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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Tavasco on January 26, 2019, 10:26:03 AM

Title: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Tavasco on January 26, 2019, 10:26:03 AM
Hidden Scroll just won the 4th race race @ GP on Pegasus day. I suppose we will have some eye catching performances in the upcoming stakes races but Hidden Scroll set the bar pretty high.

I suggest watching this one going forward. In this, his first start he went 1:342 for a mile and looked a lot like his sire Hard Spun doing so.

Hello Florida Derby and 2019\'s Florida shooting star.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: TreadHead on January 26, 2019, 11:32:53 AM
Very impressive win, just needs points.  And with the high likelihood of slop at the Derby these days, would definitely be one to watch for.  When that half went up in 44.2 I didn\'t think there was any way, then he won by like 15
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: boardedup on January 26, 2019, 03:08:02 PM
Super Impressive, I’m riding shotgun on this guy’s band wagon.  One of, if not the best effort of the winter so far imo.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: ajkreider on January 26, 2019, 05:13:17 PM
Want to see it again. Wet tracks do funny things.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Topcat on January 27, 2019, 03:12:42 AM
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hidden Scroll just won the 4th race race @ GP on
> Pegasus day. I suppose we will have some eye
> catching performances in the upcoming stakes races
> but Hidden Scroll set the bar pretty high.
>
> I suggest watching this one going forward. In
> this, his first start he went 1:342 for a mile and
> looked a lot like his sire Hard Spun doing so.
>
> Hello Florida Derby and 2019\'s Florida shooting
> star.


Boy, did \"the media\" bury this one . . . the works holdout of the young season.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Flighted Iron on January 27, 2019, 05:21:21 PM
Beyer fig @104. They said it\'s the highest debut fig at a mile or beyond in the last 10 years.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: boardedup on January 27, 2019, 06:06:35 PM
Hard to keep that quite..  Wondering what the TG number will come back at?  What do you think, goes forward from here in FOY, FL Derby and on to KY assuming he stays healthy?  He’ll need points as was mentioned above but strictly from a Beyer stand point 104 is already fast enough to get in the gate in early May. I’d think two preps though.

His dad took ‘em a long way in the derby, maybe this is the Hard Spun that gets it done.  Could be a banner 3 year old spring for PA racing & roots. As dumb as it is to project out when you’re still three weeks before Valentine’s Day, but hey I got a good feeling about this year for some reason...
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Flighted Iron on January 27, 2019, 07:30:38 PM
Likely prep schedule for sure.Points will be a byproduct if he stays well.It\'s a bit unsettling seeing a horse run that fast so soon. Wish them all the best!!
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Uptown502 on February 08, 2019, 08:42:54 PM
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beyer fig @104. They said it\'s the highest debut
> fig at a mile or beyond in the last 10 years.


Do you know the others that debuted with 100+? I’m interested to see the names and how they ended up.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Flighted Iron on February 10, 2019, 02:42:12 PM
I did a little checking. I found very little historical info.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Tavasco on February 13, 2019, 11:06:38 PM
Uptown502 wrote: Do you know the others that debuted with 100+? I’m interested to see the names and how they ended up.

Uncle Mo, I think, 2010 Saratoga.

May never have run sub 100. Has not done much of anything wrong. Has the misfortune of hooking Game On Dude in the 2011 Breeders Cup, his last race (Won by Drosselmeyer)




As a side note - Trainer W. Ward will probably have the 2nd choice (legitimately so imo) a Euro-immigrant in Saturday\'s John Battaglia Stakes @ Turfway Park. I, for one, love the next out after The Breeders Cup Juvenile angle and The Mackem Bullet (IRE) proved it again last out.

Now, it could be hard a get a price as high as the 2/1 morning line? Oh Yea the favorite is (speak of the devil) next out from the BCJ. Wondering how he will handle the artificial surface - not all do!
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: johnnym on February 14, 2019, 01:45:07 PM
Haskin wrote he got a -2
I will play the bounce
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Molesap on February 14, 2019, 09:25:35 PM
Not sure if these are all of them, but I am pretty sure I got the ones below correct with their Beyer century topping debuts. By the way, Uncle Mo debuted with a TG of 0 and rattled off two more 0\'s as a 2YO. He peaked as a 3YO in his penultimate race before the Breeder’s Cup at a -4 in the Kelso (118 Beyer). Of Uncle Mo’s eight lifetime starts, he went below 100 on the Beyer scale four times. In terms of the list - that is some pretty good company although Maclean\'s Music retired after debut.

Some Century Topping Debut Beyers
Maclean\'s Music 114
Formal Gold 112
Hook and Ladder 110
Discreet Cat 106
Kelly Kip 104
Uncle Mo 102
Holy Bull 101
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: dglass2232 on February 15, 2019, 09:34:11 AM
I believe JUSTIFY ran a 102 BSF in the debut. Bill Mott had a colt, KHOZAN, I believe he was a sib  to ROYAL DELTA who ran a triple digit in the debut and got injured and retired on Derby Trail. Al Stall had a colt, BIND that I believe dropped a 105 BSF in the debut a few years ago AT FG.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Molesap on February 15, 2019, 10:45:13 AM
Jeez, how could I forget Justify\'s 104 in debut at 7f at SA?
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Tavasco on February 15, 2019, 10:48:52 AM
johnnym Wrote:
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> Haskin wrote he got a -2
> I will play the bounce

Second races of the triple digit maiden group

Formal Gold - Won an allowance by 6+ @.30

Hook and Ladder - Ran 2nd in an ALW @ Hol while getting 7 lbs from the the winner (Unlimited Value) and apparently running about as fast as he did in his debut

Discreet Cat - Came back to win in Dubai, the second of six (6) straight wins.

Kelly Kip - Won his second race. But was his debut, a Mcl, really a triple digit beyer. Looks like he didn\'t run fast until the Sanford.

Holy Bull - Won his second race by 7 lengths.

Justify - Retired unbeaten

Khozan - Ran twice winning both

Bind - Another who ran 2nd in its second race. This time @ 1/9. This colt also ran several fast ones but like Holy Bull and Kelly Kip the equibase # in the debut suggests a double digit Beyer?

The prospective field for the Fountain of Youth looks strong enough to avoid odds on come post time. Regardless - Statistically, playing for a bounce looks questionable or on the other hand this profile is due for a bouncer.

I\'m not ready to bet against Hidden Scroll yet but have to look beyond him to find any value. In his debut there was that barely perceptible hesitation coming out of the turn and then he just kept to business with no challenge.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: ~mike on February 15, 2019, 12:22:28 PM
My memory said Pulpit debuted with a triple digit BSF and I found this at The Philadelpia Inquirer when looking it up:

\"In the 25-year history of the Beyer Speed Figures being published, out of hundreds of thousands of horses, Justify is only the 18th  to begin his career with three consecutive triple-digit figures and just the second in that group to run in the Derby.

\"In 1997, Pulpit came to the Derby with five straight triple-digit numbers. He got a 105 Beyer in the Derby, a number that could win some years, but not that year. Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit and Free House, part of a spectacular 3-year-old class, finished 1-2-3, with Pulpit fourth.\"

https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/justify-kentucky-derby-bob-baffert-experience-beyer-speed-figure-american-pharoah-20180502.html
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Fairmount1 on February 15, 2019, 03:04:47 PM
dglass2232 wrote:  Bill Mott had a colt, KHOZAN, I believe he was a sib to ROYAL DELTA who ran a triple digit in the debut and got injured and retired on Derby Trail.

Khozan was a Pletcher production.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: johnnym on February 15, 2019, 05:27:28 PM
Thanks for post Tavasco
Even with that history he still won’t get my $$
Especially with the big class jump and the odds I think he will be.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: BitPlayer on February 19, 2019, 06:06:21 AM
Olympic Runner, who got a also got a front-running win on the rail in the mud on Pegasus day, came back to run last in the Southwest yesterday.
Title: Re: Hidden Scroll
Post by: Silver Charm on February 19, 2019, 04:31:57 PM
This horse might be a complete freak, time will tell. One of the more telling things in the race is the race caller with a shocked tone said \"the half is posted in 44 and whatever\". Notice he used the word \"posted\" as in dont believe he is going that fast that easily.

The time isnt in question here. He loved the surface. Does he love dry dirt in his face when he cant get the leas? The horse in the Holy Bull had all the #\'s but had also never been challenged on the lead. Third at 1-5? I need to see more and if I miss this at 9-5 or something then I missed. #notformenow