I’m pretty sure after reading the ROW it’s a Jerry Brown document.....
It’s very cold upstate for March and I’ll admit to a non life threatening case of
Derby Fever. Far from the Covello version that used to appear here on New Years Day😎
I have a sporting interest in the Cross Country Pick 5 tomorrow, it’s a great sequence and kudo’s to NYRA for reaching out to 2 different tracks and opening up the bet. I’m told Twin Spires and other ADW accounts can access it as opposed to
NYRA BETS & NYS outlets only.
Oaklawn will be under water tomorrow for the Honeybee and there is a huge off track move up in that heat, the Florida Oaks looks formful but the TB Derby & Busher have some pricey opportunities.
That said I will be singling Instagrand in the Gotham, 180 degree difference of opinion from the ROW. Most that know me even a little also know that I’m as anti even money as a person can ever be.... If I were to make a saver play it would be with Mind Control. Brady doesn’t do it for me. Entered in a MCL first out, claimed and entered on the turf in his next 2 starts, not fast enough to go with Instagrand early. With Baffert, anything is possible, especially outside of Cali, we will leave that conversation alone. My wagering level has still not recovered from his 2017 Belmont Stakes Day performance which pretty much nailed the coffin for MOI betting any real money in this game anymore................
Instagrand was sold as a yearling for the average sale price of Awesome Again’s he was pin hooked for 6x the sale price as a 2 yr old. I don’t get it? The dam’s side is no big deal. Precocious indeed, 4,5 stakes caliber TG 2 yr old numbers for sure. Remember Jimbo and the decade running debate with JB about Cali numbers? For arguments sake say you can shave a point maybe a 1.5 off them? Even if you can’t, call them solid numbers. Awesome Again’s TG sire index improves 3 points from 2-3, that alone puts him right there. Say they are a bit faster with average improvement? You don’t need me to do the math.
Hollendorfer Factor:
He is good bringing them off the bench. Choose this spot before the SA situation hit the fan, probably ducking 2 Baffert’s in a short heat for points?
He is on the very short list of trainers I still consider horsemen..... 4 claimers at GG, BC OR TC this guy can flat out train a race horse.
I’m very curious as to the ownership group and if JH had input into the purchase?
Seems like a crazy number to me.
Lastly he has a 414 Tommy for the distance, no allusions of grandeur for this one going 10f on the first Saturday in May. In this spot he towers over this field
via Tomillison, has a trainer that choose this spot for points before SA blew up and IMHO is the best horse in the race by a lot. Curious to see if they just let him run or try to rate?
Either way it’s an Frank D. Single in the X-Country 5 and NYRA 4 or 5.
Good luck and I hope maybe we can stir some REAL handicapping banter as opposed to the teenage girl’s face book page this string has become?
Frank D.
Into Mischief, not Awesome Again.
MY BAD,
Looking at too many sire index’s over too many brandy’s....
Data and opinion remain the the same,
To get the pick 5 TG sheets would I have to buy each race individually?
Thanks John
Frankie my main question would be what is a teenage girl\'s FB page really like?
Looking at the late P4, which I might play if I\'m awake, and definitely will
not play if asleep. Might even take advantage of the tropical heat wave and
make a live appearance.
My rough outline would be to spread in the Tom Fool, maybe tossing out the two
outside runners.
Go all out against 8/5 Sunny Ridge in the Stymie. 0/2 on Park Ozone\'s new main
track, including an uninspiring effort in his last at 1/2. Liking Stan the Man
and Title Ready there.
Agree with all you\'ve said about Instagram, which is apparently also favored by
teenage girls. (R. Kelly alert: that\'s two mentions of teenage girls in one
post.) I guess I can protect with him at a likely very short price, but
will lean on two others: Haikal for 29% KMac and Tikhvin Flew for 31% Asmussen.
Without extended pedigree research, I like the breeding on the latter for
bigger and better things at longer distances. And there is no need to toss the
Baffert/Smith even if his post odds should be nowhere near the ML.
Can go deep in the Busher, and KMac\'s very well bred Enliven is 15/1, gets an
equipment change, and comes in off a very sharp best of 84 workout on March 1.
Can envision casting a wide net here, using six or seven of these fillies in
the gimmick.
Yes, Johnnym. But you can add 4 more races, a create-a-card 9 races not 10 not 8, same track day, for the cost of $25.
On the analysis:
I understand the Baffert factor, but are there stats for the size of his jump-ups with 3 year olds shipping into NY? This one has the slowest top in the field, so would need to move forward even to be in the discussion. We talking 2 points, 4 points....?
Likes to be near the pace, and would Instra grinds him into dust (or maybe I\'m just trying to feel good about leaving him out).
TY Alan
Hope all is well