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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Mathcapper on July 22, 2018, 05:50:05 PM

Title: Monomoy Marginal Money
Post by: Mathcapper on July 22, 2018, 05:50:05 PM
$$$

Monomoy Girl was just over even money going into the gate for the Oaks. She was 1/2 in the Will Pays, so she figured to take a drop in the last few moments, and indeed she did.

 A total of $545K had been bet in the win pool as the horses loaded. Another $214K was bet in the last flash, which represented 28% of the final $760K win pool. $170K of that last $214K (80% of the marginal pool) was bet on MG to win, with only $44K bet on all the other contenders combined, including only $25K on Midnight Bisou, who up to that point had been the 3/5 favorite. That equated to marginal odds on MG of around 1/25 (that’s one-to-twenty five), with the next highest marginal odds being MB at 6-1.

That’s some serious last-minute money.
Title: Re: Monomoy Marginal Money
Post by: Strike on July 22, 2018, 07:20:38 PM
Mathcapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> $$$
>
> Monomoy Girl was just over even money going into
> the gate for the Oaks. She was 1/2 in the Will
> Pays, so she figured to take a drop in the last
> few moments, and indeed she did.
>
>  A total of $545K had been bet in the win pool as
> the horses loaded. Another $214K was bet in the
> last flash, which represented 28% of the final
> $760K win pool. $170K of that last $214K (80% of
> the marginal pool) was bet on MG to win, with only
> $44K bet on all the other contenders combined,
> including only $25K on Midnight Bisou, who up to
> that point had been the 3/5 favorite. That equated
> to marginal odds on MG of around 1/25 (that’s
> one-to-twenty five), with the next highest
> marginal odds being MB at 6-1.
>
> That’s some serious last-minute money.

The same thing albeit to a lesser degree is occurring at Del Mar. What is a bit troubling is the seriously bet down horses have been winning. Everyone is noticing and it is not good for racing.
Title: Re: Monomoy Marginal Money
Post by: Boscar Obarra on July 22, 2018, 08:44:52 PM
The winner paid the right price. There was no \'bet down\' ala the Servis winner.

  Where the \'extra\' money on Midnight Bisou came from , is the mystery.

  I have theories, but don\'t want to be poked with a poison  umbrella tip while strolling, so I\'ll not post them .
Title: Re: Monomoy Marginal Money
Post by: atakante on July 23, 2018, 09:59:55 AM
Probably Bill Benter\'s cousin in Cayman Islands...