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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Ace on December 25, 2018, 02:24:07 PM

Title: Opening Day
Post by: Ace on December 25, 2018, 02:24:07 PM
It\'s the traditional day after Christmas opening day tomorrow. Thanks for the free data, I\'m going to be there in person to get that awesome calendar.

In the 7th race I am partial to the #8 Fight On.  He just might have a forward move in him. I\'ll protect with the heavy favorite River Boyne and will include Combatant who has sure earned a lot of money with only a maiden win. Merry Christmas to all.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: skitimber on December 25, 2018, 03:00:48 PM
That would have to be some forward move, but good luck.  And in the 9th, Axelrod?  Another negative or the X in an 0, 2 (1&3/4) X??  At 10-1, I think I\'ll find out.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: Ace on December 25, 2018, 03:20:43 PM
Nero is my bet in the Malibu. I actually had a Ky Derby Future bet on him in Vegas at 100-1 based on a good performance in the San Vincente, but he got pushed aside for Justify, just like McKenzie did. I might get 10-1 tomorrow.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: Silver Charm on December 25, 2018, 06:28:40 PM
I dont trust PARX negative #\'s someplace else. I\'m not saying the # is incorrect just the ability to repeat elsewhere. He is a price.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: Fairmount1 on December 25, 2018, 07:32:51 PM
Silver,

Excellent point.  

So the fastest TG numbers in the race are from:

McKinzie, Parx.
Axelrod, Parx.
Axelrod, Parx.
Still Having Fun.  Belmont.
Kanthaka, SA.  

Must be that horses really like the track surface at Parx.  (Note, I too am not doubting the numbers....just pointing out that anyone with half a brain can figure out that there is likely a reason the fastest numbers are at Parx.  Anyone who doesn\'t think we need uniform rules is a clueless clown to borrow a term a former poster was apt to use).  

I\'ll take the Baffert that ran 1\'s at routes when I never thought he was a router in the first place.  

Long layoff and ran well first out and off another break.  This time he is First time gelding as TG prominently notes.  I\'ll take a longer Baffert price than heavily favored McKinzie as the one to play here but confidence level low.  Just making a pick in a race where there was a bigger point to be made.  Ax Man with Baffert magic for me.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: jbelfior on December 26, 2018, 05:10:40 AM
Happy Holidays to all:

Ax Man-Nero-Kanthaka.


Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: big18741 on December 26, 2018, 08:41:26 AM
Looking at Nero to move forward here off the easy pair up prep.

Trying to figure out the pace but it doesn\'t seem crazy fast so Talamo should be right on it or stalking.
Title: Re: Opening Day
Post by: grinder on December 26, 2018, 12:35:36 PM
Point taken about performance figures earned at Parx. However, the last out figure earned by Axelrod (which was not run at Parx) is still faster than any figures run by the aforementioned runner. And as he will be a better price, I will be keying him. Good Luck.
Title: Re: Opening Day - Race 8
Post by: Tavasco on December 26, 2018, 03:38:57 PM
With a couple of minutes to post only Dabster & Gift Box price not beaten down by the crowd. Gift box @5/1 with BOM worth a try.
Title: Re: Opening Day - Race 8
Post by: skitimber on December 26, 2018, 03:44:37 PM
Nice call on Gift Box.

Decided against Axelrod in the next simply because of the  0 2 X possibility.

Still having Fun interesting across the board at 20-1 or even over 10-1.  My suspicion, the exacts and trifecta here will be decent.

Good luck to all.
Title: PS Is Nero really 22-1??
Post by: skitimber on December 26, 2018, 03:47:24 PM
Nero and Still having fun, each across the board and in exotics.
Title: Re: PS Is Nero really 22-1??
Post by: Tavasco on December 26, 2018, 04:08:36 PM
Mike Smith from post 13 seems to be not much of a concern for opening day crowd. The breeders cup classic even less. It was cuppy and 1+1/4 they insist. Makes the race very interesting.
Title: Re: PS Is Nero really 22-1??
Post by: Tavasco on December 26, 2018, 04:20:29 PM
Geez - Smart crowd!