I follow both boards closely and bet the Haskell using both TGJB and Robes, though the only reason I cashed was because I left Iwinski\'s horse on the ticket despite advice from both that he would bounce.
It\'s a funny game. I have $4,900 worth of uncashed Spa tickets (lost SS card) due in large part to Hardoon\'s opening Saturday seminar; but when JB takes a stand I must listen carefully.
I post infrequently but while I believe using sophisticated speed figures is crucial to beating the game, I also believe that it is virtually impossible in many instances to produce them. Too many sore horses, oddly run races and weak/short horse fields.
I confess that I use rags less because I am convinced they are superior but because I like to play NY and MD, where I think their figures are solid. And, frankly, I found myself using too many horses based on trainer stats and other tangents I followed from TG. I also like the smaller sheets.
Anyway, I\'ll be at the Spa on Friday and saturday next. (Alabama day) and maybe the final weekend. If TGJB is going to be at Siros, I\'d love to hang for a drink.
And TGJB, when you\'re at the spa, why not host a companion seminar?
Peace,
TK
First of all, let\'s talk nicknames. When I hit the Ragozin office at the ripe old age of 20, I was The Kid for a while. Then Cauthen came along, and he was The Kid, and I wasn\'t. Now you. Write your own material.
When I go up to Saratoga, or leave the office in general, I am looking to get away from stress, not find more-- that\'s the main reason I don\'t enter handicapping contests, other than ones I can play from my desk while working. Anyway, I see no reason to give a seminar when I can be nursing a hangover instead.
On a quasi-related note, they tell me the DVD of the Vegas Expo is done. I\'ll definitely need a drink to watch that one.
The elements you mention (along with some others) certainly do make figure making difficult, but I think if you saw how tight the data base is (which you can only see by working with it, not by betting with it), you would see it\'s not impossible.
There is a very important distinction to be made between Friedman\'s position and mine about Snookie boy. On Ragozin, it didn\'t matter whether he bounced or not-- he was too slow, and had absolutely no shot. On ours, at the weights and figuring for ground saved from the rail, he was one of the very fastest horses in the race if he ran his race. In my play for the race-- both my own and the analysis-- I was playing Pies Prospect to run a 1. That meant that the horses I was going to protect under were the ones that could beat him if he ran his race, and realistically there were only 4-- LH (by far the most likely), RHT, MSB, and Tap Day. My play in the analysis (and the bulk of my own play) was a win bet, a big exacta under LH (my best result), and tris LH/RHT, MSB, TD/Pies Prospect. If you used just Ragozin, you absolutely could not have used MSB, and would not have hit the race.
I\'ll be at Saratoga that weekend. Should be sitting in sec J row D, and I\'ll undoubtedly be at Siro\'s at some point.