____ 67_____ 50
8______ 5.4____ 5.4_____ 6.4
9______ 18_____ 27_____ 23
10_____ 4.1____ 3.8_____ 4.3
11_____ 21_____ 40_____ 33
Rocky, outstanding!!
Can you confirm anything similar with Street Band in FG Oaks? She was 20-1 (best of my recollection) when I left my table to go to the wagering machine at approx 2 mtp. 10-1 off odds.
If too time consuming, I understand.
Richie -- didn\'t see the 20-1, I took a snapshot as they were getting in the gate and she was already 10-1. There was some last minute movement, but it was all on the chalk, who went from 3/5 in the gate to 1.5/5, which was right in line with her DD-implied odds. The other entries all drifted higher in the last flash, included Street Band, although she did drift up the least, going off at 10.9-1.
I think I had a similar exchange with TGJB back when I first started reading this board. I have two thoughts:
Milkowski (I think on a different Pacecast) said he tends to downplay figures from very slow paced races in his handicapping.
As TGJB has said, when you are doing projections off of prior figures, the quality of your prior figures is of critical importance. That has been one of his principal criticisms of the Ragozin figs.
All serious figure makers use some form of what is generally referred to as the projection method, which simply means using the actual horses that ran, as opposed to pars.
I assume folks know this, and why.
Then again....