Considering the results of the AP Million and the Bev D and considering the likelyhood that the same puzzle will be presented to us on BC day, have you any new insights into how best to approach those races where much of the information is in \"euros\"? I just cannot fathom the performance of Necklace. Not in that field.
I\'ve found that checking the ante-post and live odds on the Sporting Page site (particularly Coral) provides some incredibly accurate and useful handicapping information for the Breeder\'s Cup turf and Arlington Million.
I first noticed it in the BC filly and mare turf race when the Jimmy Toner horse with Bailey won at 7-2(?) and had been the overwhelming 4-5 favorite for the entire week prior to the race in the European ante-post pool.
Last year, Six Perfections was 5-2 in the overseas ante-post BC Mile betting at the same time that she was 20-1 in our BC Futures pool.
And in this year\'s Arlington Million, Kickin Kris was the clear 7-2 favorite in the ante-post pools (with Epalo at 6 and everyone else in double digits); but in the live betting (some 6 hours prior to post), Powerscourt came from nowhere to tie Epalo in the odds as co-favorites...duplicating what eventually happened at Arlington. I wonder how much of that was from Europe?
The other factor that is particularly helpful is when the Europeans do not like one of their horses (like the Aiden O\'Brian\'s on occassion), they are yet to be wrong. So even if you cannot find one to bet, you can still profit from eliminations.
Thanks. I love following money trails. But where can I find this \"Sporting Page\" site you refer to?
http://www.sportinglife.com/
Enjoy!
I noticed the same thing w/Kicken Kris. And Magistretti was around 9-1, as opposed to the 25-1 at AP.
My understanding is that begining with the inaugural, Euro Bookmakers have made large bets in the US BC pools to reduce their exposure & lock in profits on certain horses. This yr I\'m wondering how many quality horses are actually going to make the trip. From what I\'ve read, the long trip to an unknown track with a very short turf stretch has already caused top outfits to make alternative plans.
The turf stretch at Lone Star is no shorter than the stretch at Del Mar, Santa Anita, Gulfstream, or any other track with a one mile dirt oval and 7/8 mile turf course.
The Euros will show up and they\'ll win 2 of the , it\'s like taking candy from a baby with the basically sorry group of turf horses now running in U.S. Grade 1s.
Recent Euro BC records
2003 - 3 for 3
2002 - 3 for 3 (Starine a Euro import)
2001 - 3 for 3 (Val Royal a Euro import)