So for me this is the 2nd weekend in row where the 3YO horse that saved ground Won! Code of Honor. Tacitus. And almost for Mind Control.
Irad Ortiz is the guy now. However did he move a little late last week on Bourbon and yesterday on Win? I will honest I never figure Win that far off the pace. Tacitus was on his inside left saving ground. I bet their figures will be identical.
Bill Mott is a Hall of Fame Trainer with impeccable reputation. Mott had an incredible run with Paulsen in the day when he had to use Paulsens Vet. Are we seeing something similar with Juddmonte? Note I didnt say anything was out of bounds. I\'m also well aware this is a huge operation with a lot of good horses.
Pletcher may finally have someone on the Derby trail? Usually always winning this Prep that Prep etc. Not this year. Also Vino won buuuuut. Lugged in and out. Not sure yet. Audible is a dud. His barn depth and hard work produces wins and a good percentage. Those 2YO he was supposed to be unleashing when Fall Belmont opened never happened. The crash and burn 3YO style may have many taking notice. Winstar China horse spreading it around and same with Tabor and Co
My takeaways from Saturday.
There are a ton of fast 1-turn 3 year-olds out there.
Haikal is the real deal. Don\'t know what number it gets but think Vino might have slipped into negative territory, and that race compares very well. Haikal got his last fraction a full second quicker than the others in the blanket finish, and the same last quarter as Vino.
Much Better also ran huge. Would have had 2nd easily in the Tom Fool.
Tacitus compares well to Flameaway\'s race. Won\'t get as good a number as Haikal, but it\'ll be a big jump. Maybe FTL, but off the layoff very impressive.
WWW may have star potential around 1 turn. Widest by far - and 60 ft. farther than Flame ran in his. Makes we wonder why we haven\'t seen Alwaysmining on the trail.
Do Share ran a hole in the wind against some reasonably fast horses.
Per the title of your thread, Much Better is arguably a second stringer. Pioneer of The Nile out of a Vindication Mare not shabby but probably won\'t get the needed points.
The Rebel is shaking out to be really curious. 75% of the original points awarded to each of the two new heats (if the race fills). Complicated by most of the San Felipe field shipping in. I wonder how they split them up or maybe the locals just scratch.
Should the Bafferts end up in the same heat the exacta might grab me.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My takeaways from Saturday.
>
> Haikal is the real deal. Don\'t know what number
> it gets but think Vino might have slipped into
> negative territory, and that race compares very
> well. Haikal got his last fraction a full second
> quicker than the others in the blanket finish, and
> the same last quarter as Vino.
>
> Much Better also ran huge. Would have had 2nd
> easily in the Tom Fool.
>
> Do Share ran a hole in the wind against some
> reasonably fast horses.
Pace is seldom a focus of discussion on this board, but one thing to keep in mind that may temper the enthusiasm for the performances of both Haikal and Do Share is that on paper, both the Tom Fool and the Gotham were absolutely LOADED with speed.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that a fast pace would indeed unfold of course, but as we now know it to be the case in both races, that meant that the speed horses (almost every entry) were compromised, and the deep closers -- Haikal and Do Share were pretty much the only closers in each race -- were the biggest beneficiaries and figured to put forth their best relative efforts given the optimum pace conditions for their running style, even considering the normally highly speed-favoring Aqueduct main track.
Going forward, whatever figures Haikal and Do Share earned in those races should be looked at in the context of those favorable pace conditions. All else being equal, neither horse is likely to reproduce as good an effort, relatively speaking, without the benefit of the same ideal pace conditions they faced to in the Tom Fool and Gotham Saturday.
Agree on Much Better, given the suicidal early fractions he set (but it\'s Baffert in New York, so who knows going forward).
I haven’t even looked at the Aqu Sat charts yet, but with 4 horses together at the wire it’s hard to believe the Gotham figures will be strong. Thinking 4-5 level, with weight and ground swings.
Meanwhile, what was Mike Smith doing, exactly...
An awful and stupid ride. And poor Knicks Go, getting messed up in that as well...
You\'re right, of course, about the pace and the number. My read on the race was in comparison to Vino Rosso\'s race, not the speed collapsing. That\'s why Haikal\'s closing fraction, and in comparison to Vino\'s matters as far as anticipating what the horse can do going farther (as compared to the others).
If if were only the internal numbers, I might agree. You could say the speed horses didn\'t run their typical number - and thus downgrade the winners. But we have the older horse 1-turn race for a comparison. And both still look good.
Was at Park Ozone Saturday enjoying some overpriced cerveza frio and
some stakes racing and of course Rocky nailed the contested pace/deep closer
scenario which was also at least partially evident in the Stymie and certainly
in the Busher.
Additional Observations: Yes, Do Share benefited from a pace meltdown, but his
gallop out (which some may contend began at the 1/16th pole) was very strong.
Was fun to hear (about to become former) apprentice Gutierrez whooping and
hollering on the way back to the winner\'s circle celebrating his first graded
stakes score.
In the Busher, Oxy Lady got the worst of things under Castellano and may have
been best. The TG 43 she posted in the Tempted as a 2YO (if she can
work back towards that #) would make her competitive with the better 3YO
fillies, but she was unfortunately vanned off after the race.
Should we be paying attention to horses that ran on 2/3 at AQ? Winning post
(field size): 3(5), 1(6), 3(5), 7(9), 1(6), 1(10), 6(7), 1(9).
Side note I was surprised how well Instagrand rated.
Considering it was his first race in like 6 mths. Third career start and against a decent Stakes field, in retrospect it wasnt aweful but it wasnt Superstar great. This is a good prospect. He was under a stiff drive to get going in the turn. Was it inexperience or something else. I wouldnt force him for the Derby unless he gives a sign of taking another shot in 4 weeks.
I\'m surprised if the figure is a 4 or 5. Mind Control was coming off a 2. Saved ground and ran I thought. This would also have the Stymie very slow. Which I dont think was super fast but...I\'m not a figure maker so I will keep an open mind and wait.
Instagrand came in with a 5& 4.3 going 1w on the lead
He ran widest and cost him a place.
Hollendorfer has a way of jumping up on Derby Day.
Since we are in the business of predicting the future I will play him to move forward on his next out.
I would agree. But he has to run again and run well to qualify and get there. Expensive yearling who might have future.
For what it\'s worth, Maggie Wolfendale commented in the paddock that Instagrand looked like a sprinter to her.
Long time away from the track, pretty decent field, first time going two turns, first time shipping cross country, considering the circumstances he equated himself pretty well. Interested to see how he comes out of it? He was all out and appeared to be ran hard. I question if added distance will be to his benefit? Seems more Pat Day than Derby, but with all the hype surrounding this one I’d be shocked if he doesn’t get another shot to earn his way into the gate. You’re probably right, next out will be better. Is the thought that he paired his two year top?
Do not remember where I saw it, but I was under the impression that if a trainer entered two horses in the Rebel and it was split, that each horse would go to a different race, so there is no chance they end up in the same heat if the race splits. In addition, I believe the winners would also get 75% of the original points, so the winners of each heat would get 37.5 points.
Ask P-Dub
I would guess at worse he paired considering the wide trip and weight.
So I ended up using the same variant for the three stakes at a mile, which made the Gotham a couple points faster than I thought (Mind Control paired), and the Busher collapse (winner paired). But I\'m going to be reviewing them after a bunch run back. Vino Rosso ran back to his top, that one was easy.
Thanks!!