May go down as one of the worst of all time. Derby Winner Always Dreaming, then Preakness winner Cloud Computing and Belmont Winner Tapwrit all have not won another race. Zilch.
McCraken has been officially declared not what we thought he was gonna be. Derby runnerup Lookin at Lee has an allowance win on his resume. Classic Empire is retired with more Ocala Stimulants in him than 3YO wins. Irish War Cry is just trying to finish a race. Patch with his earlier Allowance win has more wins than the rest of this bunch using just one eye....
To be fair West Coast became a very good horse. I assume he is still in training. Practical Joke was a decent Miler and Battle of Mideay won BC Mile and was given the usual Winstar bums rush to Stud before he could spit box and cool out.
Glad to see a couple of New York Bred olders step up and fill a massice void yesterday. Diversify is gelding and he isnt going anywhere. Powerful effort yesterday.
I think Battle of Midway is back in training due to fertility issues.
Interesting post on several fronts SC.
I feel like one of them is free bait for me so I\'ll bite on the West Coast front.
Yesterday it was reported that West Coast may go straight to the BC Classic off only workouts. If that doesn\'t work out (pun intended), then they will point to the Clark followed by a run in the Pegasus. The horse has not raced since Dubai in March. I\'ve documented how it will be interesting to see how Baffert does this year based on last year\'s BC results (lack of winners at Del Mar).
Here is the quote from the owner and he hits the nail on the head: \"Bob is an absolute magician in getting a horse to a race off works,\" West told BloodHorse. \"He does it better than anyone else I have ever seen in my life.\"
A magician he says....hmmm....interesting metaphor to call a horse trainer of Baffert\'s level a magician. I wonder why he would want to bring the horse in off works. SC mentions he \"assume he is still in training.\" Well that\'s the rub right? What little we do know is that the rules for certain medications and treatments differ based on whether a horse is \"in training\" or not. So, who knows the latest trick double B has up his sleeve to counter last year\'s rule changes that may or may not have affected his horses\' performances at the BC. If he doesn\'t make the BC with West Coast, my guess is that the rest of Baffert\'s brigade may not have a great BC. Something to certainly keep an eye on moving ahead.
Post of the year Fairmont. yeah, magician, he\'s certainly that.
very interesting referencing difference in rules.
With regard to West Coast it seems he should have won in Dubai. The fact that he didn\'t seems less a compliment to the winner than a caution that the outing wast not a good effort from West Coast. It\'s reasonable that he was a victim of the \"speed bias.\"
That said some of BB\'s trainees just seem to stop being competitive and are usually retired post haste. Game of Dude comes to mind and then suddenly if he can\'t get an easy lead he can\'t win.
Of course many of BB\'s stars are retired early in order to cash in on Breeding revenue. In those cases its hard to know what kind of success/longevity they might have had as older horses.
I\'m supposing whatever magic BB uses puts intense strain on his horses and has a cumulative long term negative effect. Understand I\'m just blowing smoke and have no objective explanation. But that does not change the impression I get watching his stable all told.
If the juveniles don\'t excel we don\'t see or hear about them. His success in pointing a horse to a specific race or even series of races is well known what seems to dovetail with that ability is his unwillingness to run a horse that is not shouting \"Put Me In Coach\"
What has not been discussed much is how fast his runners disappear from competiition once it goes back in a race or two. West Coast s/b capable of a competitive summer performance and c/b he is just saving his last bullet for BC or Pegasus.
How can you ever have a great class of horse’s again?
Any decent horse is retired at the drop of a hat and allowance horse’s are running in stakes races due to attrition what do you expect?
Fairmount:
I hate to respond by serving up a heaping helping of word salad, but are you
implying that Baffert will try to avoid out of competition testing (OOCT) by
keeping runners like West Coast out of competition?
You mention the \"rules changes\" in the 2017 BC at Del Mar. The real change was
that, after the Masochistic mess in the 2016 BC (California authorities
apparently knew pre race that Masochistic would likely test positive for
steroids, but felt that they were legally constrained from communicating this
to the BC powers that be), the folks at Breeders Cup decided to take OOCT into
their own hands rather than leaving such testing to the host state/track.
In advance of the 2017 BC at Del Mar, Dora Delgado, speaking on behalf of the
BC, stated that \"The Breeders Cup is on target to test upwards of 90% of all
runners [entered in the BC]...at least one horse from every trainer\'s stable
will be tested...\" In the end, as best as I can tell doing some brief research
and without submitting a FOIL request, 195 horses were subjected to OOCT. I do
not know if this figure includes horses based outside North America. The other
question would be if this figure includes some, or many, horses which did not
compete in the BC. Or am I reading this skeptically, when in truth 195 of the
200 plus BC runners were subjected to OOCT?
Is there any way to assure that all BC competitors will be subjected to OOCT? I
am not certain what the expense involved with OOCT is, but there were
approximately 445 graded stakes scheduled to be run in the United States in 2018
(not counting the BC events)(My opinion: that is way too many graded stakes,
another example of the tail (the Breeding Industry) wagging the dog (the sport
of horse racing)). A vast majority of the runners who will compete
in the 2018 BC at CD will have started at least once in a graded stake. If BC
tested the top three finishers in each of these 445 graded events (a) it is
likely that all US based BC runners will have been OOCT\'d and (b) many more
than 195 runners will have been tested, even taking into account the fact that
many runners will be multiple stakes winners/multiple stakes placed. Some
might argue that such extensive testing is overkill in that many runners will
be tested who do not eventually compete in the BC. Maybe such far reaching OOCT
is something the Jockey Club and the BC could undertake as a joint venture,
because...
\"OOCT is largely used as a deterrent and fact finding enterprise\". These
were the words of Rick Arthur, DVM, of the California Horse Racing Board
(CHRB). Fairmount, you studied law and know that the word deterrent
is another way of saying \"we will arrest a small portion of the criminal
actors, and hope those arrests discourage other potential criminal
actors\". Anyone who has seen the movie \"Deepwater Horizon\" (John Malkovich
excellent as the full speed ahead company man) knows that \"Hope is not a
strategy\". In any case, casting a wider net, performing testing on as many
graded stakes performers as possible, would have a greater deterrent effect.
Could Baffert game the OOCT protocol by keeping a horse such as West Coast on
the bench and giving him one prep close up before the BC, as he did with Secret
Circle in the 2013 BC Sprint (check archives), or even run off an eight month
layoff just off works? I think the fact that he has mentioned the BC as a
possibility is enough to make West Coast a viable candidate for OOCT testing,
especially if he shows up on the work tab with typically fast Baffert works. If
the name of the game was to try to avoid OOCT, I would imagine owner, trainer,
stablehands would have to be sworn to silence regarding the horse\'s future
plans.
Could Baffert win the BC Classic off an eight month layoff? Baffert is known for
being able to work horses faster/longer than most of his cohorts. There are
advantages to working a horse long and fast as opposed to running him/her: The
horse gets the benefit of heart, lung and leg conditioning without the stress
(detention barn protocol, paddock distractions, loading into a full starting
gate) of running in an afternoon/evening race. Horses are not routinely tested
after workouts. Some horses will probably thrive off being teased with a series
of long fast works while not facing race competition. As you know, my theory is
that any pharmacological advantage Baffert might be taking is in the
preparation: many Baffert horses, especially youngsters, have worked faster in
the morning (over a surface that we can assume is not as fast as the afternoon
race surface) than many of their competitors will ever run in the afternoon. Of
course, extenuating circumstances (purse money, Derby points, \"Win and Your In\"
considerations, foolish owners who expect to see their horses race in the
afternoon) dictate that a horse eventually is brought to the starting
gate for pari-mutuel racing.
To summarize, Baffert\'s ability to work horses (especially young horses)long
and fast gives these runners a distinct advantage if and when they make it to
the races. I would not be surprised if PEDs played a part in this \"long and
fast\" regimen. Would it be interesting if some banned race day PEDs were
absolutely banned, and all horses working 6 furlongs or more were tested
after said works? Or if horses working at any distance were randomly tested? If
anything, it would probably prove to be a revealing \"fact finding
enterprise\", to use the words of Rick Arthur.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A magician he says....hmmm....interesting metaphor
> to call a horse trainer of Baffert\'s level a
> magician. I wonder why he would want to bring the
> horse in off works. SC mentions he \"assume he is
> still in training.\" Well that\'s the rub right?
> What little we do know is that the rules for
> certain medications and treatments differ based on
> whether a horse is \"in training\" or not. So, who
> knows the latest trick double B has up his sleeve
> to counter last year\'s rule changes that may or
> may not have affected his horses\' performances at
> the BC. If he doesn\'t make the BC with West
> Coast, my guess is that the rest of Baffert\'s
> brigade may not have a great BC. Something to
> certainly keep an eye on moving ahead.
A few words about the Baffert Brigade:
2018: Baffert Graded Stakes Wins January 1- August 1: 13
2017: Baffert Graded Stakes Wins January 1- August 1: 23
As I have said before, if Baffert wants to slow down, downsize, cut back, he
may end up training a \"boutique barn\" comprised exclusively of high priced
2YOs and 3YO Triple Crown prospects. But looking at the graded stake stat
above, and taking into consideration that 3 of the 2018 graded stake wins have
been retired, Baffert\'s possible lack of success at the 2018 BC may just be a
function of him not having the horses this year.
Breeders Cup Wins, 2010-2017
Aidan O\'Brien..8
Chad Brown.....8
Bob Baffert....7
Todd Pletcher..6
Steve Asmussen.5
Bill Mott......4
I am sorry if these statistics might have an error or two. It is sometimes
difficult to compose TG posts while people are milling around your desk
clucking about deadlines and filing dates. My point is that by no means should
one consider Baffert a dominant BC trainer.
That being said, and this is difficult for a New Yorker to say, Baffert\'s three
consecutive BC Classic wins with three different horses has to be mentioned
along with Woody\'s five consecutive Belmonts (and Oscar S. Barrera winning six
consecutive races with Teriyaki Stake -- all in the month of March, 1986) as
being among the great training feats of all time.
I could not let this one pass and setting aside Oscar Barrera for a moment:
The $2 parlay on WS 5 consecutive Belmont Stakes would have gotten you $2891.70. Baffert\'s 3 BC\'s: $65 and change.
Look at it another way: Set the odds at either winning their respective race before the start of the year at 20-1. Then the odds of what Baffert has done is 8000-1 while Stephens is at 3.2 million to 1.
Even lower the odds of Stephens winning each to 10-1 instead of 20-1 puts him at 100,000-1 - still dwarfing what Baffert did in 3 years.
Use the number of horses in the field as the probability that each horse wins the respective race: Baffert:1 in 1134, Stephens 1 in 199,650, a leap of 176 to 1 to get from Baffert to Stephens! This doesn\'t even take into account Baffert\'s multiple entries (don\'t recall if Stephens had any!) which would reduce his odds considerably. Obviously it is an achievement in most cases to get a horse to this race (which is why you can use any of the other metrics above!)
Baffert pointed to the BC\'s. Stephen\'s first winner, Conquistador Cielo, won the Met mile just 5 days earlier and under Baffert would likely not even been entered in the Belmont.
If Arrogate (or West Coast or Collected or Mubtaahij) had won last year, Baffert would now be in a position to simply try for five. But he failed with the favorite and two others at odds less than 6-1.
Compare them as winning trainers and Baffert comes out on top. Great for the sport, tough call for me.
But comparing only the streaks, I rest my case.
Skitimber:
Great post. And yes Woody had multiple entries in at least one Belmont. In 1985,
Creme Fraiche became the first gelding to win the Belmont. Stephan\'s Odyssey, trained by Woody, completed the exacta.
The story goes that Woody was sitting with the owners of both CF (Elizabeth Moran) and SO (Henryk deKwiatkowski). Stephen\'s Odyssey made a big sweeping move late in the race and deKwiatkowski jumped out of his seat and began hugging Woody. Woody looked at deKwiatkowski and said \"Now go hug Mrs. Moran, her horse just went by yours.\"
skitimber Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I could not let this one pass and setting aside
> Oscar Barrera for a moment:
>
> The $2 parlay on WS 5 consecutive Belmont Stakes
> would have gotten you $2891.70. Baffert\'s 3
> BC\'s: $65 and change.
>
> Look at it another way: Set the odds at either
> winning their respective race before the start of
> the year at 20-1. Then the odds of what Baffert
> has done is 8000-1 while Stephens is at 3.2
> million to 1.
>
> Even lower the odds of Stephens winning each to
> 10-1 instead of 20-1 puts him at 100,000-1 - still
> dwarfing what Baffert did in 3 years.
>
> Use the number of horses in the field as the
> probability that each horse wins the respective
> race: Baffert:1 in 1134, Stephens 1 in 199,650, a
> leap of 176 to 1 to get from Baffert to Stephens!
> This doesn\'t even take into account Baffert\'s
> multiple entries (don\'t recall if Stephens had
> any!) which would reduce his odds considerably.
> Obviously it is an achievement in most cases to
> get a horse to this race (which is why you can use
> any of the other metrics above!)
>
> Baffert pointed to the BC\'s. Stephen\'s first
> winner, Conquistador Cielo, won the Met mile just
> 5 days earlier and under Baffert would likely not
> even been entered in the Belmont.
>
> If Arrogate (or West Coast or Collected or
> Mubtaahij) had won last year, Baffert would now be
> in a position to simply try for five. But he
> failed with the favorite and two others at odds
> less than 6-1.
>
> Compare them as winning trainers and Baffert comes
> out on top. Great for the sport, tough call for
> me.
>
> But comparing only the streaks, I rest my case.
Additional factors to consider that make Woody\'s feat more impressive are:
(a) the Belmont is only open to 3yos....if you get injured or miss it, no trying a second time....there is a much smaller pool of horses that could be Belmont winners (factoring in 3yo only, time of year, uncommon distance)
(b) the BC Classic is open to all ages and comes at a time of year that is much easier to make and is at a distance that is not nearly as unusual as the Belmont distance....much larger pool of horses to draw from
(c) how many years in a row would Kelso, Forego, John Henry* have won the BC Classic if it existed at the time? How does that impact the feat? In theory, with two great geldings of the right vintages, you could win 6 BC Classics in a row with only 2 horses -- seems one feat is more reliant on the trainer and less on the horses than the other feat.
Maybe I am missing something else?
*John Henry was entered in the first Breeders Cup, but scratched due to career ending injury
Richie,
Speaking of Henry deKwiatkowski, he also owned Conquistador Cielo (1st in the streak and Danzig Connection. (the last).
And he owned Danzig who won his only 3 career starts.
Not bad for a Polish immigrant
Was present for Danzig\'s last effort...which was a 7f dash at Belmont a little while back when I had a full head of hair...:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIXV-mHds5w
Richiebee, (sorry for the delayed response time)
You know I value and respect your well thought out opinions. I could write an enormous amount on this subject with theories and ideas I\'ve created trying to explain much of the Baffert magic. I\'ll try to keep it focused to make my point. There is no better word to describe him than magician as Gary West artfully provided to bloodhorse in the interview I referenced. Sometimes magicians\' tricks are unveiled or uncovered. I am not a vet, not a chemistry expert, and not in the know with any testing. I\'ve never understood magic and I\'ve never worked with a horse besides a retired lazy quarter horse my dad owned the first 25 years of my life as a pet. I\'m just a dumb old handicapper with a bit of law background you referenced. It is my belief that Baffert is one of those guys that will follow the letter of the law but not necessarily the spirit of the law. I can\'t unveil or uncover his tricks but I sure can see patterns that indicate enough to imply certain issues with his trainees. One of my best angles I\'ve shared with a close group of friends I\'ll share here for the purpose of making my point. And it is still useful through Labor Day likely.
At Del Mar in Graded Stakes since the start of the summer 2017 meet (Summer of \'17, BC \'17, Nov. \'17, and Summer, \'18 to date), BB has a record of: 1 for 32. The one win was in the Pacific Classic when Collected beat Arrogate in a field of 7 that included 4 tomato cans as this site has been known to call such horses and Accelerate who wasn\'t a star yet. I doubt anyone on here can even believe that stat is true. But it is. In the previous 50 starters at Del Mar prior to last summer in graded stakes, he had 13 winners for a cool 26 percent. (Did the competition get tougher in Del Mar graded stakes since the start of last summer\'s meet or did something else happen? I bet the magician and his assistant know but would never tell you!)
In other news, I saw that Baffert is shipping Marley\'s Freedom to Saratoga rather than running at Del Mar. She earned a 105 Beyer in May at Santa Anita. I guess Baffert isn\'t pointing for the Del Mar meet. Or maybe she just doesn\'t like the surface.
In NY, Baffert\'s record has been almost impeccable the last two years. Just ask any of the locals in your neighborhood about his work with Hoppertunity in NY, Drefong, Arrogate, West Coast among many others. I don\'t have the NY numbers handy but his graded stakes record there after shipping across the country back and forth is out of this world. If memory serves, in the last two Belmont Stakes Festivals, Baffert has won with West Coast, Abel Tasman, Hoppertunity, Justify, among others. On Travers Day the last two years, he has won with Arrogate, (2nd with American Freedom), West Coast, Drefong, and Abel Tasman in the CCA in \'17 at Saratoga among others I believe. Yet just one graded stakes win at Del Mar. And the margins of those NY graded stakes victories weren\'t all by just a nose.
On another note, Baffert\'s record in MSW races at Del Mar is spectacular given how everyone points for that meet out there. In MSW races the past two years at Del Mar, he is 19 for 73, 26 percent (the same as his graded stakes record there until last summer\'s meet kicked in). Many include the same horses that don\'t run well in graded stakes out there after breaking their maiden or don\'t run in graded stakes there at all.
For me, I see patterns. The pattern I see is not congruent with the idea that he *only* works his horses with an advantage that allows him to race them faster than everyone else. Some have theorized that PED\'s explain his success. I don\'t know any of that whatsoever. But it is interesting that he has \"come up with\" three of the greatest horses of all time in the last 5 years. In Arrogate\'s old age of 4, he fell apart as we all know after his trip to Dubai. Must have been the Dubai bounce. It had nothing to do with jurisdiction, or rather, Venue Issues or the 6 month steroid withdrawal rule that applied for the 2018 BC (but not the 2017 BC when he didn\'t race him between the Travers and the BC).
I don\'t have the answers but my belief is the rules for different tracks, different states, different jurisdictions and venues varies widely and greatly with respect to testing and security in graded stakes events esp in the BC. And esp at Del Mar. And a magician knows where he can hide a card up his sleeve or misdirect the audience\'s attention and when and where he can\'t. I guess we call that the art of knowing \"where\" to spot his horses. Of course, no rule is hard and fast as there are always moving parts in this industry.
So Marley\'s Freedom heads to Saratoga. The Best Pal just happened and Baffert didn\'t run anyone. In last week\'s 2yo filly stakes, the Sorrento, he had no starters but has 3 future 2yo filly superstars in his barn in Chasing Yesterday, Mother Mother, and Der Lu. I guess he just doesn\'t point for the Del Mar Graded stakes schedule. Oh wait....was the Breeders Cup there last year??? I hope I\'ve at least made a point as to why I personally see him as a magician like his owner Gary West does with some facts that back up my assertions.
There is much more I could say and write about but time is always of the essence. I have more examples and facts but I can\'t give away all the secrets here. I know I didn\'t address all of your issues, that this wasn\'t perfectly coherent but I wanted to get a few ideas out there so that you (and others obviously) understand where I\'m coming from when I made my innuendos about the Magic Man!! Now you see me, now you don\'t!
On a completely unrelated note, did you see a vet making the point to the CHRB that having OOC testing would lead to a loss of integrity in horse racing? It is hard to believe this is a viable stance but I wonder who the vets are seeking to protect with a stance like that. The horses of course right?????? Sarcasm (for those that can\'t discern it in written text) was used in that last line.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/228631/chrb-makes-progress-on-out-of-competition-testing?utm_source=BHTW&utm_mediumsocial=
As for the other two big name Magicians in the game, one is headed in a terrific direction sweeping graded stakes trifectas on turf all over the place while the other is floundering at Saratoga with his specialty, 2yo\'s at the Spa. Funny fact, I don\'t think either one has started a horse at Kentucky Downs the last few years even with their monster purses and I honestly can\'t figure out exactly why not.
\"At Del Mar in Graded Stakes since the start of the summer 2017 meet (Summer of \'17, BC \'17, Nov. \'17, and Summer, \'18 to date), BB has a record of: 1 for 32.\"
How many 2nds in that period?
Was Collected the 1? Baffert beat himself? I wonder if the guy who had the $1,000,000 in the Show Pool on Arrogate knew this?
A couple of interesting questions. Rich, I\'m sure you know the answer to your question but I\'m happy to oblige.
At Del Mar since the start of the 2017 Summer meet, Baffert\'s total record in graded stakes races is: 32-1-11-5 I believe. I\'ve double checked it several times and believe it is accurate but excuse me if the P/S numbers aren\'t perfect as it is difficult to gather this data the way I do it.
As for Baffert\'s win with Collected and SC\'s tongue in cheek question. At that time, BB was 0 for 7 in graded stakes to start the 2017 Summer meet I believe. Not too many people had probably picked up on it just yet.
Now, to take a bigger look and comparison to his NY graded stakes success, Baffert is 24-12-4-2 during the last two years in graded stakes in NY. That\'s a 50 percent win percentage at the most competitive graded stakes circuit in the country (I think most would agree with this assertion about the NYRA circuit).
A few of these horses have run in New York AND Del Mar. They include Abel Tasman, Arrogate, Hoppertunity, Drefong, and Mor Spirit among some others like West Coast.
Abel Tasman in Baffert\'s care is 8-4-3-0 after leaving Callaghan\'s barn. In New York, she is 3 for 3. Her lone Del Mar start for BB, 2nd.
Arrogate at Saratoga won by 13 1/2 lengths breaking the track record for 1 1/4 miles. 4th at Del Mar, 2nd at Del Mar, 5th at Del Mar BC.
Hoppertunity in NY 2 wins and a 4th. At Del Mar since the summer of 17 meet started, one start at this meet and finished 2nd nearly 5 lengths behind the winner at 3-5.
Drefong in NY, 2 for 2 in G1 races with a combined winning margin of 9 lengths. The two starts at Del Mar during the time period I mention he finished 6th at 1.40-1 and 9th after dropping the jockey at odds of 1.80-1.
Mor Spirit in NY, 1 for 1 with a G1 win by 6 plus. His lone start at Del Mar, 8th by 14 as the favorite.
Same horses at Saratoga/Belmont versus Del Mar with VERY different results. One all the way across the country for him and the other a few hours south of his SA home base and he has stalls the entire time during the Del Mar meeting.
The winning margins of the horses for the 12 winning graded stakes races in NY are: 7 1/2, 2 1/4, 1 3/4, 3 3/4, 1, 3 1/4, 6 1/4, 4, 3 1/4, 3 1/4, 13 1/2, head. Convincing wins.
The margin for the 11 2nd place finishers at Del Mar in graded stakes behind the winner are: 3/4, neck, 1/2, 4 1/2, 2 1/4, 4 3/4, 3 1/4, 1 1/2, 2 1/2, 6 3/4, 1/2. Just didn\'t have the finishing punch the horses in NY have....some of the VERY same horses.
I know JB would use a figure comparison to make these comparisons and that is fine and likely more detailed. But the win percentage is so glaring including the margins it seems obvious that NY is more favorable to his \"program\" than Del Mar is when it comes to winning graded stakes. As I\'ve said, this year\'s BC will be very interesting since it is at CD but the rule is still in place re: the 6 month withdrawal period.
Fairmount if I\'m every in your company I need to buy you a drink. This is some great info and what this board should be all about. How people can\'t look at this and say something nefarious is going on is beyond belief to me. Problem is, Baffert is just too big to fail.
Fairmount
Thanks for that, very telling
Fairmount:
Appreciate your dogged pursuit of the \"Great White\". Quint would be proud, and
here\'s to swimmin\' with bow legged women.
I\'ll pick and choose the points to address, and you know quite well that I feel
comfortable arguing both sides of an issue without any emotional attachment,
except for one statement. You called Arrogate, American Pharaoh and
Justify \"Three of the greatest horses of all time.\" Even given the fact that it
is rather impossible to compare human and equine athletes from different
generations, I suggest you take some time during your Saratoga sojourn to visit
the National Racing Hall of Fame. I will concede that Arrogate is right up
there with Ghostzapper among the best of this century. I will step out on a
limb and opine that Secretariat (champion on two surfaces, set world
records at 12 furlongs turf and dirt; pretty sure he set stake records in all 3
legs of Triple Crown); Spectacular Bid (his 4YO campaign possibly the greatest
in American racing history; carried weight and set track records at 7f and 10f)
and Forego (8 Eclipse Awards, 34 wins from 57 lifetime starts, all accomplished
on a scary bad set of wheels) would all have to be listed above the 3 Bafferts
on any GOAT list I would compose.
That\'s when a sport was a sport. I can\'t hold it against Secretariat,
Spectacular Bid and Forego that they did not have a \"Facebook\" page while they
were racing.
With regards to Pletcher and his precocious 2YO sprinters at the Spa, let\'s
look at the performance of his 3YOs in recent years. A couple of Belmont wins
and a near miss. Yes \"only\" two Derby wins since 2010. His success in the preps
and disappointments in the Derby have been well documented. In 2018 Pletcher
trainees won the La Derby, Wood, Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby. What did the
TAP trained winners of these four races have in common other than not having
much impact in the Triple Crown races? None of them started at the Spa as a
2YO. Audible was the first to make it to the races, beginning his career on
September 27. So while it is fun (I guess?) to continue the \"Magician\" theme,
is it possible that TAP, after burning through a lot of Competitive Edges,
decided that preparing 2YOs for dominant wins at 5 furlongs at the Spa was
counterproductive if the goal was to develop a classic winner?
The Del Mar stats are good, even if they only cover a two year period. But what
if Baffert comes back to Del Mar in 2019 as a 26% trainer? Does that mean that
the pachyderm is no longer in the room?
That was my thought, that TAP changed something because he wasn\'t happy with the long term results.
No way they all just stopped blasting out of the gate at random.
Could be whatever was building up their speed early, got pulled from the program.
Guy’s,
No doubt he has changed his program and it started last year as ðŸ mentioned with his 2 big guns. TAP runners are no secret what so ever, every clocker’s eyes are glued to them on top of that Angel Cordero Johnny V’s agent, still gets on few in the AM to gallop has all his gambling buddies on speed dial.
Last year 2 days before opening day I was in his barn with a friend that is/has been involved with quite a few high profile horses with him for awhile. From Todd’s mouth Mojovation was his best 2 yr old that was race ready going in week 2 and Honey Glow & Machismo we’re both good and out opening weekend. I believe one of them won at a very short price and the other 2 got beat at odds on, only 1 of the 3 did not break well and thought nothing of it at the time. There was no mention of any of his other babies that were relevant in the Derby preps, nor did they run at The Spa.
This year almost all of his bad breakers had only one gate work. One of the 2 baby winners this year had 2 gate works. (not looking any of this up) Not only have they broke bad bad hardly a one has run a step after?
Obviously a hot topic in the backyard and at Sunday’s seminar with TG Jeff who had some good points about bad breakers being sore in their hind quarters. Before the meet started every single trainer was complaining about how deep and tiring the main track was, all the babies that worked over it came back gassed and beat up. I felt like an idiot telling TGJB that on opening day and day 2 May have been the fastest raw times of the meet! Obviously they took a little off the top🤫
Todd & JJ Pletcher pick out a pretty good number of their yearlings for Todd’s owners. They didn’t lose their eye for horse flesh over night, JJ didn’t forget how to get the babies race ready and Todd didn’t forget how to train. One of my buddies left You’re to Blame out the pick 4 yesterday simply because he was sick of seeing B+ clocker reports on TAP’s that can’t break or run a step.....
Maybe it’s a simple as the white Mercedes hasn’t been seen at Oklahoma this year 😎
Good stuff Frank,
Fortunately , its not rocket science, you play the hands they are dealing until they change the deck.
Richie B,
I personally don\'t believe they are three of the greatest. But they accomplished things that certainly rank right up there with achievements of some historical greats whether they were on a level \"playing field\" or not. But when your view of Baffert\'s success is as cynical as mine, it is unlikely I will ever believe Pharoah, Arrogate, and Justify should be even mentioned in the same sentence or paragraph as the ones you mentioned.
Specifically, Secretariat. I know Bid was great and have watched some of his replays. I\'ve read about Forego but just can\'t really say I have any thought of where he would rank. All that \"bee-ing\" said, no quarrel here with keeping those 3 out of the top list of Goat\'s.
I\'m a Nicklaus over Woods guy. I\'m a Ruth over Bonds guy. I\'m Pele over Messi/Ronaldo/Neymar guy. I\'m a Michael over Lebron guy. I\'m a Bob Gibson over Roger Clemens guy (even as a Cubs fan) .....So if you see the theme, I\'m certainly a Secretariat over these modern day Baffert\'s magic guy.
These are moving parts in the industry as I said. BB could rattle off 4 straight graded stakes at Del Mar in a moment\'s notice. If so, I look for other spots to try to beat heavy, heavy favorites when I can as a handicapper. I mentioned my belief that something changed the day Drefong dropped his jock near the start of the Del Mar meet in \'17 to another TG guy. He thought I was crazy to think Baffert\'s horses weren\'t running well at Del Mar to the extent I did. I\'ve been following it ever since.
By the time justify won the triple crown, I was watching it with the same awe I reserve for the acts on Penn & Tellers Fool Us.
That last one is funny. I watched with about the same convincing awe of one of these made for TV mini-series. It happened but it doesnt mean it was real.
Fairmont how do you explain Bafferts poor DelMar success rate versus say Browns who did pretty well last Breeders Cup. (Rushing Fall, Good Magic, Beach Patrol, even ship Analyze It out Later). Is Browns \"blood work\" he is always talking about cleansing the levels of alien agents better in his post and pre race testing....
Forego also carried crazy weight in many of the stakes wins, in the 70\'s handicap horses paid the price for greatness, like the time forego was beaten by Arbees boy in the 1974 Met mile, Arbees boy carried 112, Forego 134. Forego was one of the best horses I ever saw, and I have been around a long time. He ran 4th in Secretariats 1972 derby win, and his comment was Raced Green. He ran in an allowance race on Belmont day, and set a track record for 1 1/6 miles. So while Forego was not the best 3 year old (Secretariat, of course), his record as handicap horse was unmatched. Of course today, no trainer would ever race his horse while giving away so much weight.
How many races would a Forego have won if he carried equal weight with the rest of the field?
I had that exacta on Belmont day ,if I am not mistaken a horse name Cutlass reality ran 2nd ,I think the exacta came back about 6$,everyone had it
I also remember one day the mutual clerks went on strike so there was no betting at the Big A that day they still drew over 6000 people just to seethe MIGHTY ONE run
To me seeing FOREGO make that big wide run on the far turn (crowd would go crazy) was the most exciting thing Ive seen in sports
long time ago
philywheel
the name of the horse that ran 2nd was Cutlass(just got it)
i dont remember when my daughter is tho
philywheel
I was 10 years old in 1977 and I begged my father to take me to Saratoga and watch Forego run. That morning it was pouring but my father relented and took me anyway. Anyone who was there will remember how bad it was and how bad Forego ran that day. It didn\'t matter to me. I remember it being so dark at post time that they turned on the Grandstand lights. I just took my ten year old son to the Saratoga the other day. He didn\'t care about takeout percentages or \"magician\" trainers and for that particular day either did I. I just hope the sport is around for him to enjoy in 40 years.
Pacific Classic BB has a first time starter with no running lines.
Hmmm?
remember that day well, my father put 500$ to win on him, went into OTB on sutphin Blvd. bought the ticket ,told myfather it was sloppy track, he got mad at me but kept the ticket anyway, also went to monmouth park, forget the race, finished 3rd ,I think Erins boy beat him that day
when you mention forego you hit a soft spot with me
Philywheel
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pacific Classic BB has a first time starter with
> no running lines.
> Hmmm?
What\'s his name - The Black Stallion?
No.
It\'s Juicefy
I agree that his wide move was always exciting. Check out the 1974 Carter, where he came from last to beat Mr. Prospector at 7F.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69mBgbkuIfk
wonder what the sheet # wouldhave been for that race ,considering the weight and the ground loss, Gustines eased him up the final 1/16
amazing
Philywheel
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I will concede
> that Arrogate is right up
> there with Ghostzapper among the best of this
> century. I will step out on a
> limb and opine that Secretariat (champion on two
> surfaces, set world
> records at 12 furlongs turf and dirt; pretty sure
> he set stake records in all 3
> legs of Triple Crown); Spectacular Bid (his 4YO
> campaign possibly the greatest
> in American racing history; carried weight and set
> track records at 7f and 10f)
> and Forego (8 Eclipse Awards, 34 wins from 57
> lifetime starts, all accomplished
> on a scary bad set of wheels) would all have to be
> listed above the 3 Bafferts
> on any GOAT list I would compose.
>
> That\'s when a sport was a sport. I can\'t hold it
> against Secretariat,
> Spectacular Bid and Forego that they did not have
> a \"Facebook\" page while they
> were racing.
>
FYI on the topic of the GOAT, or at least the greatest single season campaign -- Saratoga Live ran an interesting piece on Dr. Fager a couple weeks ago (8/3/18) about a gravel-voiced longtime Dodgers peanut vendor named Richard Aller who’s been on a lifelong crusade to make the case that Dr. Fager\'s 1968 campaign was the greatest in the history of the sport.
Aller, who was somewhat of a Don Rickles-esque insult comic, was such a beloved fixture amongst the Dodger faithful that after once being fired for “misappropriation of peanuts†when he attempted to resell two bags of pilfered salted nuts he had received from a fellow vendor’s lunch allotment, that the fans put together a petition along with his fellow vendors and successfully lobbied for his reinstatement.
Like many of us, Aller fell in love with racing after his Dad took him to the track when he was a kid. He became a huge fan of Dr. Fager, and after John Nerud was made aware of his lifelong obsession with the horse, the two started up what became a 25 year friendship. Every year up to 2013, Aller and Charles Fager (the doctor the horse was named after who saved Nerud’s life) went to Nerud’s birthday, up until his 100th birthday.
Says Aller of Dr. Fager:
“The fastest horse of all-time. Able to accelerate quarter-mile splits faster than any horse that ever raced. He could accelerate a quarter-mile split seven lengths faster than Secretariat.
The only horse ever to be Horse of the Year, Handicap Horse of the Year, Sprinter of the Year, and Grass Horse of the Year. Beating two Horses of the Year. Carrying no less than 130. As much as 139. Got faster as he carried more weight, defying the laws of physics.
He could sprint, he could come home, he could come around horses. He did it all. But he didn’t do it in the Triple Crown, so he’ll never get his just due.
I didn’t know quite what he was in 1968. I began to get enraged at the distortions that were made. Let me historically define that. Dr. Fager ran in 1968. Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy were assassinated. Vietnam war. Vietnam war protests…Race riots all over the country. A riot at the Democratic National Convention. A protest at the Olympics in Mexico City. The most tumultuous year in 20th century history and he was not on national television. Secretariat ran in 1973. The Triple Crown was on national television. Horse racing was consumed by television. And so Secretariat became visibly a shrine.
Dr. Fager got tested every way imaginable. It didn’t matter anywhere, any place, any time, any conditions, any weight, quality of competition, Dr. Fager’s there every time.
And by the way, I don’t say that Dr. Fager was the greatest horse of all time. All I said was one season.â€
As Aller also notes, his lone defeat in 1968 was at the hands of Damascus, a race in which he carried 135lbs and was forced to contend with Damascus’s rabbit Hedevar.
Dr. Fager’s 1968 Season
7 wins in 8 starts
Never carried less than 130lbs
Horse of the Year
Champion Handicap Horse
Outstanding Sprinter
Co-Champion Turf Horse
Stakes Wins
Roseben Stakes
Californian Stakes
Suburban Handicap
Whitney Stakes
Washington Park Handicap (1M in 132:1, a new world record carrying 134lbs, winning by 10 under no urging)
United Nations Handicap
Vosburgh
Unfortunately Dr. Fager was just a little before my time so I can\'t really judge for myself off personal experience, but my Dad always said he was the greatest horse he’d ever seen, period.
As with most sports, these discussions seem to be best characterized as best of their generation, as opposed to GOAT. The never-ending Lebron/Jordan/Kareem/Wilt discussion a case in point.
If TGs are to be believed, the track records of yesteryear are not faster than todays best. Wilt would not dominate today like he did. Dr. Fager might not either.
Dr. Fager\'s world-record mile at Arlington is at Youtube, with Phil Georgeff\'s amazing call. The great thing is to hear the mic pick up someone muttering \'wow\' in the background after Dr. Fager crosses the finish line, followed by someone else saying \'this is a racehorse.\' He apparently got the second quarter in 20 3/5 seconds... Well worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wVBNbmcaAE
Frank Whiteley intended to send out Hedevar as a rabbit in the Suburban as well, when Dr. Fager, carrying 132 pounds to Damascus\'s 133, won by two in 1:59 3/5. When he was scratched going to the gate, Charley Hatten described it thus: “Then, Hedevar took a couple of bad steps, and trainer Frank Whiteley took the hasenpfeffer out of Nerud’s cabbage.â€
Mr. Frank said Saratoga was a weird track when it got wet. He told the jock if Forego didn’t like it don’t push him. I wasn’t there but I’m guessing it was Vasquez.
I was there, the jock was a guy named Shoemaker.
Another Great Forego/Shoemaker moment:
> Excerpted from Patrick Robinson and Richard
> Stone Reeves DECADE OF CHAMPIONS.
>
> \".. the Marlboro Cup of 1976. Saturday, September
> 13, the Belmont track sloppy, Forego was listed to
> carry 137 pounds, giving 18 pounds to Honest
> Pleasure and up to 28 pounds to the other nine
> horses in the field...\"
>
> \" The 137 pounds was the second highest weight
> allocated to any horse in a major New York race in
> 90 years. Secretary [Tommy] Trotter observed \"If
> Forego gets hurt out there today... that crowd
> could very easily string me up from one of those
> big trees in the paddock...by the thumbs, or
> worse\"
>
> \"All through the day, the worried figures of
> Frank Whitely and Martha Gerry could be seen
> talking earnestly. Everyone knew they were
> discussing taking Forego out. Shoemaker refused to
> give an opinion one way or the other...\"
>
> \"...splashing into the clubhouse turn, Honest
> Pleasure, loving the ground, was out in front by
> two lengths... Forego was way back in eighth
> position, looking utterly unhappy and rapidly
> dropping himself out of it altogether\"
>
> \"Into the final long sweeping Belmont turn,
> Forego seemed to have given up; he was twelve
> lengths behind the leader. Shoemaker, covered in
> mud, considered the position helpless since he
> could scarcely see the tearaway Honest Pleasure
> through the screen of mud and spray being thrown
> back at them\"
>
> \"Suddenly, at the top of the stretch, Forego
> decided to run. He set off awkwardly, running
> wide, struggling to get a hold of the surface,
> like a big speedboat with both propellers bouncing
> out of the water. Finally, he straightened out and
> gallantly set sail for home, racing fiercely by
> himself on the outside, carrying his huge burden
> all alone-- except that, in a sense, all of us
> went with him\"
>
> \"Down the stretch he charged, galloping towards a
> crowd that did not believe he could possibly get
> into the first three. Martha Gerry had put down
> her binoculars. Frank Whitely muttered something about
> \'We\'ve had it this time\' \"
>
> \"But Forego was still there, eating up the ground
> with every stride...Shoemaker, keeping Forego
> perfectly balanced, had his stick poised to lash
> the big gelding to the wire. All the instincts
> gathered in the riding of 7,000 winners told him
> \'Go to the whip. He can\'t make it, but there\'s
> nothing to lose now.\' But the Shoe recalled
> another voice shrieking in the confusion of the
> moment \'For god\'s sake, don\'t touch him. He\'s
> doing his best\'\".
>
> \"Through the final furlong they hurtled, passing
> four horses. Ten feet from the wire, Honest
> Pleasure still had it; three feet from the wire,
> he still had it. But on the wire, Forego\'s big
> stern head, covered in mud, hit the front like a
> mortar shell to win by about 10 inches.\"
Ah the Shoe. Frank loved Shoemaker. I just remember him presenting at Jacinto Vasquez’s HOF induction ceremony and I wrongly assumed it was him. Here’s a nice piece about Forego from the Paulick Report.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/forego-he-just-knew-where-the-wire-was/
Beautiful story Richie. I hate to sound maudlin but I am Italian. Those were the days of true champions. They tackled the toughest tasks and they triumphed. They gave us memories. God how I wish for handicap races again.