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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: BitPlayer on November 06, 2018, 06:25:56 AM

Title: TG Figs for Princess Rooney
Post by: BitPlayer on November 06, 2018, 06:25:56 AM
TGJB -

I am wondering whether you have the figs for the Princess Rooney (GP 6/30/18) marked for review.  I notice that the race features a 5-point new top for Stormy Embrace (to a negative 3) and a 3.5-point new top for Rich Mommy.  It\'s not surprising that those horses have not run back to those tops, but you appear to have that race much faster than Beyer, whereas the figs for the Smile Sprint (the race after the Princess Rooney on the card) seem to line up with Beyer\'s.

More generally, do you have any way of systematically marking certain races for review, either because some horses ran unusually well or because of a significant discrepancy with Beyer?  For example, also on the BC card, the negative 3.5 that Always Sunshine ran in July is more than two points faster than he has run in two years and looks much slower on Beyer\'s figures.
Title: Re: TG Figs for Princess Rooney
Post by: TGJB on November 06, 2018, 11:05:39 AM
First of all, every time we do a race where\'s there\'s a significant chance the figure is in doubt we put it on a list, and go back and review it after about a month, and then again at weekly intervals, until we know it\'s solid. I\'ve had races on that list for months.

The Rooney was not one of them. The two you mentioned that ran big new tops did go back after that. The third filly has only run once since, on poly, poorly (and she has a screw in her leg, we looked at her at the July sale). Of the other five, four went forward, and one hasn\'t run back. There\'s no reason to think that one is wrong.

On another note, if Jake does BC Saturday by-the-book (literally, Ragozin\'s book, see \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archives here), and uses a one size fits all approach for the dirt races, it will produce some hilarious figures.